The Illini are 25 Point Favorites Tomorrow. In Football. Wait, What?
Yes, it's true. While it's not a rare sight to see "25" next to Illinois on the betting sheet, usually the 25 is preceded by a "+". What is a rare sight is seeing a "-" in front of the number. In fact, it was so shocking, I decided to take a peek at the historical lines database (going back to 1978) to see the last time the Illini were favored by 25 points or more against an FBS (D1-A) team.
I had to look all the way back to the 2000 season, when Illinois was favored by 35 against Middle Tennessee State. And even this deserves an asterisk because Middle Tennessee State didn't become a D1-A school until 1999. Suppose we take MTSU out. We have to go all the way back to 1990, when the Illini were a 30 point favorite against Northwestern, and narrowly escaped with a 28-23 victory.
Out of curiosity, I then decided to look up how many times the Illini were 20 point or more favorites against FBS schools going back to 1978. Below is great evidence of how bad some programs were (which are now very good), and how good a certain program was (which is now trying to regain its footing...AGAIN!).
2010 (Illini finish 7-6, defeat RG3 and Baylor in Texas Bowl 38-14)
Opponent: vs Minnesota
Line: -21
Final Score: Minnesota 38, Illinois 35
I remember being in Tuscaloosa, Alabama for the Alabama/Mississippi St game on this day and checking ESPN on my phone for updates (ZERO Alabama tailgates had any game other than the SEC afternoon game on) and just being so pissed off when I saw we choked the game away. At least the folks in Tuscaloosa are very nice and shared their beer with me.
2002 (Illini finish 5-6, the year coming off the Big Ten title)
Opponent: vs San Jose State
Line: -23.5
Final Score: San Jose State 38, Illinois 35
Sadly, I was at this game. It was my sophomore year of college and after SJSU kicked the winning field goal, I've never heard a more silent stadium in my life. The entire walk back through campus with thousands of people was eerily quiet. No outrage, just depression. It was as if we just left a funeral. And in fact, that game was the first nail in Ron Turner's coffin.
2001 (Illini finish 10-2, win the Big Ten, lose to LSU in Sugar Bowl 47-34)
Opponent: vs Northern Illinois
Line: -20
Final Score: Illinois 17, Northern Illinois 12
This was the first Illini football game I ever attended. All I remember is how shitty of a game it was, and the chill up my spine when Chief Illiniwek appeared on the field at halftime. Ah, the good old days.
1991 (Illini finish 6-6, lose to UCLA in John Hancock Bowl 6-3)
Opponent: at Northwestern
Line: -21.5
Final Score: Northwestern 17, Illinois 11
1990 (Illini finish 8-4, tie for Big Ten title, lose to Clemson in Hall of Fame Bowl 30-0)
Opponent:: at Wisconsin
Line: -21
Final Score: Illinois 21, Wisconsin 3
Opponent: vs Northwestern
Line: -30
Final Score: Illinois 28, Northwestern 23
1989 (Illini finish 10-2, win Citrus Bowl vs Virginia 31-21)
Opponent: vs Wisconsin
Line: -22
Final Score: Illinois 32, Wisconsin 9
Opponent: at Northwestern
Line: -30
Final Score: Illinois 63, Northwestern 14
1986 (Illini finish 4-7)
Opponent: vs Louisville
Line: -20.5
Final Score: Illinois 23, Louisville 0
1985 (Illini finish 6-5-l, lose to Army in Peach Bowl 31-29)
Opponent: Northwestern
Line: -20
Final Score: Illinois 45, Northwestern 20
1984 (Illini finish 7-4, no bowl)
Opponent: vs Northwestern
Line: -29
Final Score: Illinois 24, Northwestern 16
Opponent: Minnesota
Line: -23.5
Final Score: Illinois 48, Minnesota 3
Opponent: at Indiana
Line: -21
Final Score: Illinois 34, Indiana 7
1983 (Illini finish 10-2, win Big Ten, lose to UCLA in Rose Bowl 45-9)
Opponent: at Minnesota
Line: -29.5
Final Score: Illinois 50, Minnesota 23
Opponent: Indiana
Line: -31.5
Final Score: Illinois 49, Indiana 21
Opponent: at Northwestern
Line: -30
Final Score: Illinois 56, Northwestern 24
So what have we learned today, if anything?
We learned that Illinois football began a downward spiral after the early 90s, but we also learned (or were reminded of) just how horrible Wisconsin and Northwestern were, and now both are in the Top 25, while Illinois has finished a season ranked in the Top 25 just twice since 2000 and thrice since 1991.
Coincidentally enough, the athletic director who presided over Illinois football during that timeframe through 2011, Ron Guenther, will be honored at halftime tomorrow by the I-Fund. I'm very interested to see what kind of reception he and his 88-132-2 football record receive.
Since 1990, as 20+ point favorites, the Illini are 0-6 against the spread, losing the most recent two games outright. So keep that in mind while you're racing to the window to bet Illinois -25 tomorrow. Or don't.
I had to look all the way back to the 2000 season, when Illinois was favored by 35 against Middle Tennessee State. And even this deserves an asterisk because Middle Tennessee State didn't become a D1-A school until 1999. Suppose we take MTSU out. We have to go all the way back to 1990, when the Illini were a 30 point favorite against Northwestern, and narrowly escaped with a 28-23 victory.
Out of curiosity, I then decided to look up how many times the Illini were 20 point or more favorites against FBS schools going back to 1978. Below is great evidence of how bad some programs were (which are now very good), and how good a certain program was (which is now trying to regain its footing...AGAIN!).
2010 (Illini finish 7-6, defeat RG3 and Baylor in Texas Bowl 38-14)
Opponent: vs Minnesota
Line: -21
Final Score: Minnesota 38, Illinois 35
I remember being in Tuscaloosa, Alabama for the Alabama/Mississippi St game on this day and checking ESPN on my phone for updates (ZERO Alabama tailgates had any game other than the SEC afternoon game on) and just being so pissed off when I saw we choked the game away. At least the folks in Tuscaloosa are very nice and shared their beer with me.
2002 (Illini finish 5-6, the year coming off the Big Ten title)
Opponent: vs San Jose State
Line: -23.5
Final Score: San Jose State 38, Illinois 35
Sadly, I was at this game. It was my sophomore year of college and after SJSU kicked the winning field goal, I've never heard a more silent stadium in my life. The entire walk back through campus with thousands of people was eerily quiet. No outrage, just depression. It was as if we just left a funeral. And in fact, that game was the first nail in Ron Turner's coffin.
2001 (Illini finish 10-2, win the Big Ten, lose to LSU in Sugar Bowl 47-34)
Opponent: vs Northern Illinois
Line: -20
Final Score: Illinois 17, Northern Illinois 12
This was the first Illini football game I ever attended. All I remember is how shitty of a game it was, and the chill up my spine when Chief Illiniwek appeared on the field at halftime. Ah, the good old days.
1991 (Illini finish 6-6, lose to UCLA in John Hancock Bowl 6-3)
Opponent: at Northwestern
Line: -21.5
Final Score: Northwestern 17, Illinois 11
1990 (Illini finish 8-4, tie for Big Ten title, lose to Clemson in Hall of Fame Bowl 30-0)
Opponent:: at Wisconsin
Line: -21
Final Score: Illinois 21, Wisconsin 3
Opponent: vs Northwestern
Line: -30
Final Score: Illinois 28, Northwestern 23
1989 (Illini finish 10-2, win Citrus Bowl vs Virginia 31-21)
Opponent: vs Wisconsin
Line: -22
Final Score: Illinois 32, Wisconsin 9
Opponent: at Northwestern
Line: -30
Final Score: Illinois 63, Northwestern 14
1986 (Illini finish 4-7)
Opponent: vs Louisville
Line: -20.5
Final Score: Illinois 23, Louisville 0
1985 (Illini finish 6-5-l, lose to Army in Peach Bowl 31-29)
Opponent: Northwestern
Line: -20
Final Score: Illinois 45, Northwestern 20
1984 (Illini finish 7-4, no bowl)
Opponent: vs Northwestern
Line: -29
Final Score: Illinois 24, Northwestern 16
Opponent: Minnesota
Line: -23.5
Final Score: Illinois 48, Minnesota 3
Opponent: at Indiana
Line: -21
Final Score: Illinois 34, Indiana 7
1983 (Illini finish 10-2, win Big Ten, lose to UCLA in Rose Bowl 45-9)
Opponent: at Minnesota
Line: -29.5
Final Score: Illinois 50, Minnesota 23
Opponent: Indiana
Line: -31.5
Final Score: Illinois 49, Indiana 21
Opponent: at Northwestern
Line: -30
Final Score: Illinois 56, Northwestern 24
So what have we learned today, if anything?
We learned that Illinois football began a downward spiral after the early 90s, but we also learned (or were reminded of) just how horrible Wisconsin and Northwestern were, and now both are in the Top 25, while Illinois has finished a season ranked in the Top 25 just twice since 2000 and thrice since 1991.
Coincidentally enough, the athletic director who presided over Illinois football during that timeframe through 2011, Ron Guenther, will be honored at halftime tomorrow by the I-Fund. I'm very interested to see what kind of reception he and his 88-132-2 football record receive.
Since 1990, as 20+ point favorites, the Illini are 0-6 against the spread, losing the most recent two games outright. So keep that in mind while you're racing to the window to bet Illinois -25 tomorrow. Or don't.
posted by Mucked Nuts at 5:42 PM
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