Your Guide to Super Bowl Prop Betting
Super Bowl Sunday is just around the
corner and if you haven’t already put down some action on the game, you probably will soon. You can look anywhere
on the internet for opinions and analysis of each team’s chances of winning the
game, but there are only a select few web sites which will give you an in-depth
breakdown of the most important bets of the game – the Super Bowl Novelty Prop Bets!
That’s right, you can
wager on the coin toss, what the color of the Gatorade will be, how many times
Fox shows so-and-so on TV, if Peyton Manning will have more TD passes than AC
Milan will have goals and hundreds and hundreds more. The team here at Mucked Nuts has put together
a summary of a select number of novelty props from various internet sports
betting sites with our plays and leans and bets to avoid. All lines are at the
time of writing and may have (and likely will have) changed numerous times
before the game. So without further ado, here we go…
1. Length of the National Anthem
Over/Under two minutes and twenty five seconds
We
start out with a bet that we have passed on the last few years and will likely
be passing on again this year unless an arbitrage opportunity presents itself.
And what do you know? An arbitrage opportunity (albeit, a small one) DOES
present itself. No one’s saying there’s
no value on a side here, but the team at Mucked Nuts has better things to do
than watch Renee Fleming videos to scrape out any kind of edge on this bet.
5Dimes
is offering the over at +165 and Bovada is offering under at -160. Bet both and
count your free money.
Our Play: over on 5Dimes at +165 and
under on Bovada at -160
2. Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the
National Anthem?
Yes/No
5Dimes
Yes +240/No -320
Bovada
Yes+170/No -250
We don’t
have much of an opinion on this one either but we will be watching for the line
on 5Dimes to go to +260 or higher for another arb, or a potential outright
play.
Our Play: None. Yet.
If we had to bet: No -250 on Bovada
3. Coin Toss
Heads/Tails
We’re
going to put it bluntly and just say you are complete degenerate (and moron) if
you bet this at anything worse than even odds. And at even odds, it’s still
pretty degen. BetOnline actually opened Tails at +100 (Heads -105) but is now
-103. Most books will give you at worst -105 but we mainly mention this prop so
we can call out the folks at Heritage Sports, a book that offers -108 pricing
on major sports, for dealing the incredibly insulting price of -115 for the coin
toss. Pretty pathetic, guys.
Our Play: None
If we had to bet: Bet against someone
else in the room for even odds.
4. Will John Elway be mentioned in the first
quarter by any member of the Fox team?
Yes/No
5Dimes
is the only book that has this specific wording for the prop and we bet “No” at
+250. We can almost guarantee Elway will be mentioned at some point during the
game, but historically, these types of mentions and visuals happen in the
second quarter and beyond (this statement is backed by no statistical proof).
At +250, it was too juicy to pass up, even though we think there is a good
chance he is mentioned in the first quarter.
Historical Perspective: The only other
first quarter “will they say…” bet we can recently remember was the
Giants/Patriots 2012 Super Bowl. It was
the infamous “Will an announcer say ‘Tebow’ in the 1st Quarter” bet.
We max bet “No” on this every time we could from -180 to -250. When we couldn’t
max it any more, we were actually offered “No” by a good friend at -200, which
we happily accepted. And for that, we say “domo arigato, Mr. Roboto.”
Now, the Tebow bet was different because Tebow
had absolutely nothing to do with that game whatsoever, so he wasn’t even
mentioned once. More on game relevance
to come…
Our Play: No +250 on 5Dimes
5. How many times will Eli Manning be shown on
live TV during the game?
5Dimes
and Bovada both offer over 1.5 (-130) and under 1.5 (-110)
Historical Perspective: A general rule
with the “How many times will they show…” bets is bet under. Unfortunately, the
books have caught on and have made the margins much slimmer this year. Harking
back to that 2012 Super Bowl, it was Eli playing in Peyton’s stadium. This year, it’s Peyton playing in Eli’s
stadium. The books set the over/under at 3.5 for “Peyton showings” in 2012. We
pounded the under every chance we got and our hard work paid off as they didn’t
show him once (was he even at the game?). We think Eli will be shown, just not
more than once. However, at that same
Super Bowl, we also had the under 3.5 on Patriots owner “Robert Kraft showings.”
They showed him FIVE times (the
cameraman likely had the over). A better
way to think about it – if not directly related to the game, bet under and bet
it hard. If directly related, use some discretion.
Our Play: Under 1.5 (-110) on both
5Dimes and Bovada
6.
How
many times will Archie Manning be shown on live TV during the game?
5Dimes
over 1 (-165) / under 1 (+125)
Bovada
over 1.5 (-110) / under 1.5 (-130)
Same principle
applies here; you just have a couple different pricing options. We think Archie
will be shown, but not more than once.
Our Play: Under 1.5 (-130) on Bovada
7.
From
kickoff to final whistle, will Troy Aikman or Joe Buck say “Marijuana”?
5Dimes
Yes +375 / No -565
BetOnline
Yes (1st half) +400 / Yes (2nd half) +750 / No -450
This
bet is presumably written because the states of Washington and Colorado both
legalized recreational marijuana recently (yet playing online poker in
Washington is still a Class C Felony, the equivalent of rape). BetOnline
actually opened the “No” at -200 but we were not quick enough to get on that
fantastic price. The only thing to watch out for with this bet is if one of the
players has had marijuana-related legal troubles, but even so, we just can’t
see either of them saying it.
Our Play: No at -450 on BetOnline
8. How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha”?
5Dimes
o27.5 (-130)/u27.5 (-110)
Sportsbook
o28.5 (-115)/u 28.5 (-125)
Bovada
o27.5 (-135)/u27.5 (-105)
BetOnline
o24.5 (-180)/u24.5 (+150)
Manning
said “Omaha” over 30 times in the AFC Championship game. One risk to this bet is the offense might
have changed the nomenclature of various audibles. We here at Mucked Nuts don’t
really know anything about football play-calling but we think this scenario isn’t
out of the realm of possibilities and Manning says ZERO Omahas. That said, we’re
waiting for plus-odds before betting under 27.5.
Our Play: None. Yet.
If you have to bet it: We say under 27.5,
but don’t love it.
9.
How
many times will “12th Man” be said during the game’s live broadcast?
Bovada
o2 (+100) / u2 (-140)
Seeing
as how the game isn’t in Seattle, so there is no 12th man, we like
the under here. Here are some potential
issues, however:
1. Live
pictures at a bar in Seattle if they’re about to win and Buck drops a “12th
Man”
2.
A too-many-men-on-the-field penalty and the
announcers refer to the extra player as the “12th man.” Even though
the spirit of the bet is clearly to refer to Seattle’s fans, those who bet the
over have a legitimate gripe due to the somewhat general wording of the wager.
Our Play: None, but we’ll probably put a
little down on the under if we can find it near even odds. The interpretation
risk is too high for us at -140.
If you have to bet it: Under. But be
aware there could be confusion.
10.
How
many times will “Beast Mode” be said during the game’s live telecast?
Bovada
o2 (+110)/u2 (-150)
This
might be the best bet on the board. Keep in mind, for the announcers, it’s
their Super Bowl too. Say what you will about Buck and Aikman, but we just can’t
see them saying “Beast Mode” three times, let alone once. Perhaps we give them
too much credit, though.
Our Play: Under 2 (-150) at Bovada
11.
Will
any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance?
Yes
-120 / No -120 on both Sportsbook and Bovada
We end
with this bet to gently remind everyone of the infamous “Madonna fishnet
stockings controversy” from 2012. The grading of that bet went back and forth
for days on end. Some books changing winners and losers multiple times, some
books grading all tickets as winners, and others just canceling the bet
altogether. Despite the assumed ease of determining if someone is shirtless or
not, one should never take anything for granted.
Our Play: None.
If you have to bet it: Flip a coin
If you
have any questions on any other props you come across, drop us a line in the
comments or on Twitter @MuckedNuts. We hope this will be useful and we hope we
don’t end up making too much of an ass of ourselves with these tips and
predictions. Having said all that, here’s how we see the game starting off…
Buck: Seattle on offense first here at
the Marijuana Bowl…it’s a handoff to Marshawn Lynch, and he breaks through the
middle…Look at Beast Mode go! A gain of 15!
Aikman: You’ve just gotta love Beast
Mode!
Buck: Who doesn’t love Beast Mode?
Aikman: Wait, there’s a flag on the
play..looks like Seattle had too many men on the field
Buck: You’re right, Troy, you see that
12th man in the huddle there?
Aikman: I see him all right. When the 12th
man is in the huddle that will make the referee throw the penalty flag.
Buck: Indeed. The Seahawks are only
allowed to have the 12th man when playing in Seattle…get it?
Aikman: I got it, all right, Joe.
Buck: Wilson back to pass, and it’s
intercepted! Broncos will have the ball 1st and 10!
Aikman: Look at those three quarterbacks
together in the skybox – John Elway, Archie and Eli. Loving it so far!
Buck: Indeed. Let’s get another shot of
them together. Wow, look at that! Those great quarterbacks and Eli Manning!
Peyton under center now…
posted by Mucked Nuts at 10:34 PM
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