Vanity License Plates & Baseball Season Wins - the Makings of a Fantastic Prop Bet

With the release of MLB season win totals from the Atlantis, LVH and William Hill, I thought now would be a good time to share a prop bet that was booked well over a year ago for this coming baseball season.

So I have these two friends, whom I will refer to by their college AIM names: "Tickles" and "BJCatcher." Tickles is a big White Sox fan and BJCatcher is a life-long, die-hard, lock-himself-in-his-bedroom-if-the-Cubs-ever-make-the-World-Series-and-not-emerge-until-the-Series-is-over-and-if-they-lose-then-two-weeks-after-it's-over Cubs fan.

A little over a year ago, Tickles and BJCatcher came up with a very creative wager for the 2014 baseball season.  If the Cubs finish with a better record than the White Sox, BJCatcher gets to choose and design Tickles' vanity license plate for two years, but Tickles has to pay for it. If the White Sox end up with a better record than the Cubs, then Tickles chooses and designs BJCatcher's vanity license plate for two years, and BJCatcher finances the transaction. Now, if the Cubs and Sox finish with identical records, they both choose each other's vanity plates, but I will be paying for everything (mostly because I think this bet is so great it would be an absolute shame if a push resulted in a canceled wager - then everybody loses).

Last week, the Atlantis Casino in Reno released season win totals of 76.5 for the White Sox and 65.5 for the Cubs. Upon hearing this, I think BJCatcher got a little nervous, and even considered a buy-out. However, William Hill has narrowed the spread considerably with their release, putting the White Sox at 74.5 and the Cubs at 69.5. Hopefully, the updated lines have assuaged BJCatcher's nerves a bit. Let's pray there will be no buy-out because - let's be honest - we desperately need a reason to watch what is likely to be yet another summer of putrid Chicago baseball.

I'll continue to update as the season progresses.

Grading our Super Bowl prop plays

The Super Bowl has concluded and now it's time to see how we did on our novelty prop bets and leans...

1. Length of National Anthem
Over/Under two minutes and twenty five seconds
Our play: Arbitrage over +165 at 5Dimes / Under -160 at Bovada
Result: Under. Way under. I timed it at 2:02.

2. Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the national anthem?
Yes/No
Our play: None, but leaned No.
Result: No

3. Coin Toss

Heads/Tails

Our play: None, no leans.

Result: Tails

      4. Will John Elway be mentioned by any member of the Fox team in the 1st quarter?

Yes/No

Our play: No +250

Result: No

He was mentioned later on in the game when Buck and Aikman were discussing the biggest blowouts in Super Bowl history. His Broncos were on the bad end of one of them.

5. How many times will Eli Manning be shown on live TV during the game?

Over/Under 1.5

Our play: Under -110

Result: Over

This one was sort of a bad beat. They had the obligatory showing in the first half in case the second half wasn't interesting at all (it wasn't). Then, they showed him again in the second half. After a slew of 4th quarter injuries, the announcers began talking about Peyton and his disappointment, and then cut to another shot of Eli, because really, how long can you show a player writhing in pain on the ground? Without those injuries, we're confident this would've stayed under.

6. How many times will Archie Manning be shown on live TV during the game?

Over/Under 1.5

Our play: Under -130

Result: Under

Archie wasn't shown a single time during the game.

7. From kickoff to final whistle, will Joe Buck or Troy Aikman say the word "marijuana"?

Yes/No

Our play: No -450

Result: No

This bet actually came all the way down to -170 on 5Dimes a couple hours before the game. We bet it again..and again...and again...and again...and again. We just could not figure out any scenario in which "yes" would've been plausible.

8. How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha"?

Over/Under 27.5

Our play: None, but leaned No.

This was somewhat of a bad beat for everyone who had the over. It was very difficult to hear anything on the field, and there was only one instance where we might have heard him say it.

9. How many times will "12th man" be said during the broadcast?

Over/Under 2

Our play: None, but leaned Under.

12th man wasn't said a single time during the game telecast. The only point where it might've been close was when Buck was referring to how far they were from Seattle, even though it was really loud in the stadium.

10. How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the broadcast?

Over/Under 2

Our play: Under -140

Beast Mode wasn't uttered a single time during the game, but Aikman dropped a couple "Legions of Boom" which made me very thankful there wasn't a prop bet on that phrase. A sure loser for anyone with Under.

11. Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers my shirtless at halftime?

Yes/No

Our play: None, no leans.

It was interesting to see this line move pretty strongly to "yes" in the two days before the game. Lo and behold, they pretty much were all topless on stage.

Overall, pretty disappointing for us because we didn't go undefeated. We here at Mucked Nuts take great pride in nailing every one of these bets every year, so it's always a bummer when there's a year we lose one.

Final tally: 

Plays:  4-1

Leans: 3-0