The Mucked Nuts Guide to Betting Super Bowl Novelty Props - 2016 Edition

Welcome to The Mucked Nuts Guide to Betting Super Bowl Novelty Props – 2016 Edition. Unfortunately, the publication of the 2015 version of The Guide had to be halted due to the demands of caring for a three-day-old child, but this year I am back, hungrier than ever, and ready to eat away your bookie’s bankroll. This year’s The Guide also includes the inaugural “Casket-Carrying, Bookie-Burying, Ten Star Lock of the Year” which can be found near the end.

Due to the abundance of offshore and Nevada-based sportsbooks, for the sake of simplicity I’ll be focusing on the novelty proposition bets offered at the more well-known offshore books.

There are two prop bets which get posted for every single Super Bowl. One is the total length of the national anthem and the other is the coin toss.

1.       National Anthem (over/under)

With the late announcement that Lady Gaga will be singing the Star Spangled Banner, only a few books have posted odds. Bovada set the total at 2 minutes and 20 seconds (-120 on each side) and TopBet has posted it at 2 minutes and 15.5 seconds (-115 on each side). A video of Lady Gaga singing the anthem at the 2013 NYC Pride Rally clocks her at 2:15. However, this being the Super Bowl, it’s not unreasonable to think she could draw it out even longer, given the stage she’s on. That said, I have no clue what to expect and the intriguing play here is to bet the under at Bovada and the over at TopBet and try to middle it. As obvious as this seems we must first determine if the value of 4.5 seconds is worth all of the vig we’re paying on both sides. To do that we need to know the value of a Lady Gaga National Anthem half second. Off the top of my head I do not know the value of a Lady Gaga National Anthem half second and if someone wants to actually take the time to #DoTheMath, be my guest. After confirming this by thinking about it, middling isn’t a terrible play, but not a no-brainer either.

Official Plays: Under 2:20 (-120) at Bovada AND Over 2:15.5 (-115) at TopBet

2.       Coin Toss (heads/tails)

The strategy here is to find someone stupid enough to give you either side of this at plus-odds. If that fails and you want to be a degen, do it at even odds with a buddy. If that also fails and you want to be a dumbass, listed below are the coin toss prices at a few books:

                                Heads   Tails

5Dimes                 -101       -101

Sportsbook.ag   -101       -101

Bovada                 -105       -105

TopBet                 -102       -102

Pinnacle               -103       -103

BetOnline            -105       -105

Heritage               -115       -115      

I’d also like to give a big ol’ congratulations to Heritage Sports! Heritage is the winner of this year’s Coin Toss Predatory Pricing Award. Heritage, an offshore book that deals -105 and -108 pricing for major U.S. sports apparently thinks it is too susceptible to sharp action on the coin toss, thus justifying the -115 pricing.  Way to go, guys!

Official Play: None

3.       Will Mike Carey be wrong on a Challenge?

I bet No earlier in the week on TopBet at -150 and the line has since moved to -185 (Yes is +145). Bovada also has this posted at Yes +145 / No -190. Most challenges are pretty cut-and-dry and while Carey does have a reputation of getting it wrong fairly often, for him to get one wrong requires a roughly 50/50 play AND his predicting the wrong outcome of the challenge. A caveat with this one is if Carey is wishy-washy with his answer and doesn’t take a firm position on the challenge. Bovada notes that “He must be consulted on live broadcast and must clearly take a stance on his position. Book Manager's decision is final. If not consulted wagers will be No Action.” Of course, a “clear stance” is in the eye of the beholder. Even so, I still like “No” and for the sake of The Guide we’ll say I bet it at -185. Again, I’ve done all these calculations by thinking about them.

Official Play: No -185 on TopBet

4.       First song by Coldplay in the halftime show

TopBet and Bovada both list “Adventure of a Lifetime” at the +200 favorite. The only play that I think could have value is “Viva la Vida” at +450 on Bovada if they want to kick things off with their most well-known song to a worldwide audience. But then again, most artists don’t begin sets with their #1 song. If you want to check out all the odds they are here and here.

Official Play: None

5.       Predominant color of Beyonce’s footwear

No clue. (Bovada lists Black as the +150 favorite FWIW)

Official Play: None

6.       Color of Liquid Poured on Winning Head Coach

Another one where I have no lean. Orange seems to be the favorite, offered at +100 on Sportsbook.com, +125 on Bovada and +150 on BetOnline.

Official Play: None

7.       Who does the Super Bowl MVP Thank/Mention First?

This one is an all-time classic and one that is posted every year. This year, however, you need to be cognizant of the wording of the prop. On Sportsbook.ag it’s “Who will the Super Bowl MVP Thank First?” On TopBet and Bovada, it’s “Who Will the Super Bowl MVP Mention First” This is an extremely important distinction as the odds of the player mentioning someone/something is much greater than him specifically thanking someone/something during the postgame interview. On sportsbook.ag, for instance, the odds are as follows: Team +175, God +180, City/Fans +600, Coach +1000, Family +1000, Does Not Thank Anyone or Mention Anyone on List +180. In years past, “Does Not Thank Anyone” was one of the highest EV novelty prop bets for the entire game. A few years ago it opened at +800. The last two years I was able to get it better than +300. Last year, however, was the first year I can remember the bet losing, as Tom Brady slipped in a few thank yous right at the end of the interview (a final kick in the nuts from a betting standpoint on that game). This year the odds are not nearly as good and the wording is much murkier (especially with Sportsbook adding the “or mention anyone on list”), which has me considering laying off…however, it’s the Thank You prop and I just cannot lay off. I’ve bet it on Bovada at +225.

Official Play: “Does Not Mention Anyone Above” +225 on Bovada

8.       The Puppy Bowl

5Dimes is offering spread and moneyline bets on the Puppy Bowl, which airs opposite the Super Bowl. The current line is Team Ruff -9.5 (-120) / Team Fluff +9.5 (-120). When I first checked this line days ago, Team Ruff was a mere 1.5 point favorite. When I checked again a few nights ago, Team Ruff had ballooned to a double-digit favorite. Since then it has chopped around between 6 and 10 points. These wild price swings have purportedly been the result of massive insider trading on the game after a litany of $1.25 bets moved the Team Ruff line by 7 points. For more information on this controversy, please check out these Twitter posts by @vegasWATCH.

Official Play: None. I don’t want Toni disabling my account for insider trading

From here on out, I will be focusing on the Bovada-only props. Despite their reputation as Latvian dual-line dealing scammers, the folks at Bovada do offer the most diverse range of novelty props of any major online sportsbook. I’ll go through where to find value and where you should just shake your head and laugh…or cry.

One-Sided Bovada Bullshit – these are wagers that Bovada will only accept action on one side. These are wagers that are so bad for the player, meaning the other side is so good that Bovada will not even offer it. An example of one of these wagers would be “Chelsea, Real Madrid and Juventus all win” Yes +300. There is no “No” side. As bad as these bets are, there’s at least some semblance of a chance that you could win, despite it being terribly –EV. There are some one-sided Super Bowl Novelty Props that take negative EV to a level never before seen by mankind.

1.       Will Left Shark Make an Appearance on Stage at the Halftime Show Yes +1500

For those who don’t remember, during the halftime show last year, Katy Perry was performing in front of two costumed sharks – Left Shark and Right Shark. If you actually think there is a 15 to 1 or better chance of SPECIFICALLY THE LEFT SHARK being on stage this year, you should not be allowed to be around money ever again. If you have already bet this, please check yourself into the nearest quasi-medical establishment for your lobotomy. You will be a much better functioning human being without the brain that is currently in your head.

Official Play: lol

2.       Will Denver Win the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning Retires, San Antonio wins NBA Championship, Tim Duncan Retires (must retire before game one of following season)? Yes +2000

What’s truly great about this one is that it has the longest odds of the one-sided bullshit bets, but has by far the greatest likelihood of occurring. That said, is it a good bet? Let’s #DoTheMath. All four of these outcomes must occur for the bet to be a winner. And while we can determine the probabilities of the Broncos and Spurs, determining retirement probabilities is a little more difficult. 

The Broncos currently have no-vig odds of winning of +203 or 32.98%.

My best metric for the Spurs title is the Yes/No 5Dimes no-vig: +392 or 20.34%

So the odds of just the Broncos and the Spurs winning their respective titles is 6.7% or +1392. Now, how do we handicap the retirements? It’s clear to everyone Manning is no longer the quarterback he once was and win or lose, it’s probably a greater than 50% chance he’s done after this season. Let’s assume, for the sake of the bet, that if the Broncos win the Super Bowl, Peyton Manning has a 100% chance of retiring (he wants to go out on top, whatever…). So now, in this very best case scenario, Tim Duncan has to retire 71% of the time after this season for this to be a break-even wager. You could also argue that there might be some correlation in this bet in that perhaps Manning and Duncan would like to go out on top. Of course, there isn’t a 100% chance of Manning retiring and who knows about Duncan. Knowing nothing about either player’s intentions, each would have to retire slightly over 84% of the time to make this a break-even bet, assuming they’re equally likely to retire.

Official play: None, but I at least had to consider it

3.       Will there be an earthquake during the game? (announcer must indicate there was during live broadcast from kickoff until final whistle) Yes +1000

This is probably the stupidest bet I’ve ever seen in my entire life. There is a greater chance of Phil Simms shitting his pants and talking about it in detail on the broadcast than there is of an earthquake occurring in the Bay Area. How many sporting events are held in the Bay Area daily? How many have been interrupted by earthquake? I can think of ONE instance ever where an earthquake has occurred AND was mentioned by the announcers, and that was in 1989 for the World Series. However, as @groovinmahoovin humorously pointed out, even if this bet existed back then, you still would have LOST THE BET because the earthquake occurred BEFORE the first pitch. If you actually bet this seriously thinking it’s good value, just shoot yourself and get it over with. The only possible reason to play this is if you’re an AP who still has full limits at Bovada. You could bet this as a cover play because almost no risk team in the world would look at that bet come in and say, “you know what, this is a guy we should be afraid of. Cut his limits.” Of course, the one risk team that actually would legitimately be afraid of it is Bovada so forget I mentioned that.

Official play: Are you F****** kidding me?

Two-Sided Bovada Props

1.       How many times will Cam Newton do the Open Shirt Superman motion during the game?

Over 2.5 +200 / Under 2.5 -300

I bet the under on this one earlier in the week when it was -140 and unfortunately the under has ballooned to -300. I don’t watch a lot of football, but given that it’s the Super Bowl and Cam Newton probably wants to keep things fresh, is he really going to bust out the Superman three times? If so, dude, you need some new material. I don’t like it nearly as much at -300 but for the sake of The Guide, let’s say I bet it there too.

Official play: Under 2.5 -300

2.       How many times will the Golden Gate Bridge be shown during the Broadcast (kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only. Halftime does not count)?

Over 0.5 -400 / Under 0.5 +250

Santa Clara is basically in San Jose, which is quite far from the Golden Gate. However, it’s difficult to imagine an event of this magnitude being held in the Bay Area without a shot of its most iconic structure. I think you’ll see a shot of the bridge, but I don’t think the odds are good enough at -400.

Official play: None

3.       Will the announcers mention that Kubiak was Elway’s backup during the broadcast (kickoff to final whistle. Halftime does not count)?

Yes -140 / No +100

This is a tough one for me because I could see Simms mentioning it in passing when he forgets one of his talking points. If it was an over/under mentions at 1 or more I’d take the under all day. However, at +100, I think it’s worth taking a shot on No but it’s not great.

Official play: No +100

4.       Will Peyton Manning announce his retirement in the postgame interview (must be on live broadcast)?

Yes +500 / No -1000

This one is easy money. Manning won’t put the postgame focus on himself by announcing his retirement right after the game ends.

Official play: No -1000

5.       Will either Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders be mentioned during the broadcast? (from kickoff to final whistle, halftime and commercials do not count towards wager)

Yes +200 / No -300

More easy money here. There is absolutely no reason why any of these people should be mentioned during the telecast of the Super Bowl and at -300 this one is an absolute steal.

Official play: No -300

6.       How many times will John Elway be shown during the broadcast (kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only. Halftime does not count)?

Over 2.5 +100 / Under 2.5 -140

I used to blindly bet under on these until a few years ago when Robert Kraft was shown on TV 5 or 6 times, completely blowing through the total of 3.5. The general rule of thumb is go under on anyone not directly related to the teams playing. As Elway is the GM, he is a direct relation. However, at 2.5, they’ll need to show him three times for the loss and I think that is still a bit too much so I go under here.

Official play: Under 2.5 -140

7.       How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the broadcast? (kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only. Halftime does not count)

Over 1.5 +100 / Under 1.5 -140

With all the Peyton and Eli Super Bowls, I’ve had more wagers on Archie Manning than anyone else since I’ve been betting these. I am 100% on Archie Manning wagers. CBS will show Archie on TV. That’s a guarantee. But they’ll do it only one time. The under will cash again this year.

Official play: Under 1.5 -140

8.       How many times will “John Fox” be said during the telecast? (kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only. Halftime does not count)

Over 1 (-140) / Under 1 +100

Fox used to coach both the Panthers and the Broncos. He was also the coach of each team the last time they were in the Super Bowl. Fox currently has no direct relation to the teams now so I think the under at +100 is a great bet here.

Official play: Under 1 +100

The Casket-Carrying, Bookie-Burying, Ten Star Lock of the Year…….will be revealed during my guest appearance on the Brian Bolek “B-Bo Knows” Sports Betting Podcast this Saturday, February 6. Be sure to tune in to get your FREE guaranteed winner.

And that concludes The Mucked Nuts Guide to Super Bowl Novelty Prop Betting – 2016 Edition. I expect another insanely profitable Super Bowl this year and you’ll be glad you’re along for the ride.