The Mucked Nuts Guide to Betting Super Bowl Novelty Props - 2018 Edition

Welcome to the Mucked Nuts Guide to Betting Super Bowl Novelty Props – 2018 Edition! You’ve probably noticed some people AGgressively selling their props packAGes on Twitter, but like all previous editions of the Guide this one is FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE – that’s nine frees. And like previous editions of the Guide, this year’s Guide will focus on the novelty props offered at a handful of offshore sportsbooks. I’ll also include my Triple Sperm Bank Guarantee and my World Famous Casket-Carrying Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Century.

National Anthem Props

1.      Length of National Anthem

I normally don’t play the anthem length prop, but it is possible to find middles on this bet if you have the temerity to do so. Alas, right now you can bet over 122 seconds at +100 on 5Dimes and under 123 seconds at +100 on TopBet

Official Play: Over 122 seconds (5Dimes) and Under 123 seconds (TopBet)

2.      Pink’s Cleavage

This is a real tough one. In my extensive research on Google photos, there are photos of Pink showing cleavage and photos of her not showing cleavage. Would it be considered disrespectful to show cleavage during the anthem? Or is it disrespectful to not show it during the anthem? In this day in age, who really knows. Both 5Dimes and BetOnline have Yes at +260. BetOnline has no -350. Keep an eye on this one. It might be worth taking a flyer on Yes at +300 or better.

Official Play: None right now

3.      Will Any Player Kneel During the Anthem? (must be shown live on the broadcast)

Last year no players kneeled during the Super Bowl anthem and despite the numerous kneeling protests this year, they largely died down as the season wound to a close. I think no kneel is a very safe play here and even if someone were to kneel, they still have to show it live during the anthem. Of course, if any player really wanted to make a statement, this would be the stage to do it on. However, if his team lost, he (and the rest of the world) would have to hear all the #HotTaeks on how his kneeling took his team’s focus away from the game and ultimately caused them to lose. 

Official Play: No -458 at Bookmaker

Coin Toss Props

1.      Player Calls Heads or Tails?

Keep an eye out for this specific wording of a coin toss prop. Last year, Bookmaker assumingly took it on the chin opening this at -115/-115 and ultimately moving Heads all the way to -680 or so. 5Dimes had “Heads” at -140 the other day but it is now -295. A few locals probably still offer this prop even after last year’s debacle and may even have Heads at -115 so don’t be afraid to fire away on it if you see it.

Halftime Props

1.      First Halftime Song Performed by Justin Timberlake

It looks like “Filthy” is the betting favorite with that song being priced at -155 at BetOnline and -350 at 5Dimes. “Filthy” is a whopping +600 at Intertops so I recommend betting it there. Now, the one thing you need to remember is that all songs are action at Intertops, so if JT starts out with a song that’s not listed and then segues into “Filthy” you lose (wagers are refunded at BetOnline in this situation). This happened last year with Lady Gaga. Still, I think the +600 is enough value for a play, but don’t be surprised when you get screwed. 

Official Play: “Filthy” +600 at Intertops 

End of Game Props

1.      Color of Gatorade Dumped on Winning Coach

This is a prop I’ve never bet because there are just too many variables and there is just too much juice. All the books copy each other on this one, so you can’t even piece together any type of arb. This is a pass for me unless I get some inside info.

Official Play: None

2.      Who will the Super Bowl MVP Thank/Mention First?

This one used to be free money betting on “MVP Does Not Thank Anyone.” Tom Brady rained on the parade a couple years ago, when at the end of his interview he interrupted and started thanking everyone under the sun. If you insist on betting this, remember the language of the prop. Some sites stipulate “thank” and some stipulate “thank or mention.” I’d need to see “Does Not *Thank* Anyone” up around +350 to consider pulling the trigger on it this year, considering the MVP favorite has a history of thanking people. 

Official Play: None

Said/Shown Over/Unders

I almost always go under on all of these props and they almost always win. The biggest threat to an Under bet is a 4^th quarter blowout, where the announcers are trying to kill time because the game is in hand. This cost me quite a few of these during the Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl a few years ago. However, I stand undeterred and WE FIRE under on Sunday.

1.      Times Al and Cris say “Dynasty” Over/Under 2.5

Three “Dynasties” is just too much, during the game and excluding halftime. They might mention it once near the beginning and maybe again near the end if the Patriots are going to win, but three times is too many here and to get it at -110 is too good to pass up.

Official Play: Under 2.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

2.      Times Robert Kraft shown (live shots only) Over/Under 2.5

Betting the Under on this one used to be free money until the 2015 Super Bowl (broadcast by NBC, mind you) when they showed him 6 or 7 times. Unfortunately I need to lay off this one now. 

Official Play: None. Sad!

3.      Times Al Michaels Says “Vegas” Over/Under 0.5

We know Al loves sports betting and is probably second only to Brent Musburger in terms of his affection for it among announcers. However, this is the Super Bowl and Al will keep himself “under” control.

Official Play: Under 0.5 (-195) at 5Dimes

4.      Times “Carson Wentz” or “Wentz” said (during live broadcast) Over/Under 3.5

This was a runner-up for my World Famous Casket-Carrying Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Year. Under all the live long day on this one. I realize he was crucial to the Eagles regular season success, but the guy isn’t playing. I’m sure he’ll be mentioned once or twice; but four times to lose this one? Not a chance.

Official Play: Under 3.5 (+175) at 5Dimes 

5.      “Nipplegate” mentioned (halftime DOES apply) Yes/No

There is a greater likelihood of a tropical storm ripping the roof off the stadium in Minneapolis in February than there is of anyone unleashing a “Nipplegate” live on the air. Put your entire net worth on “No”

Official Play: No -900 at Bovada

6.      Times Giselle Bundchen shown (live shots only) Over/Under 1.5

I own a fleet of yachts thanks to Giselle and Archie Manning novelty props. However, last year I had to sell off some of the fleet to pay for a Gisele loss. Yes, they showed her twice last year. Brutal. However, the last time NBC had the Super Bowl was 2015 – Pats/Seahawks and they only showed her once. She is always shown once. I’m betting on her being shown exactly once again.

Official Play: Under 1.5 (+100) at 5Dimes

7.      Will Donovan McNabb vomiting in Super Bowl 39 be mentioned? Yes/No

This is a family show and while I’m sure there will be a few highlights of that game, I just can’t see either Al or Cris saying something like “…and the Patriots pulled that one out. By the way, Donovan McNabb was pukin’ his guts out in the huddle late in the game! How about that!?”

Official Play: No -250 at Bovada

8.      How many times will “Wardrobe Malfunction” be said on TV during the live broadcast? Over/Under 1.5

There is a very low likelihood some player’s uniform gets ripped or something and Al or Cris make reference to it, but I can’t see either going to the well twice on it. Bet Under with confidence here.

Official Play: Under 1.5 (-500) at Bovada

My ***Triple Sperm Bank Guarantee***

Welcome to my inaugural Triple Sperm Bank Guarantee. Around the twitterverse you might have seen wannabe-touting, affiliate-whoring, race-baiting, homeless-man’s-Sean-Hannity-of-sports, Clay (aka KKKlay (RIP groovin)) Travis incessantly pimping his massive piece of shit Double Blood Bank Guarantee on his sad-as-fuck SEC picks package this football season. Well folks, not that this says a whole lot, but the Triple Sperm Bank Guarantee is the real deal and will put the Double Blood Bank Guarantee where it belongs – in an Indiana cornfield, six feet underground.

Will Terrell Owens be mentioned during the game? Yes/No

The rule-of-thumb is players who are not actively participating in the game do not get mentioned or shown. T.O. has been out of the league for years. Yes, he played Super Bowl 39 on a broken leg but will that even be mentioned when the Patriots were the winners of that game?

Official Play: No +115 at 5Dimes

The World Famous Casket-Carrying, Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Century

In the past, I’ve revealed this pick on Brian Bolek’s podcast, but B-Bo is sick of having me as a guest, and who can really blame him? Thus, I reveal it now. I have never ever lost a World Famous Casket-Carrying, Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Century (although to be completely transparent, I did push on the “dab” prop from Broncos-Panthers). This year’s Casket-Carrying, Bookie-Burying, Ten Star Lock of the Century is…

Will Donald Trump be mentioned during the broadcast (halftime and commercials do not count)? Yes/No

Amazingly, BetOnline opened No at plus-odds and I and others bet it from +120 to -220 over the past few days. Bookmaker still has No at -180 and is taking to win $500 on it. This is hands-down the best bet on the board. There is NO REASON for either announcer to mention him (unless of course something crazy happens, which…well…isn’t all that unlikely to happen I suppose), but this is still crazy value. 

Official Play: No -180 at Bookmaker