The Mucked Nuts Guide to Betting Super Bowl Novelty Props - 2017 Edition

Welcome to the Mucked Nuts Guide to Betting Super Bowl Novelty Props – 2017 Edition! Like all previous editions of the Guide this one is FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE – that’s nine frees. And like previous editions of the Guide, this year’s Guide will focus on the novelty props offered at a handful of offshore sportsbooks. Also included is my World Famous Casket-Carrying Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Century. However, unlike previous years, I will be updating the Guide as I come across other Super Bowl bets (props or otherwise) that I think have value (offshore and in Nevada). I’ll tweet these plays out as I come across them at @MuckedNuts in addition to adding them to my Addendum at the bottom of this year’s Guide.

National Anthem Props

1.      Length of National Anthem

Historically, I’ve laid off betting the anthem unless I can find a nice middle there. Last year I took over 2:15 on TopBet and Under 2:20 on Bovada. This year the biggest difference I’ve come across is Over 2 minutes 7.5 seconds on Sportsbook.ag (-125) and Under 2 minutes 10 seconds (+100) on BetOnline. 5Dimes has over/under 2:10 at -120. One thing to remember with 5Dimes is they can really move their prop prices quite a bit. Even though you can only get $25 or $50 down, you’re allowed to re-bet when the line moves so theoretically it’s possible to get some size down if you have the patience.

Official Play: None, but keep an eye on 5Dimes’ market, especially the day of the game (this goes for all their other props too)

2.      Luke Bryan Hat or No Hat

You need to watch the wording on this one. Some places opened the prop as “Will Luke Bryan be wearing a hat when he sings the national anthem?” Now, I think everyone has re-worded to “Will Luke Bryan be wearing a hat when he appears BEFORE the national anthem?” I’d assume Luke Bryan would remove his hat for the anthem, so why even show up on stage wearing one in the first place? You’d then have to hold it the entire time you sang or awkwardly set it aside in the seconds leading up to the first note. BetOnline has “No” at -195 and I bet it this afternoon.

Official Play: No -195 at BetOnline

3.      Will Any Player Kneel During the Anthem? (must be shown live on the broadcast)

Neither team had any players who kneeled during the national anthem this season. According to Think Progress, Martellus Bennett and Devin McCourty raised their fists after the national anthem in Week 1 but did not continue the action the rest of the season (and of course, this is not kneeling). The major risk factor is if a player wanted to make a statement, this is the biggest stage to do so. However, the cameras would also have to show him live during the singing of the anthem for Yes to win. BetOnline is dealing No at -550 and I think there is enough value to take it.

Official Play: No -550 at BetOnline

Coin Toss Props

1.      Player Calls Heads or Tails?

The Patriots are the visiting team and will be the ones calling the coin toss. The Patriots have called “Heads” every time for the past few seasons. Now, the value of this one offshore seems to have been scrubbed away. Bookmaker opened “Player Calls Heads” at -115 and is now dealing Heads -680, Tails +440. Most other sites aren’t even offering this prop and instead offer “Will the Coin Toss be Heads or Tails?” I mention this because I have a local who is dealing “Player Calls Heads” at -115 so if ya got a guy, it’s worth checking to see if he’s asleep at the wheel.

2.      Team To Win Coin Toss

BetOnline has Falcons at +100, so if you want to flip a coin…

Finally, I’d also like to take a few words to admonish Heritage Sports, a site that offers -105 pricing on all major North American sports leagues for dealing -115 on their coin toss props. Embarrassing.

Halftime Props

1.      First Halftime Song Performed by Lady Gaga

I don’t have any inside information on this, but you can make a profit betting this prop. Surprisingly, there is an arbitrage opportunity available on this one.

Heritage:

“Applause” +1650

“Born This Way” +1900

“Field (any other song)” +450

“Just Dance” at +1450

Bovada:

“Bad Romance” +250

TopBet:

“Poker Face” +1500

Intertops:

“Paparazzi” +2500

“The Edge of Glory” at +900 (“The Edge of Glory” seems to have a lot of value on its own since it’s around +200 at most places and -105 at Heritage)

This is a play with -19% vig. The limits are also miniscule on some of these so don’t expect to retire after pulling this off.

Official Play: What I just said to do
**Update 2/1 8:15am** - Bovada has pulled their song odds so the +250 on "Bad Romance" is no longer available. Intertops has also moved "The Edge of Glory" to +500 so the arb opportunity is now gone :(

2.      Color of Lady Gaga’s Hair

“Blonde” is the favorite at -400 most places. I don’t have an opinion or info on this one but I will update if I do later in the week.

Official Play: None

3.      Will Lady Gaga Have a Wardrobe Malfunction (must expose intimate part of body)

Thirteen years later and we’re still talking about wardrobe malfunctions. With how short attention spans are today, I consider this pretty amazing. However, with the prop, once again you have to mind the wording. What is considered “intimate” these days? Is a butt cheek intimate? The vast majority of people have one or two of those. Can something be intimate if everyone has it? If you like picking up pennies, you can bet “No” at -1400 on sportsbook.ag and “Yes” at 5Dimes at +1500. If “Tony” and sportsbook have different grading metrics, you might be in trouble though.

Official Play: No -1400 sportsbook.ag and Yes +1500 5Dimes

End of Game Props

1.      Color of Gatorade Dumped on Winning Coach

This is a prop I’ve never bet because there are just too many variables and there is just too much juice. All the books copy each other on this one, so you can’t even piece together any type of arb. This is a pass for me unless I get some inside info.

Official Play: None

2.      Who will the Super Bowl MVP Thank/Mention First?

This one used to be free money betting on “MVP Does Not Thank Anyone.” Tom Brady rained on the parade a couple years ago, when at the end of his interview he interrupted and started thanking everyone under the sun. If you insist on betting this, remember the language of the prop. Some sites stipulate “thank” and some stipulate “thank or mention.” I’d need to see “Does Not *Thank* Anyone” up around +350 to consider pulling the trigger on it this year, considering the MVP favorite has a history of thanking people. I did make one play on this though…Sportsbook.ag has “MVP Thanks Donald Trump First” at +50000. If Brady wins, I could see an outside shot at him trolling the universe and giving him a shout out.

Official Play: MVP Thanks Donald Trump First +50000 at sportsbook.ag

Said/Shown Over/Unders

I almost always go under on all of these props and they almost always win. The biggest threat to an Under bet is a 4^th quarter blowout, where the announcers are trying to kill time because the game is in hand. This cost me quite a few of these during the Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl a few years ago. However, I stand undeterred and WE FIRE under on Sunday.

1.      Times Arthur Blank Shown (live shots only) Over/Under 2

I think the only way this goes over is if it’s a Falcons blowout and they keep panning to him on the sidelines late in the game.

Official Play: Under 2 (-135) at BetOnline **you can also arb this by taking over 2 (+185) on 5Dimes but we ride the under**

2.      Times Robert Kraft shown (live shots only) Over/Under 2.5

I lost this bet a couple years ago during the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl. They showed Kraft like 6 times. It gives me some pause to fire again but it could’ve easily been a fluke because the camera crew couldn’t find anyone else in the stands.

Official Play: Under 2.5 (-130) at Bovada **you can also arb this by taking the over 2.5 (+160) on 5Dimes but we will stick with under for now**

3.      Times “Deflate” or “Deflategate” said (during live broadcast) Over/Under 1.5

This happened two years ago, right? Not sure why it would come up more than once (if even once). I’m sure Goodell has sent down the orders to not mention it. Your risk here is if Buck and Aikman use the word “deflate” out of “Deflategate” context to talk about something that happens in the game (e.g. “that interception can really deflate an offense”). Still, the price is too good on the under.

Official Play: Under 1.5 (-120) at Bovada **can also arb it at 5Dimes with over 1.5 (+165)**

4.      Times “Gronk/Gronkowski” said (during live broadcast) Over/Under 3

This was a runner-up for my World Famous Casket-Carrying Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Year. Under all the live long day on this one. The guy isn’t playing. I’m sure he’ll be mentioned once; but four times to lose this one? Not a chance.

Official Play: Under 3 (-120) at Bovada 

5.      Times “LaCrosse” said (during live broadcast) Over/Under 0.5

No margin for error on this one and it’s a pass for me right now. BetOnline has the Over at -250 and Under +170.

Official Play: None. Yet.

6.      Times Giselle Bundchen shown (live shots only) Over/Under 1.5

I’m financially independent thanks to Giselle and Archie Manning novelty props. They’ll show her once. They always do. But they won’t show her twice. They never do.

Official Play: Under 1.5 (-200) at Bovada

7.      Will “Houston We Have a Problem” be said on TV during live broadcast?

Say what you will about Joe Buck, but at least he calls these big games pretty straight-forward. Even Aikman keeps it pretty cool despite dropping about 4 or 5 “legion of booms” during the Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl a few years ago. I can’t imagine either of them saying something this stupid. 

Official Play: No -400 at Bovada

8.      How many times will “Trump” be said on TV during the live broadcast? Over/Under 1.5

I could maybe see one “Trump” slipping out, but I’d be really surprised if there were any. Under is a very safe play here.

Official Play: Under 1.5 (-140) at Bovada

Donald Trump Props

And now we wade into uncharted waters…I can almost guarantee that Trump knows about these bets and it would not surprise me in the least if he has his White House staff opening ghost accounts for him to bet. This could end in financial pain. Tread carefully.

1.      How many times will Donald Trump tweet on Super Bowl Sunday? Over/Under 7.5

Seven-and-a-half tweets in a day is a lot of tweets. But this is also Donald Trump. The risk factor here is yet another political controversy he’ll try to defend on twitter – before the game even starts! Just too many variables playing into this one for me, so it’s a pass at the moment.

Official Play: None

2.      Donald Trump uses exact phrase “Bill Belichick” on Twitter

I really like “no” on this one because not only does Trump have to mention Bill Belichick on Twitter, he also has to spell his name correctly. The odds of the latter happening are low enough as it is. Feel safe with “No.”

Official Play: No -115 at BetOnline

3.      Donald Trump uses exact phrase “Tom Brady” on Twitter

This is a real tough one because it’s much easier to spell “Tom Brady” and Trump and Brady are buddies. Right now this is a pass for me but I lean “no.”

Official Play: None.

The Casket-Carrying, Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Century

Like last season…will be revealed on Brian Bolek’s B-Bo Knows Sports Betting Podcast. Stay tuned.

Addendum

1.      Tom Brady to win MVP +125 on Bovada.

Most sites have him somewhere between -110 and +110. Bovada had him at +150 last week but there is still value here at +125. They’re also taking $500 bets on it, if you have access to an account with full limits.

2. *Update 2/1 8:15am* Will Goodell be seen shaking hands with Brady, Belichick or Kraft? (postgame show, live video only) Yes on 5Dimes +157 and No +200 on Bovada

3. *Update 2/4 3:45pm* Casket-Carrying Bookie-Burying Ten Star Lock of the Year "Will announcers say "Matty Ice" on air?" No +125 at 5Dimes (revealed on Bolek podcast)