Mucked Nuts

Super Bowl Props Updated

2012-01-31T18:41:00.006-06:00

Alrighty, back after a long absence. I hope everyone had a great Halloween. And Thanksgiving. And Hanukkah. And Christmas. And Kwanzaa. And New Year's. I feel like I've learned a lot from actively betting this football season and after the Super Bowl I will have a more comprehensive write-up reviewing the season and just some other general thoughts on sports betting itself.

Anyway, it is Super Bowl week, which means sportsbooks everywhere are offering a litany of different prop bets ranging from if the game will go to overtime, to how many receiving yards Wes Welker will have, to the coin toss. I thought that instead of tweeting out every prop bet, I'll just keep track of them here and update the page as I make the bets. A lot of these bets have very low betting limits so I will be betting some of them multiple times. So here we go....

Saturday, February 3
1. Giants Receive Kickoff -260

2. New England Completions Over 26 (+105)

Thursday, February 2
1. Peyton Manning shown UNDER 3.5 times during the broadcast (+150) *must be shown live; kickoff to final whistle; halftime does not apply*
- Probably bet this one for the final time as I now have four max bets on this prop

2. Total Fumbles lost in the game UNDER 1 (+110)

3. Total Sacks by both teams UNDER 4 (+115)

4. Total FGs made UNDER 3 (+100)

Wednesday, February 1

1. "Tebow" NOT SAID during the first quarter -200 (only Al Michaels or Chris Collinsworth can say "Tebow" from between kickoff and 0:00 in the first quarter)
- Bet this one against a colleague

Tuesday, January 31

1. Peyton Manning shown UNDER 3.5 times during the broadcast (-135) *must be shown live; kickoff to final whistle; halftime does not apply*
- This one I max bet twice in the morning and then max bet it again at +110 in the afternoon

2. Robert Kraft shown UNDER 3.5 times during the broadcast -110 (same rules as above)
- I max bet this one once at -110 and then again in the afternoon at +110

3. "Tebow" NOT SAID during the first quarter -190 (only Al Michaels or Chris Collinsworth can say "Tebow" from between kickoff and 0:00 in the first quarter)
- Just max bet this one once

Follow on twitter @MuckedNuts

A Winning Week - Finally

2011-10-18T18:54:00.008-05:00

Better late than never but this week was my best week in football betting for the season. We went 4-2 overall, won in both fantasy football leagues, and won the week in my pick'em league, although we're still 9 games out of first place.

San Jose State not only covered the 6.5 point spread, but won the game outright. Unfortunately, Michigan couldn't cover 3 on Saturday, but Sunday was finally profitable with the 49ers and Bucs not only covering, but winning outright, and the Bears, as 2 point favorites, destroying the Vikings. The Patriots won, but didn't cover.

Sticking with the Vegas Vacation theme started last week, I'll be rating each week of betting in terms of Clark Griswolds (henceforth known as Griswolds) and Nick Papagiorgios (Papagiorgios) on a scale of 1 to 4. Losing weeks will be rated on the Griswold scale. Winning weeks on the Papagiorgio scale.

The plays will probably be pretty light this weekend because I'll be in Lynchburg, Tennessee for the Jack Daniel's World Championship Invitational Barbecue - seriously.

This week: 4-2 + pick'em league weekly win = 2.5 PAPAGIORGIOS

Rough start to the season (to say the least)

2011-10-12T17:59:00.001-05:00

To say the start of my football betting and fantasy football season has been a disaster is putting it nicely. With every game, I feel like Clark Griswold at the blackjack table in Vegas Vacation (the first 3/4ths of which is one of the most underrated 3/4ths of a movie of all-time).

With each bet I make, I feel like the sportsbook manager thinks, "You don't know when to quit, do you Kozak? Here's an idea: why don't you give me half the money you were going to bet and we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!"

So how bad has it been thus far? We'll start with the least worst, which is college football. After starting out 11-6-1, we've nosedived to 13-16-2. Bets on sides are 4-6-1 and totals 9-10-1. The NFL so far has been atrocious with a 5-11 record. Two of the 5 were a double bet I did on the Colts +11 against the Steelers a few weeks ago. Totals are 1-2 and sides 4-9.

Not surprisingly, my performance in my NFL pick'em league is abysmal as I'm just three picks out of last place and 10 picks out of the lead. Picking every game against the spread so far, I'm 32-40.

Now if all that isn't bad enough, I'm also in two NFL fantasy football leagues. In league #1, I'm off to a blazing 1-4 start. In league #2 I'm the loner in the cellar at 0-5. The fantasy leagues are probably lost causes at this point as my teams mostly revolve around the Falcons and Colts offenses, with some Rashard Mendenhall sprinkled in as well.

However, with the betting and pick'em, there's plenty of time to get things turned around. In many cases I'm beating the closing lines and getting pretty good reduced vig on most of my bets. The loss of Matchbook hurts as last year there were many cases where I'd be getting +105 instead of -105 on some bets. However, this would only slightly temper the losing this year.

I should probably also have accounts at a few more books (right now only a handful), but with the difficulty of fund transfers online, and the trustworthiness of many offshore sportsbooks, I can probably make due with what I have available to me now.

Anyway, I'll keep tweeting my picks each week @MuckedNuts and hopefully the Clark Griswold in me turns to Nick Papageorgio real soon.

My Thoughts on the Full Tilt Situation

2011-09-26T19:41:00.003-05:00

As you have probably heard from most mainstream media sources, last week the U.S. Department of Justice amended its civil complaint against Full Tilt Poker, PokerStars and Absolute Poker to include as defendants Full Tilt insiders and poker pros Howard Lederer, Chris Ferguson and Rafe Furst. Additionally, the complaint now contains more specific information about Full Tilt’s debt to players, payments made to their sponsored pros, as well as other internal information which previously had been largely assumed, but not yet confirmed.

There is plenty of blame to be passed around in this debacle, from former Sen. Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Az.) the U.S. Department of Justice, the payment processors, the Alderney Gambling Control Commission, Full Tilt Poker, and even some of the players themselves.

Before I delve into the specifics of each party and their role in this mess, I would like to state that none of this would have ever happened if online poker were legalized, regulated and taxed by the U.S. government. As we have seen countless times throughout history, prohibition just pushes the activity underground, into the hands of the black market, where anything goes and no one is protected by any set of laws.

Senator Bill Frist (R-Tenn), Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz) & the UIGEA

The night before Congressional recess in October of 2006, retiring Republican Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee attached a bill called the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) to a much bigger and completely unrelated bill, The Safe Ports Act, which was considered must-pass legislation at the time (essentially, if one voted against the Safe Ports Act, one would be seen as not in favor of protecting the country from terrorists).

The UIGEA was never debated on the floor of either house, but passed anyway, thanks to our country’s convoluted ways of passing legislation. The UIGEA does not make internet gambling or internet poker illegal. The UIGEA does not define what activities are considered gambling and it doesn’t even mention poker in the bill. What UIGEA does allow, however, is internet gambling on horse racing and state lotteries. As long as Billy Boy and his cronies get a cut, it’s all good, right?

However, what the UIGEA does not allow is banks and other financial institutions to allow a transaction to an online gaming site – but it never states that transfers from online gaming sites are illegal. The UIGEA does not state how the banks are to prevent these transactions from taking place – the banks are required to do that on their own.

Immediately after the passage of UIGEA, publicly-traded online gaming companies like Party Gaming immediately pulled out of the United States market, causing the company’s stock to crater. Privately-held companies like PokerStars and Full Tilt stayed in the U.S., arguing that poker is not gambling and the UIGEA never even mentions what activities are considered gambling.

For the next four years, the UIGEA wasn’t enforced until Senator Jon Kyl decided to play hardball with the Obama Administration. Basically, Kyl said that he would block US Treasury nominees from taking office unless Timothy Geithner allowed enforcement to begin in early June, 2010 (although I am unclear as to why this falls under the Treasury Department’s jurisdiction).

The Situation Today

For the past year or two, I’ve experienced delays receiving my cashouts from Full Tilt. PokerStars sometimes had delays but not as often as Full Tilt. I always chalked these delays up to the DOJ dropping the hammer on whatever payment processors Full Tilt was using (even though UIGEA is supposed to only be for deposits). I’d often have to wait weeks to receive an ACH transfer or even a bank wire. I think my final payment took over a month to arrive, and that was a bank wire (a transaction that typically takes a day).

Near the end of 2010, I remember reading on the “Internet Poker” forum at twoplustwo.com that various individuals were successfully depositing into their Full Tilt accounts but not having their checking accounts or credit cards debited. I sort of just brushed it off as a delay from the payment processor and figured their accounts would eventually get debited. Worst case scenario, it was a rogue processor and Full Tilt might have to take a small financial hit. The players would essentially have a free roll.

I never thought any more about this until after Black Friday – April 15. While PokerStars paid out U.S. players expediently, Full Tilt delayed. I always assumed that both Stars and Tilt would pay me, but as the days went on, the more I worried. Soon enough, it became apparent that Full Tilt didn’t have the means to pay the players.

For the past few months, insider info on Full Tilt has trickled out to Noah Stevens-Davidowitz at Subject: Poker The tidbits include: outrageous loans to Full Tilt pros, Full Tilt's actual financial shortfall due to the "phantom deposits", and potential new investors.

After reading through every article on the site, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that Full Tilt was run very haphazardly and likely at no point did they ever have enough money on hand to pay out all of its players. The Department of Justice called Full Tilt a “ponzi scheme” but this is the wrong term. Full Tilt was more of a poorly run bank. Banks never keep all of their depositors’ funds in cash – they loan it out, and keep some on hand.

This wouldn’t have been a problem if we had been told by Full Tilt that this was how they were running their business. Instead, we were constantly “reminded” over the years that Full Tilt kept all its players’ balances in segregated accounts, separate from their operating funds. This, of course, was a blatant lie (pg 65). There were no segregated accounts. Just one big pot of money to use for whatever, be it a $4 million loan to Phil Ivey, $42 million in payments to Howard Lederer, or $444 million in dividend payouts to Full Tilt owners.

While Full Tilt was being run with reckless abandon, where was their regulatory oversight? Full Tilt operates in Ireland, under the Alderney Gambling Control Commission. Full Tilt was easily the largest gambling operation overseen by Alderney, so it makes perfect sense why they wouldn’t bother to audit Full Tilt or even question their way of doing business. Gotta keep those licensing fees rolling in. Now, in an effort to save face (not that they really can at this point), Alderney has suspended Full Tilt’s license, and the site has been essentially shut down since the summer. In my opinion, all this does is scare off potential investors.

This entire situation is just one disaster after another with plenty of blame to be shared. Full Tilt lied to its players, Alderney turned the other way when Full Tilt lied. The United States, instead of attempting to legalize and tax online poker, decides to do its best to just shut it down since it can’t get its greedy little paws on any of the cash. Senator Bill Frist can brag to his God-fearing, Bible-thumping constituents that he stopped the “evils” on online poker (while of course keeping his horse racing donors happy). Every piece of this absolutely disgusts me, depresses me, and quite frankly, downright pisses me off.

I have a significant, but not life-changing amount of money on Full Tilt. I used to keep life-changing money on the site, but since beginning my trading career 2.5 years ago, it was no longer necessary. However, there are full-time pros that do have life-changing money on the site that can no longer pay their rent, tuition, child support, etc. While we can debate the intelligence of keeping a high percentage of one’s net worth on an online poker site, whether or not it’s the right thing to do doesn’t matter. The money belongs to the players, not to Full Tilt or the Department of Justice. Hopefully both of those parties agree.

For the past five years, it seems like every piece of news about poker has been negative, with the Full Tilt situation being the worst of all. In trading, hopefully this is “the puke” and things only get better from here. Like we say on the trading floor when we’re stuck in a bad trade, “it’s always the darkest before the dawn.”

The market and football plays

2011-09-25T09:46:00.005-05:00

First, I am working on a post about the Full Tilt situation and hope to have that posted by early this week. There are still a lot of new developments on a daily basis so I'm trying to fit as much of that in as I can.

I'm sitting at a desk in my hotel room in Champaign waiting to eat breakfast and thought I would give a brief commentary on what I think is going on the markets right now. This week we saw the Federal Reserve go through with "Operation Twist" and extend the duration of their balance sheet. Basically, what this means is the Fed is going to sell short-term securities (3yr. notes and in) and buy longer-term securities (mostly 6-10 yr & 25+ yr). By doing this, the Fed has effectively lowered long-term rates. The 30yr bond is around 2.8% right now. This will be good for those looking for a mortgage, but bad for banks, who for the past three years have had the luxury of borrowing for nothing and lending for more than nothing (not that they were actually lending a lot of the money anyway).

What this means for stocks, I do not know. The fact that the Fed performed Operation Twist had less of an effect on the sell-off than the language used in the statement. The Fed, normally a pretty tight-lipped bunch when it comes to economic forecasting sees "significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in the global financial markets." This is likely what sent stocks into a tailspin and has investors jittery.

I decided to put on two new positions in my personal account and I'll briefly explain my rationale for doing so. Each trade is inherently different in both type of security and duration of hold.

First, on Thursday I purchased AT&T (T) slightly below the week's closing price of $27.85. This is a stock I'll likely hold for months, perhaps years - barring some type of fundamental change in the company or market conditions as a whole. "But, Chris, AT&T has the worst cellular coverage in the U.S. In New York and Chicago my call gets dropped like every time OOOMMMMGGGGG!!!!!11" Yes, that's true, so do mine (although I will say that AT&T service in Champaign-Urbana is amazing..too bad only 120,000 people live here), but everyone knows that. My reasons for buying AT&T:

1. It's on the low for the year. The two-year low is around $24. Of course, this doesn't mean it can't drop below here, but I feel more comfortable buying it here than at $31.

2. The biggest reason: 6.2% dividend yield. I can get over twice the yield on AT&T than I can loaning my money to the U.S. government for 30 years. With the implementation of Operation Twist, the mere fact that U.S. treasury yields dropped makes large dividend stocks cheaper. In theory, this should prop up the prices of these stocks as investors roll out of treasuries and into higher-yielding securities.

Trade #2 was executed on Friday and I bought about half of my normal position in the iShares Silver ETF (SLV). SLV dropped like a rock Thursday and Friday from close to $40 to under $30. I bought just under Friday's closing price of $29.98. This seems like a massive liquidation and I'm basically playing the "dead cat bounce." It's always tricky trying to catch a falling knife, which is why I only took a nibble here. If it goes down further, I'll add to make it a full position (perhaps around $25 or so). I'm not sure how long I'll hold this position, but it could be anywhere from a couple days to a couple months.

Of course, with trading, you never know for sure, so we'll see how these play out.

As for the sports plays this year, it's off to a rocky start. With only one play in college football yesterday (a loss), the NCAA record fell to 11-8-1 on the year. NFL is a dismal 2-7, but we have at least two plays for today, which I will post on twitter before the games start.

Week One Recap

2011-09-07T17:51:00.002-05:00

Week one of college football is in the books and it was a slightly profitable first week. Our plays were:

Syracuse -6
Florida Atl./Florida Over 47
W. Mich/Michigan Under 61
New Mexico +7

Despite Syracuse's coach playing "not to lose" in the fourth quarter after their huge comeback, Syracuse was able to send the game into overtime thanks to some questionable coaching by Wake Forest, and then score a TD on their opening possession and stopping Wake on 4th down to secure the seven point victory.

Despite beating the closing lines by three points each in the over/unders, we were unable to to win either. Every sportsbook cancelled all action on the Michigan game due to it being called off in the third quarter. The total was looking like a toss-up at that point with Michigan ahead 34-10. In the Florida game, I figured if Florida Atlantic could score just one touchdown, I'd have a good chance of winning this bet. If not, I also thought there was a good chance Florida could cover the total on their own. Unfortunately, neither happened and Florida won 41-3.

Finally, despite their best efforts to not cover, New Mexico did in a 14-10 defeat to Colorado State. Betting on New Mexico in football is like betting on the Astros in baseball. You sort of just want to vomit in your mouth whenever you do it.

Still looking over the lines this week. NFL begins tomorrow night, but I'm not sure if there will be a play yet or not on tomorrow's game, but surely we'll have a few for the weekend.

Week One Recap:
NCAAF: 2-1-1
NFL: 0-0
Overall: 2-1-1

The Season

2011-08-29T21:33:00.002-05:00

Football season finally, truly, begins this Thursday with the first NCAA games of the year. A full slate of college games is set for Saturday and then the NFL kicks off next weekend. I'm the first to admit I'm not a football fanatic but I'm a big Illini fan (always with very subdued expectations) and I like to see the Chicago Bears do well (although if they lose it doesn't ruin my weekend like it does for some people).

However, for some reason, the only sport I've had consistent success betting the past four years is football. I'm not sure if this is because it's easier for me to emotionally separate myself from the games than other sports or because teams play only once a week so there isn't the same amount of work required to be a consistent winner as there is in every day sports like baseball and NBA.

Unlike poker, I don't risk decent sums of money betting sports - it's more of a game for me to see if I can win over time. I consider a season a success if I can use my winnings for a very nice dinner, or a great success if the winnings can pay off a credit card bill. I'm by no means a professional and have little desire to become one. I get enough stimulation trading bonds five-plus days a week and playing poker during whatever time is left over.

Last year, I ran ridiculously hot in NFL betting and started off very well in NCAA, cooled off late in the year, and then rebounded in the bowl games. I contribute part of my success to this wonderful web site called Matchbook, where you're betting against other people, and not a casino (and thus, receive better odds on many games). Unfortunately, for whatever reason, Matchbook decided to no longer service U.S. customers, so I can no longer take advantage of lines where I could get +105 instead of -105, for instance.

Nevertheless, I have accounts at a few books, and have a couple more ready to be funded if I feel that I'm missing out on some really good lines. The only reason I don't fund it now is due to the very hostile online wagering environment that has been perpetuated by the United States government. I prefer to have as little money online as possible. I already have more than enough stuck on Full Tilt Poker.

This season I will be tweeting my picks (or doing my best to do so) before the games begin. I make a good amount of bets right before kickoff so I'll try to send them out before the game starts.

Now, I don't recommend you blindly follow my picks as I am no professional bettor and am just doing this for the fun of it. But if you're interested in how the season goes or have any comments about my selections, I'd love to hear about it. You can follow me on twitter @muckednuts.

Last season's results:

NFL
Overall: 33-18-2 64.7% 20.36% ROI
Spread: 24-12-2
Totals: 8-5
Futures: 1-1

NCAA
Overall: 41-37-2 52.6% 3.01% ROI
Spread: 26-27-1
Totals: 15-10-1

Summer Break

2011-07-20T22:08:00.002-05:00

Not a ton going on lately, thus the long break from writing. So, what has happened recently?

POKER

1. Full Tilt still has yet to pay anyone out since the April 15 indictment handed down by Eric Holder and the wonderful folks over at the U.S. Department of Justice.

2. Then, Ireland's Alderney Gambling Control Commission suspended FTP's operating license and the site is completely shutdown, pending a hearing on July 26.

3. The Los Angeles Times reported that Full Tilt would be sold to a group of European investors, who would then presumably be able to cover all the accounts payable to players in the U.S.

4. ESPN provided live coverage of the World Series of Poker Main Event for the first time this year. I watched about 25 minutes of it and was impressed with what I saw. I wasn't sure how much the recreational player would enjoy it but guys at the office were talking about it, so I'm assuming it was a success.

I would've watched more but I'm basically way too depressed over what's transpired over the past year or so with regards to online poker. I am, however, confident that we will eventually have legalized and regulated online poker in the United States. Phil Hellmuth says he thinks it will happen before the end of the year. I don't quite share his level of confidence but I think the tide is turning and we just need Congress to get it done. Of course, when it comes to Congress and getting stuff done...yeah...............

TRADING

1. The bond trade has been a struggle of late so I just try to not be a hero and grind it out each day. It's not only tough for the small guys like me, but for the big boys as well. Morgan Stanley got smoked being short 5s30s (short 5y sector vs long 30y sector) over the past few months, and if there was ever a wrong trade to be in, that was the one. I'm not trying to poke fun because I've been in plenty of bad trades in my life and will have plenty more to come. Goldman Sachs also reported disappointing revenue from their fixed income trading group in their earnings report from yesterday.

2. As for the personal account, I've had to puke a few bad trades but other than that I don't have a ton on and will do my best Dennis Gartman impression to recite my positions:

- I am long a major pharmaceutical company, long a basket of large companies that pay large dividends, long a REIT, long some corporate bonds, long silver, long a major European telecommunications company, long a basket of Nasdaq companies, long a major gold miner versus short a junior gold exploration company and short a Chinese "manufacturing" company. This may sound like a lot, but I'm over 60% in cash right now. Too confused to put a lot at risk.

SPORTS BETTING

1. Summer is pretty slow for sports betting, and I bet very small stakes for fun. However, I've taken a bloodbath betting baseball this year. My record is something like 9-21 for a loss of about 10 units. So, I'm thinking I might just stop there and wait for football to start, which along with college basketball are the only areas I can ever be profitable betting.

2. Additionally, the withdrawal of Matchbook from the U.S. market is a real deathblow during baseball season as I now no longer have access to those juicy 1-cent lines. It should be interesting to see how I can do without it in football. While not as important, it will definitely be different having to take, say, -108 instead of being able to get, say, +106 on the same bet on Matchbook.

Other than that, I've been trying to enjoy the summer and get outside. A few times I've had the itch to head over to the Horsehoe in Hammond, Ind. to play poker but it is so hard for me to justify sitting in a dingy cardroom with a bunch of depressed and negative people when I can be out in the warm weather. I know I'm giving up +EV situations but for me, summer is also +EV.

I'll be back there in October - with or without online poker.

The Eight of Clubs - A Short Story

2011-05-22T18:17:00.003-05:00

I'm killing some time before Game 3 of the Bulls-Heat series and thought I would share a somewhat funny story. A couple weekends ago I was in New York with my friend John, who was visiting from Amsterdam. After walking around the city for a couple hours, we arrived at a rooftop bar called 230 Fifth, right by Madison Square Park. The bar itself is quite spacious and offers great views of the city.

We were sitting outside enjoying the sun and the views when John began telling me some funny stories from his evening at the Russian Tea Room two nights before. Most of the stories are unfit for retelling, but there is one that is.

John was sitting at the bar and overheard a conversation from what seemed to him like a first date. The girl asked the guy something like, "what are you really good at/what are your skills?" The gentleman replied, "well, I'm good at a lot of things, but I wouldn't label myself as a 'jack of all trades.' However, I would say that I am a 'jack of most trades.'"

I reckon when you drop a line like "I'm a jack of most trades" on the typical female, date number two probably isn't anywhere on the horizon. Sober, this is funny enough, but after a screwdriver and three-and-a-half bloody marys, this is downright hysterical. So naturally, John and I delved into various topics, mockingly asking each other what trades each was and wasn't a "jack of."

John: "Automotive repair - Chris, would you say that you are a jack of that trade?"
Me: "I would say I am not a jack of that trade. John...fly fishing - are you a jack of that trade?"

And on and on it went, until this:

John: "Barbecuing - Chris, would you say you are perhaps - perhaps! - a jack of that trade?"
Me: "I wouldn't say I'm a jack of that trade, but I'd say I'm more like an eight of clubs of that trade."

The change in response initiated another round of vodka-infused laughter when John wondered aloud, "I wonder if there is any place on earth actually called 'The Eight of Clubs.' If there is, we have to agree to go there, no matter where it is. I quickly agreed and began thinking of where this potentially elusively-named establishment could be located. Australia? Hong Kong? Cape Town? Vancouver... Siberia? I was very excited at the prospect of someday going to a far-away place I've always wanted to visit, and then actually visiting a place that had inadvertently become the subject of an inside joke. Surely there must be a place called 'The Eight of Clubs" somewhere on earth, right? Right?

I wouldn't have to wait long to find out the answer. I pulled out my iPhone, opened Safari and googled the name. The browser searched and searched, and presented me with a list of results. Sure enough, The Eight of Clubs did exist. Excitedly, I clicked the link and was astonished to see its location:

230 W. 75th St
New York, NY

A mere 12 minute cab ride away! I read the review from New York Magazine aloud:

With ceilings and walls awash in purple and decor anchored by empty Absolut gift boxes, Eight of Clubs isn't for the design-conscious. Instead, this local gay hangout is unpretentious to a fault, with carpeting that could use a good vacuuming and bathrooms sorely in need of better plumbing and doors that fully close even as middle-aged patrons gradually fill up the chairs along the large, unremarkable bar once happy hour rolls around. Beyond the bar is a pool table which doesn't get much action. Farther on, a glass door leads to the bar's best feature—a large astroturfed outside area for smoking and chatting. Plastic lawn furniture is arranged haphazardly, and the walls are well graffitied, but the space makes for a refreshing change of scene when the weather cooperates.

This venue is closed. Bummer - sort of.

Another review, just for fun, from the Joe. My. God. blog:

We learned that the patrons only use the ladies room, because the men's room door has a big hole where the doorknob should be, allowing patrons seated at the bar to see directly to the toilet. A long time ago, that probably would have been done on purpose, I think. We retreated to the bar's outdoor patio, which is actually quite large and which has even more rope lighting than in the bar. We huddled in the chilly air and discussed our next destination as a gigantic drunk swayed nearby eavesdropping. He stepped over and slurred, "Are you guysh talkin' 'bout bear bars?" I said, "No, we just have beards. Sorry." A couple of minutes later the guy crashed to floor inside, bringing several barstools down with him.

Eight Of Clubs is grim and depressing, but most of all, it is spectacularly, memorably, get out the camera, tacky. I kept getting flashbacks to the horribly similar bars in Orlando that I visited in the early 80's. And while I'm very sure that Eight Of Clubs has a devoted group of patrons who love, love, love the place as their neighborhood hangout, where everybody knows their name, I just hope to Jeebus that I never become one of them.

Chance of returning: Hell fucking no.

And with that, our spirits were dashed, although we were both somewhat relieved that we didn't have to spend part of our Saturday night in Manhattan at a dilapidated gay bar on the Upper West Side. Where did we end up going that evening instead? Right back to 230 Fifth.

So now, we continue to be vigilant - always on the lookout for when an establishment called the Eight of Clubs opens again. When it does, no matter where on Earth it is, we'll be there. And after we make that journey and I'm asked about visiting Eight of Clubs, it will be my honor to respond with, "I would say I'm a jack of that trade."

PokerStars cashout

2011-04-29T18:14:00.001-05:00

I just cashed out my entire PokerStars bankroll and my account reads $0.00 for the first time since 2003.

A sad day.

On the Shutdown & Poker Life - Part Three

2011-04-25T21:21:00.002-05:00

With the shutdown on Black Friday ten days ago, no one's lives have been negatively affected more than the professional online players who rely on their poker income to eat and pay the rent. On the 2+2 forums, there is a long thread started by the Poker Players Alliance (PPA) asking people to share their stories on how their lives have been affected by our government essentially throwing them in the unemployment line. Thus, I will share a few with you. (EDIT: There are so many it is going to be more than a few)

From AcidKnight

I'm a 28 year old professional poker player. I have been playing professionally since August of 2008 after I quit my job as a structural engineer in Las Vegas - a job that it would be unlikely I'd still have today due to the economy in the US. The office where I worked now has seven people working there which is down from approximately 65 when I chose to leave in 2008.

I've been playing online poker for the last three years exclusively on Full Tilt Poker. I chose the site because of their reputation and because they did not offer any other types of casino games such as blackjack or Keno. I knew that poker is a game of skill and I knew of the UIGEA and I did not want to play on a site that offered games of chance that would increase the chances that the site would be prosecuted by the government.

I'm married and my wife and I were looking to move away from Las Vegas so that we could be closer to her family, help them out (family illness I'm not going to discuss) and also start a family of our own soon. Online poker provided me the opportunity to live wherever we wanted and still make a good income. It also provided us the freedom to have my wife work part time since I could work from home and provide a better life for the children we planned to have.

We found our dream house, put in an offer and are currently in escrow right now. It was really a perfect situation for us. Since I pay my taxes, online poker has given me the chance to prove to mortgage lenders that I'm the type of person that they want to lend money to, even in this horrible economy.

On April 15th, I found out that apparently our dreams are going to have to wait. The government decided that instead of regulating online poker and providing consumer safeguards, they were going to indict the owners of the sites and shut down online poker. I have dozens of friends who play for a living, pay taxes, support families and have done so for years because online poker was available to them. If my small cross section of friends has that many people who this was so devastating to, I cannot imagine how many more people across the country are in a similar spot.

Not only did they do so with no warning, but they did so right after all of us have just paid our taxes on our income which is derived from online poker. We have done everything that we are supposed to do and we are being punished. I personally have more than 50% of my net worth sitting on Full Tilt Poker because that's where it's supposed to be. My tax return lists my profession as "professional card player" and my bankroll is right where it needs to be, yet now I'm worried that the DOJ might decide to keep it.

They have made such a drastic change to the lives of thousands of honest and hard working Americans and we are suffering, despite committing no crime. They have taken the jobs of people for almost no reason at all, when the economy in our country is worse than it has been since the 1930's. It all seems so backwards.

Now because of the DOJ's actions, we will likely not be able to move. Our dream home will slip through our hands and back onto the market. My wife's family who needs our help will also have to wait. We are now stuck in Las Vegas because there are no jobs for me to get near my wife's family. We will also have to wait to start a family because we do not want to raise a child in Las Vegas. I know other people have far more dire situations than my own, but it is a pretty depressing time right now in our lives because of what our government has decided to do. I really wish that my hard earned money hadn't gone to paying taxes for a government that would do this to its people.

From LirvA

I'm a 28 year old musician and poker player, and like many, I have played online poker for income for the past few years. Up until now, as of about two weeks ago, poker has been my only source of income. The games have gotten harder and harder so I haven't been able to make as much money as I could have, if it weren't for the UIGEA. I now have a part time, 8 dollar an hour menial job doing yard work and other random stuff for a couple who run a small business out of their home.

But I'm not going to make this post about me. This is about other people.

Last year, one my best friends from twoplustwo, reefdawg, died at the age of 26. He was a very well known poster here on twoplustwo, and especially in the BBV4L and omg forums. I talked to this guy nearly every day for years, and he, and my other close friends here, knew and know me better than my IRL friends I've known for 15+ years.

His death was a shock, and very tragic. To honor him, we held a memorial tournament on pokerstars, and donated money to The Great War Memorial Hospital in Perth children's ward, as was his family's chosen recipient.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/62...ourney-727145/

We ended up collecting two thousand dollars and donated it.

This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 800x600.

This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 1600x1200.

This year, we did the same thing again. We raised 891 dollars, and donated it to Dignity House Hospice.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=503

reefdawg had a lot of close friends here, and I was proudly one of them. He had friends in the US, Canada, the UK, Brazil, all over the world, and we all got together and donated money to charity in memorial of him.

Thanks to the government's recent actions, we will no longer be able to do this. ... well, we in the US, anyway. We in the US will not be able to play in the reefdawg memorial tournament with our other friends across the globe, because the governement has taken online poker away from us.

The governemen't actions hurt not only me, and other US poker players like me, but it hurts places like the two we have donated money to.

You should be ASHAMED of yourselves, government

From Searix

I'm a 23 year old who suffers from Asperger's (high functioning autism). I've suffered from a speech impediment most of my life, and have had a hard time my entire life getting and keeping friends. I was on the math team in high school, won a large competition, and multiple 2nd-3rd place finishes. I was tested to have an IQ of 130.

Poker has become a life line. After testing the waters of online poker a few years ago, i've become enthralled with it. Finally i could hold a job where my intelligence is rewarded, where i can be a respectable person in my family's eyes.

I finally quit my soul devouring pizza job 3 months ago to play poker. I've been averaging 15 bucks an hour playing poker, so much more than the pizza job earning $6-7/hour where i get yelled at constantly.

I thought i was finally free. I thought my life was finally turning around. I had plans to buy a car worth more than $300, clothes that i dont have to buy from goodwill. A haircut on a regular basis. And finally, a sense of worth and pride.

That's all gone now. Come June the few thousand i've made in the brief time i played online poker will run out.

Right as i was starting to turn my life around, everything has been taken away from me.

From esevans

I don't have a gut-wrenching story to tell. Mine is just an average story of someone who played, did not devolve into a gambling addict, and will miss online poker.

I first deposited money to play poker online as a hobby on Jan 1, 2006. I set limits for myself. I decided I could afford to lose $50 dollars a month and knowing my weak financial skills I deposited $100, to be covered for January and February.

I had no idea about bankroll management, and played above my roll. Luckily for me, I won a $3 tournament for >$1000 after a few weeks, and I was set. After that time, I never deposited, unless there was a way to earn a bonus. I took a little out here and there over the years. I finally learned bankroll management sometime in 2008-9, a skill that I transferred to my personal life. Since learning bankroll management, my poker finances are fine, and my personal financial situation has improved drastically. While I still have bills, they are under control, and I have managed to start a Roth IRA and have funded it to the point I have an average amount saved for someone in their early 40's (as I am). Not bad for a 3 year old IRA.

In addition to bankroll management, I learned self-control. Playing poker online forced me to see some of my personality defects, and through the years, make some improvement. Now, when something bad happens, I only go through the ceiling, and not the roof. I have learned to be more patient in life. I look back on wasted years of my life and see the value of hard work. The natural aging process helped. But online poker was the real teacher.

From glitlr

Hi, Everyone. How's this for a horror story...

I am a professional poker player from CA and run a website www.sngprotege.com . It is a training site for backing and coaching players.

The night before the poker shut down, I signed papers to buy my first house, and now I don't have the money to pay for it...
I also didn't receive my huge cash out to pay my taxes...
My gf, soon to be fiance, is not my soon-to-be-wife cause I can't afford it now...
My entire life savings is frozen...
I was planning on getting married and having kids, I can't now...

ty US gov't, for completely ruining my life

From bobodaclown

I have a law degree and left my practice to play poker online. Poker is an ideal life style for me. When I was a lawyer I could never find time to go to the gym or sleep late enough not to be tired. Now I can play until 4am, get up at noon, take my dog to the park, and work a half day before my girlfriend gets home.

I was also the biggest Obama fan in the room during the 2008 elections, and for the most part since. I really hope the phone lines were out between New York and DC last week. I am not in favor of people behaving fraudulently, and if the charges in the indictment are true then consequences are likely in order.

But I am also really upset that in the United States of America, with a President that I love in office, I am not allowed to sit in my house on my computer and pursue the living of my choice. I am hurting no one, I am paying my taxes, and I am a contributing member of society.

Ironically this action by the federal government will increase unemployment and decrease tax revenue, at a time when this country can afford neither. I really hope we can get this thing fixed so I can go back to check raising all you donks out there.

peace, and good luck to everyone who's life will be impacted by all of this idiocy.

From Teppec, a US Vet

A little info about me, I'm 38 years old and I'm a vet. I served a 4 year term in the navy. I've never quite adjusted since I got out. I've had a variety of issues because of it, but the essence is that I was never able to maintain a job or relationship or one of my several attempts at college.

In 2008, I moved right before the economy went belly up with my then girlfriend. Had to quit a decent job to move, but after the move, I couldn't find work. I decided to try and turn my hobby in to full time employment. I had been playing online poker off and on since 2004. It would give me the ability to be able to move easily, something that was a concern because my girlfriend was finishing a degree and we expected to move at least twice more. However, because of some personal things that happened, along with the stress of moving, the difficulty of finding work etc, I spiraled in to a pretty brutal depression. Over most of 2009, I watched my life fall to pieces around me. Needless to say, the attempt at playing poker stopped. I almost ceased to function completely, but thankfully with some help from friends and family and some friendly medication, things managed to start looking up.

At some point near end of 2009 I regrouped and I began to play again with a renewed focus with the small bankroll I possessed at the time with the assistance of a friend. I used a small poker community I was a part of for support. I talked and I studied and I learned and I improved, even while dealing with the life fallout I'd just gone through. Between actual playtime on top of all the time spent studying and reviewing and discussing, I was easily putting in at least 50-60 hours a week and loving it. Over the last year and a half, I managed to get to a point where I was self sufficient on poker. I am nowhere near as successful as some people in here, but I was doing alright, I was making a little more than I needed to make ends meet, and I was constantly working at improving and getting better. Most importantly, I had no need or desire to do things like ask for help from the government. Something I considered when I was bottoming out in the depression. Instead of getting help from the government, I was earning money that I was then bringing in to my community and spending.

Anyway, something in poker was able to motivate me to drive and study and improve and just want to be better and want more. No other job I've ever had was able to motivate me in such a way. Additionally, some of the people I've met because of poker have become some of the best friends I've ever had. I was even making plans to take trips to see some of them, people scattered all over the country and the world. Before Friday April 15th, my life was looking up in a way it had not in several years. I had been projecting, based off my last 6 months, that I would make more money this year than I had in any other year ever for any job I've ever worked. I was starting to almost feel successful at my chosen profession.

Poker has given me so so much more than just income and money, though. Drive to succeed and compete and most importantly to continue learning, some brilliant friends (because let's face it, do you know any idiots who are winning players?), the ability to work from home (I've saved thousands of dollars in gasoline the last several years not commuting as well as lowering my carbon footprint, GO GREEN), and just, frankly, a pretty cool ****ing job, forgive my french.

But now, instead, I've got most of my net worth tied up in full tilt, I have withdrawals that I'm probably never going to receive or checks on the way I'm expecting to bounce, and realistically I could be homeless within a month or two if I can't get access in the next couple of weeks to any of that money to pay rent and bills with. My net worth is almost completely frozen and inaccessible, I effectively lost my job today and my ability to support myself in the short term, and I have no idea what I'm going to do since it's not like the job market has gotten any better in the last couple of years. Especially for someone like me.

I don't know what's going to happen, or how the bigger picture in all of this is going to play out, but I do know that these events are crippling me greatly and I really am lost as to what my next step is going to be.

On the flip side, I can still successfully wager on horses online, and I can watch little old ladies dump their social security checks into quarter slots. But hey, online poker isn't ok. Oh the hypocrisy. Yes, I'm very bitter and angry and upset over this. I just wish I knew what I could do because at it's heart, this whole thing just isn't right.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse

On a final note, they don't really recognize how many brilliant and intelligent minds obsess the poker lifestyle; I am sure that now most of us would never want to contribute anything to the U.S. government that turned its back on us on this day.

Just wanted to add that this is so unbelievably true. Some of the smartest people I've ever met I met through poker.

From Goofus31

I’m a 41 year-old, disabled citizen who suffered my first stroke at age 25 and my second late in 2009, at the age of 40. I live on an extremely tight budget with a small amount set aside each month for my “personal allowance” – an amount that wouldn’t even buy me a cup of coffee five days a week. In early 2009, on a whim while recovering from my second stroke, I decided to learn why poker was generating so much buzz. I learned about the high-level thinking involved in this game. The mathematics, logic, patience, discipline, quick thinking and skill necessary to succeed at poker captured my attention. A small amount of cash (in my case, $20) and a willing mind were the only requirements to participate – a particularly attractive fact to me. Being disabled didn't matter online.

I played controlled and within my limits. My skills slowly improved and I even accumulated small but meaningful winnings - enough to contribute to my grocery bill – no small thing to someone living on an extremely tight budget. I started to ‘dream’ about maybe earning enough to help pay for prescriptions in addition to food. Because of my relative inexperience and limited funds, I played online at the penny tables. These penny games are not available at live casino’s and card rooms. In fact, I would need my entire monthly allowance for just one night at a casino. Even if the funds were available (they’re not), access and transportation are huge obstacles for me further constraining my ability to play. Driving is extremely limited (though improving) and not possible after dark because of my stroke. Playing online was the only viable option for me. While others chose to watch TV, I would spend that time playing poker. But not anymore.

But instead of making a concerted effort toward establishing regulation and reaping the benefit of a new revenue stream, our government (federal and state) is choosing to attack online poker and in the process, is hurting good, decent, tax-paying citizens. As a Washington State resident the latest effort by the federal government to end online poker has only added insult to injury. My state already passed a law making it a felony to play online poker – a felony commensurate with being a sex offender. I can still purchase state lottery and keno tickets, bet on horse races and spend a month’s salary at card rooms or tribal casinos. As of January this year, if I were on state assistance (I’m not), I could empty my welfare debit card at a casino or strip-club ATM and spend the money on video slot machines, roulette tables and lap dances. (see http://www.king5.com/news/investigat...103172864.html , and http://www.king5.com/news/investigat...114610089.html )

In Washington’s 2008 gubernatorial elections, it was revealed that tribal gaming sources contributed over $650,000 to Gov. Gregoire’s re-election efforts. These same tribal casinos contribute zero tax dollars from their gaming revenue to my state’s economy (they are considered an independent government) and face virtually no competition for consumer gaming dollars. I fully support efforts to improve the economy of native tribes. I do not support monopolistic enterprises. (see http://www.seattlepi.com/local/artic...no-1276446.php )

Poker players, both professional and recreational, self-report their winnings to the IRS and are pushing for federal and/or state regulation of online poker, creating new federal and state revenue streams. Playing poker is not a crime. It’s time to make this happen and let the decent citizens of this country enjoy the freedom to play.

Here's a post that is fairly eye-opening and something you would be more likely to see on the finance blog, zerohedge...

I am a 36 yr old Soldier with the U.S. Army current serving In IRAQ. This Aug i will have 19 years of Active Federal Service and have spent the majority of my life for protecting Freedom and the American Way of Life.
I have 3 tours in IRAQ 2003-2004, 2005-2006, 2010-2011, and have 1 tour to Afghanistan 2008-2009.
I created an Organization called Screaming Eagle Poker (SEP)and have a great relation ship with the PPA. We wrote to PPA back in Dec of 2005 and they decided to sponsor our free poker league in IRAQ giving us T-shirts, chips, free memberships. Supporting those who supported their Freedom. Its was a great Morale Booster for the troops improving our quality of life during our off time when we were not on mission.
Thru this organization we built great relationship with BLUFF magazine, World Poker Tour and even had Pros like Mike Sexton and Kenna James support SEP. With their help we raised over $175,000.oo for the Wounded Warrior Organization (a non-profit) that helps wounded Soldiers. We even raised additional $50,000 for the Youth YMCA and the Association for the United States Army (an organization the lobbies for service men and women) thru SEP. We had serveral article on SEP in Bluff Magazine from 2006-2009.After 2009. I had to put SEP on hold due to constant deployments to the Middle East and the time it was taking away from my family when i was home.

Online Poker was a hobby for me and helped make my deployment time easier dealing with the stresses of being a Soldier and being away from my Family.
I have spent 4 out of the last 8 years of my life in the Middle East defending the American way of life just to see my efforts go in VAIN! I love my country and have devoted my life protecting what it stands for!

With Unemployment Rate is 8.8%... Gas prices up to $4 and on the rise, Social Security on the verge of going Bankrupt. Record 2.9 Million U.S. Properties Receive Foreclosure Filings in 2010. Goverment steals 700 BILLION!!! from the America People in Tarp Bailout 2 months before an Election... But the Average American doesnt care until it effects them..Well that day has come!

Everyday we are losing our civil liberties with things like The Patriot Act and homeland security is a freaking joke. We are no safer today than we were 10 years ago and if you could see the money we are wasting in IRAQ in Afghanistan it would make your head spin. Over $3 Trillion
They are saying we are not over in IRAQ for the OIL.. Not True. Its just not for you and me. Its for the CHINESE and the greedy people in Washington. Every week we have to support a mission where Chinese people fly in and work on an oil rig near our base. There is so much corruption in America that i m sad to be an American.

Any yes i am a die hard Poker Player on Full Tilt for over 7 yrs. I have about $1k tied up online and will lose over 70,000 Full tilt points. I am no longer able play online, but you can send me half way across the world to protect OIL that we are giving away to the Chinese. (probably to pay back our loans). You should be going after AIG, Goldman Sachs, or the big Banks who stole 700 Billion right under our noses back in 2008, but you are going after what 3 Billion dollars in poker money... That peanuts.
For the 1st time in 19 years i earned over $60,000 yearly income(thru my Army Pay) to support a family of 4! I retire next year after 20 years of Serving my country...So please don't question my Patrotism!
The American Dream and Freedom is JOKE...Its a facade! We are just peasants serving the KING!

Its not just poker they are going after people... Its your Freedom that really being threaten! Its time to stand up and fight back.... Whats next! Support the PPA and continue to Support the Troops!

Felix Gutierrez
Founder (President)
Screaming Eagle Poker
"Willing to Die...In Order to live" Tm

On the Shutdown & Poker Life - Part Two

2011-04-19T22:32:00.003-05:00

Picking up from yesterday's post...

From that point until June of 2009 I made a nice living solely off of my income from playing online poker. Of course, there were a number of ups and downs and there were plenty of days where I “went to work” and then finished work with less money than I had when I started.

The money, the freedom, and being your own boss are three of the best aspects of being a professional poker player. However, one aspect that I feel is often overlooked is the doors that can open to you from playing poker. I now have one of the best jobs in the world (for someone like me) solely because of my years playing online poker. My resume stood out from the 500 or so others who applied for my position because it said “Professional Poker Player” at the top. Trading is just a socially-accepted poker game with much higher stakes, and in my case, much less personal risk. How can it get better than that?

With this crackdown, those doors of opportunity might close for those like me, who don’t want to be a pro poker player for the rest their lives, but want to be able to apply their poker skills elsewhere in the world. And that would be a shame.

So, where do we go from here? Is online poker dead? Is our money gone? Do we have to go work at KFC now? Here are my answers and predictions for the future of the poker industry:

1. Online poker is not dead. It’s just going to be different, and it might not involve PokerStars or Full Tilt anymore. There is too much momentum in the United States to legalize and regulate the industry. People want their poker and the government wants their piece of the action too. Eventually, this will happen. However with the way things move in this country, it’s anyone’s guess as to when.

2. I envision a situation like the state lotteries or horse racing, where individual states will set up their own poker sites and legislation, and then after seeing how lucrative it is, will team up with other states like they have with the Powerball Lottery, and with betting on any horserace across the country. I just hope that the sites will be owned by private-sector companies like Caesars, MGM or Full Tilt and PokerStars instead of owned and operated by the government.

3. Is our money gone? That I do not know. No one does. If you have money on PokerStars or Full Tilt, I could see a “2006 Neteller situation” play out where it might take 6 months or so to actually receive your money, but you do end up receiving it. If you have money on one of the scumbag sites like Absolute Poker or Ultimate Bet, I would not be as confident.

4. What to do now? If you’re a pro player, I would just hold out and see how things shake out over the next few weeks. There’s no need to take any drastic actions yet. I know a lot of guys keep 80%+ of their net worth on online poker sites, but hopefully you can make ends meet until things shake out. Go play live at a casino if you’re old enough and located close enough to one. I did that on Saturday. It was actually fun.

5. Finally, I would say if you care at all about this topic, and if you’ve bothered to read this far you probably do, WRITE TO YOUR CONGRESSMEN and other leaders of government. The Poker Players Alliance has links to send letters to the President, Attorney General, and Congressmen. You can send their pre-written “form letter” or write your own. The form letter probably takes about 30 seconds to send. I’ve sent letters to President Obama, Attorney General Holder, Senators Dick Durbin (D) and Mark Kirk (R), and Representative Danny Davis (D). These people might not read your letters, but the more they receive, the more likely their staff will tell them “hey, we’re getting a lot of letters from poker players – you might want to address this.”

Link to send letters: Here

Later in the week I will post Part Three to this series, which will likely be the final part. During a lull in the market today (which was pretty much the entire day), I was reading a thread on 2p2 called “How (the crackdown) Impacts You” which at the time had 16 pages of stories from young pros, old pros, amateurs, students using poker to pay down school debt, middle-aged women using poker as supplemental income…basically poker players from all across the spectrum. Some of the stories are very touching, and I feel really bad for a lot of the people who have had their livelihoods ripped out from underneath them by the heavy-handed and over-reaching actions from our government on Friday afternoon. Compared to some of the folks in the thread, the crackdown makes my situation seem like a minor inconvenience. Thus, I will share their stories instead of mine.

On the Shutdown & Poker Life - Part One

2011-04-18T23:01:00.003-05:00

I decided to split this post up into a few parts (two or three). I wanted to post the first part now so I can stay consistent with my goal of updating this on a more regular basis...

As many people know, this past Friday was a dark day for the poker industry when the United States Department of Justice seized the web domains of major online poker sites Full Tilt Poker and PokerStars and charged the companies with violating the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) of 2006 (which, I might remind everyone was considered a meaningless piece of legislature that was a last-minute addendum to the must-pass Safe Ports Act before Congressional recess that year). As a result of these charges, both Full Tilt and PokerStars no longer allow American players to play for real money on their sites.

My reactions when I first heard the news were shock, disbelief, outrage, fear (for my money on those sites) and disappointment. Over the past year, we’ve made great progress towards legalizing and regulating the industry in the United States at a national and state level. Ironically enough, just last week Washington D.C. passed legislation to legalize and regulate online poker within the District of Columbia.

But as the hours went by, my reactions went from anger to sadness as I was finally coming to terms with the loss of something that has the predominant influence in my life for the past six years. The first time I played online poker was the spring of my sophomore year of college, 2003. ESPN was televising reruns of the 2002 World Series of Poker (the year before Moneymaker with amateur Robert Varkonyi and professional Julian Gardner heads up for the bracelet which Varkonyi ended up winning) and I was hooked instantly. I downloaded the play money poker room at Windows Casino or some no-name place and I remember the first session I played I got a royal flush. Easy game!

However, I really started to play consistently about a year later. I made my initial $50 deposit on PokerStars in the winter of 2004. I ran it up to $150, thought I was the greatest thing ever, and then lost it all. I deposited another $50 and lost that too. Then I deposited another $50 and haven’t looked back since. I wasn’t making major bank while in school as I was too concerned with getting good grades and finding a good job for after graduation, but I played when I could and was always trying to improve and not lose my money.

My first cashout was in February of my senior year of college. I had some success grinding $10, $20, and $30 sit-n-gos, requested a check, and along with $300 in cash took a weekend trip to Las Vegas with some of my buddies who attended other schools in the Midwest. I’ve been to Vegas probably almost a dozen times and that first trip is still my favorite one, despite being a poor college student. I figured if I lost the cash I could just cash the check to get me through the weekend. After Martingaling blackjack and roulette and not getting screwed, that didn’t happen and after all expenses I came out about even.

When school ended, I started my professional career as a management consultant at a boutique consulting firm in the western suburbs of Chicago. This was one of the better jobs to land out of undergrad, but I knew by my second day that it was not something I would enjoy doing. Plus the hour-plus drive from Chicago every day was a major pain in the ass as well. However, I stayed with it, but also kept playing on the side when I could.

Then things really began to click in the spring of 2007 (which is AFTER UIGEA happened – don’t let anyone tell you the games died with UIGEA, it’s not true). A typical day would go something like this:

6am: Wake up
6:45am: Drive to work
8:00am: Arrive at Work
8:00am-5pm: Work
5pm-7pm: Gym in burbs (great combo of exercise and missing the worst rush-hour traffic)
7:40pm: Home, shower, dinner
9:00pm-11:30pm: Grind online
Midnight (although oftentimes later): Bed

There were multiple mornings when my alarm went off, I’d drag my ass out of bed and into the shower and ask myself why I was going to work on a lack of sleep when just a few hours earlier I finished a session where I made more money in an evening than I received in my paycheck every other week. What was the matter with me? Of course, there were a few mornings where I had lost a paycheck the night before too, but overall I had finally started to build some real confidence (and money) and began to believe that I could be a successful poker player.

In the middle of August in 2007, I walked into one of the partners’ offices, and gave him my two-week notice.

I was officially a professional poker player.
----------------------

I'll post Part Two in the next couple days.

Trade idea: BIOD

2011-04-10T21:09:00.004-05:00

Off to a good start with my promise to post more. Thought I'd share a trade idea I had this week. On Monday I bought some Biodel Inc (BIOD) at $2.10/share. This is a pure technical play and I'll go over the reasons why I decided to buy it and what my plans are for the shares I hold. After looking over the financials, there isn't much reason to scoop this stock up, so this probably isn't one you want to hold until you retire.

Total Cash: $22 mil
Levered Free Cash Flow: -$20 mil (yuck)
% of shares short: 20%
% held by insiders: 18% (not bad)

So yeah, the financials are garbage, but with these little biotechs, one drug can change a company's fortunes in the blink of any eye. Just look at Dendreon (DNDN).

However, for how bad the financials are, the technicals look decent. After plummeting from $3.50 to $2 the stock has been in a slow rising bottom pattern with three days of huge upside volume - two in January and one in the beginning of March. Right now I have a stop around $1.85 and expect the stock to start hitting upside resistance around $3.00. At $2.15/share right now we're risking $0.30 to make $0.85 for a 2.8/1 risk-reward. Of course, the better price you can buy, the higher your risk-reward. I'll continue to update going forward and hopefully the stock doesn't completely collapse tomorrow right after I feature it.

Please enjoy the MS Paint editing on the chart.

Matchbook, Going forward

2011-04-09T22:01:00.004-05:00

Early last month, my sports betting endeavor was dealt a major blow as Matchbook.com announced that it was leaving the U.S. market after being purchased by another company. What's most unfortunate about this is that I could usually get the best lines and odds on Matchbook and paid little to no vig, as it is a betting exchange, where you bet against other people (basically like a stock market for sports games) and not the casino. Additionally, Matchbook pays you a part of the commission fee they take on every trade if your bid/offer is hit/lifted by someone else.

The departure of Matchbook is particularly painful in baseball, as you can usually get cent-wide moneylines for most games. At a regular sportsbook, the best you can usually get is a dime line, although there are a few sites that offer reduced vig for certain bets. Anyway, it's disappointing, but I should be able to make due in football season at the regular books.

Finally, I just want to note that the Matchbook management did what I thought was a very good job in returning U.S. customers' money in a timely fashion. From the date of my withdrawal request to the day the money appeared in my account, just under three weeks passed. Now, you might think that is absurdly long time, and for "normal" transactions it is. However, in the current online gaming environment we live in, this is pretty good - especially when you think there is a 50% chance you might never see that money again. Hopefully we keep moving closer and closer to legalization and regulation (we're getting very close now for poker) and this will not be an issue for much longer.

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My blogging energy has come back thanks in part to a fellow Illini, rickj, who is a professional sports bettor and poker player who lives in Las Vegas. Rickj runs a blog called Rickj's Handicapping Picks where he posts his plays for the day, writes about sports betting and poker and posts some of his trade ideas. I don't really bet Rick's picks since the lines typically move after he posts them, but the man certainly knows what he's doing.

I thought to myself, hey my life isn't that much different, except that I'm a professional trader and play poker for side income (and dabble in sports for fun and to see if I can beat it). At the prop firm I trade at, I specialize in fixed income derivatives. Because I trade these products at work, and because most people don't pay attention to or have access to the bond market, there will likely be very little bond trading discussion on here. That said, I will talk about stocks and trades I make in my somewhat actively traded personal account. I'll also continue to post stories about the highs and lows of trading, poker, and sports betting. Additionally, any trades or bets I make I'll post on my twitter feed @MuckedNuts (shameless plug). So there you have it. Expect more activity here and there going forward.

Sports betting, Poker

2011-01-19T22:12:00.002-06:00

It's been a while since an update so instead of going through every single bet I've made in the last month, I'll say that 2010 ended with a 6.72% ROI for +15.03 units. 2011 has started out ok. I'm up 3.78%, but I've barely bet at all and that is only 0.91 units. Perhaps I'll get some more action going this weekend.

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So I've come to a bit of a crossroads in my poker career over the past three or four months. My game is not as good as it used to be and I just don't have the same amount of time to put into the "not playing" aspects of the game like hand history review, reading strategy posts on the forums, watching videos, etc. I don't think I've reviewed my hand histories since April. I'll read some strategy posts but that's only when the market is agonizingly slow at work and I can't remember the last Cardrunners video I watched.

As such, my game has stalled out. I still play the same stakes I played two years ago. I'm still winning, but it's become difficult to take the games seriously. I make many more crying calls, spaz out more often and go on auto-pilot when I should be thinking harder about each individual hand.

Now that trading has overtaken poker as my primary source of income I don't have the same urgency to come home after work and grind it out. In fact, when I do sit to play, more often than not it feels more like a chore than a game, regardless of whether I win or lose.

The other thing I've realized is that trading is much much much much less stressful than playing poker for a living (that's not to say trading isn't stressful - it is very much so). Losing days suck in each. Not only do they suck, but they hurt. It really hurts to lose money. But the difference is when you have a losing day in poker, the money comes right out of your account and right into someone else's. Technically the same thing happens in trading, but in poker, when you lose you are losing money you already have. When I lose at work, I'm losing an amount of money that I'm owed in the future. You could look at it as direct and indirect losses, and at the end of the day they are almost the same thing, but psychologically it is much easier for me to handle losing what I don't yet have instead of losing what I already have. That said, I don't just shrug off losing days at work. Depending on how the money was lost, I'm often more pissed off after a losing day at work than I am when I lose at poker.

Another major issue is that I don't have the best schedule for a poker player. Below is a typical weekday:

4:30am - Wake up
6:00am-4:00pm - Trading at work
4:30pm - Get home
5:00-6:00pm - Work out
6:45-7:30pm - Dinner
7:30pm - ?? - Exhaustion

One of the last things I want to do after staring at eight computer monitors for ten hours straight is to come home and stare at a big monitor with eight poker tables on it. It's very difficult to find time to play poker, let alone study it.

So this brings up the question, what should I do? It would be very difficult to just walk away completely, but I need to change something...

1. Play higher
- I could just move up in stakes and play the higher mid-limit and lower high-limit games. I won't get bored and you can bet your ass I'll be taking it seriously. However, the players will be much better than what I face now and I'll likely be out-classed at the table.

2. Play more six-max and less heads-up
- I should be doing this anyway. Heads-up action has been very slow. However, it can often take a long time to get on a good six-max table too.

3. Play more tournaments
- I would love to be able to do this, but I can't play any during the week, and it's tough on the weekends since the big tourneys go well past midnight and I'm usually busy with other stuff on Saturdays and Sundays. I haven't played a tourney since Feb. 2010 and even more pathetic, I haven't cashed in a tourney since Nov. 2007.

4. Retire completely
- This has been crossing my mind more and more each day. Should I just focus 100% of my efforts on trading? Probably. Am I ready to do that yet? Ehh...

I think the best course of action is to take a poker hiatus. It might last a week, a month, maybe forever. I'm not ready to officially hang it up but I need a break to see if I really miss poker when I don't play at all.

I'm back

2010-12-21T14:41:00.004-06:00

So I've been really lazy with updating how the sports betting has been going. Since my last update nearly five weeks ago, I've only made 26 bets, turning a small profit. However, 26 is a lot to go through game by game so I'll just give a recap by sport with a few notable bets.

NCAAF:
I've made four NCAA Football bets in the last month, losing all four of them. They were: Buffalo at Akron Over 42 (22-14), Nebraska vs Oklahoma -3.5 (20-23), and Oregon at Oregon State +16.5 (37-20), Illinois at Fresno State Over 58 (23-25). With this recent slide, my record falls to 38-35-2 for a whopping profit of 0.08 Units

NFL
Thankfully, the NFL wasn't as bad, but it wasn't great either. Since the last update I've gone 8-7, bringing my yearly record to 30-17-2 and a profit of 12.47 Units.

Last night I tried to middle the Bears-Vikings game. I got Vikings +8 (-110) early in the day and then I was able to snag the Bears -6 (-105) before kickoff (at some books it went all the way to -5.5). Sadly for the bet, the Bears torched the Vikings and I ended up just paying the vig on one bet.

NCAAB
I began my NCAA basketball betting with a few bets at the beginning of the month but nothing since then. Once conference play picks up I'll be betting this a lot more. In NCAA basketball there weren't too many interesting games I ended up betting on, but my record to date is 2-4-1 for a loss of 1.72 Units

Everything YTD:
+12.2 Units
5.49% ROI

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Nothing else is too new. I had a great time in Amsterdam and Scotland and highly recommend a trip to Scotland if you're ever in that part of Europe. Even in November, it's a blast.

Sen. Harry Reid is trying to pass legislation that would legalize and regulate online poker in the U.S. I've been reading a lot about the bill and it seems to be changing by the day, so I'll save comment on that for if/when it actually passes through Congress.

Other than that, I'm just going to enjoy my couple weeks off and enjoy the holidays. Hopefully the Illini men's basketball team can things back on track tomorrow night against Missouri. If not, I'm afraid we could be in for another roller coaster season.

Week 10 & 11 Recap

2010-11-16T20:10:00.002-06:00

Week 10

NCAA

North Carolina at Florida State -10
I was a touch off with this one. UNC pulls the upset win 37-35.

Northwestern at Penn State -5.5
Staying with the "Northwestern always blows the cover" theme of the past few weeks, this week was no different. NU squanders a 21-0 lead and Penn State emerges with a 35-21 win.

Akron at Ball State -13.5 (-102)
The "betting against Akron" theme ran its course this week as the game went into overtime and Ball State wins 37-30

NFL

Buccaneers +10 (-102) at Falcons
The Bucs aren't as good as the Falcons, but they're not 10 points worse either. Falcons win it 27-21.

Saints -6 (-101) at Panthers
Saints coming off big win at home vs Steelers. Panthers are terrible. Bad combination for Carolina. Saints win it 34-3.

Bears at Bills +3 (-102)
This one was looking good until the Bears scored the go-ahead TD late, AND converted the 2pt attempt. This ended in a push. Bears 22-19.

Jets -5 (-106) at Lions
I figured the Jets would come out firing on all cylinders after getting shut out at home against Green Bay. The Jets did win, however not by enough. In overtime, Jets 23-20.

Chiefs at Raiders Over 40.5 (-104)
I thought this one would be much higher scoring than it was. Thank you, Sebastian Janikowski for saving the bet. In overtime, Raiders 23, Chiefs 20.

Cowboys at Packers -7 (-106)
This whole sports betting thing is an easy game, right? Packers 45, Cowboys 7.

Week 8 Recap
NCAAF: 1-2 -1.84 Units
NFL: 4-1-1 +4.04 Units

Week 11

I had no Week 11 plays because I was in Tuscaloosa, AL for the Alabama-Mississippi State game. Because I make most of my bets right before the game starts, I had no access to internet while on campus so I didn't make any plays. Additionally, because I do so much betting right before game time, that's why I don't publish my picks ahead of time. I don't feel like making a new blog post for each game I do.

I doubt I'll have any plays this coming week either as I'll be in Amsterdam and Scotland for a week. However, Ladbrokes and William Hill are always just around the corner so you never know...

Season to Date:
NCAAF: 38-31-2 +5.77 Units
NFL: 22-10-2 +11.27 Units (running a bit above EV are we?)

Everything YTD:
+18.41 Units
9.83% ROI

Week 8 & 9 Recap

2010-10-31T20:39:00.003-05:00

Lots of bets to cover. Here we go...

Week 8
NCAA

Washington State +36.5 (-105) at Stanford
36.5 is a lot to cover, and while WSU is bad, I don't think they're as bad as they have been the last few years (which is really damn bad). I didn't watch the game, but it looked like WSU made a game of it and lost 38-28.

Colorado State +30.5 (-105) at Utah
Same reasoning as above. Didn't work. Utah killed them 59-6.

Washington at Arizona Under 53.5 (-107)
Arizona has a decent defense and I thought Washington could at least slow them down on offense. I was wrong. Arizona with the easy 44-14 win.

Kansas State +7 (-105) at Baylor
Another high scoring game. I actually thought K-State would win this one before I bet it but I didn't have the stones to go with the moneyline. Baylor squeezes out a 47-42 win.

LSU at Auburn -6 (+108)
I like betting against stupidity. Thus, I usually like to bet against LSU. Auburn comes through with the cover 24-17.

Nebraska at Oklahoma State Under 60 (-107)
Silly me for thinking someone would stop someone else in this game. Nebraska wins it 51-41.

Western Michigan -7 (-106) at Akron
Akron is just terrible. I don't think home field advantage was much of one for them. W. Michigan rolls to a 56-10 win.

Georgia Tech at Clemson -5.5 (+109)
What I've seen of GaTech this season I haven't liked. Clemson should've won at Auburn. Clemson pulls out a 27-13 win.

Maryland at Boston College Over 41 (-103)
Any totals in the low 40s for college I'll usually bet on. It just seems too low for a college game. Maryland wins it 24-21.

Indiana at Illinois Under 56 (-106)
While I was thrilled with the huge win by the Illini, I couldn't help but be somewhat less than thrilled with the pick-6 at the end of the game by the Illini defense capping off a 43-13 win and pushing the total when it looked like I'd hold on for the under.

Michigan State -5 (-105) at Northwestern
Almost simultaneously with the Illinois pick-6 was a lucky TD by Michigan State at the end of the game to cover for me. This one was looking bad the entire way and I just got lucky at the end. MSU 35-27.

Penn State at Minnesota +9.5 (+103)
Neither of these teams is very good but Minnesota has at least kept it respectable when playing at home. 9.5 seemed like a lot to give to a less-than-stellar Penn State team, but it wasn't enough. Penn State 33-21.

Duke at Virginia Tech Under 61 (+105)
I figured VaTech would roll in this one, but to get to the over the other team usually has to score a bit too. Duke couldn't do anything (as expected) and VaTech wins it 44-7.

NFL

Redskins at Bears Over 40 (-107)
This was a very painful game to watch as three TDs were wiped off the board by penalty, turnover, or stupidity (Lovie Smith not challenging a goal line TD by Cutler). Ugh. Redskins win it 17-14.

Jaguars at Chiefs -9 (+104)
This one was pretty back and forth until the end and the Chiefs pulled away to a 42-20 win.

Bengals at Falcons -3.5 (+100)
I was sitting pretty at halftime with a 20 pt Atlanta lead, and then Cincy rolled off 22 in the 3rd quarter. Atlanta came back, however and won it 39-32.

Browns at Saints Saints Over 14.5 pts in the 2nd half.
This one moved from 14 to 14.5 right before I bet it, but I figured New Orleans was going to score about 28 on Cleveland so it wouldn't matter. Well, they ended up scoring 14, and a push became a loss.

Cardinals at Seahawks Over 40 (+104)
Another brutal game. Seahawks win 22-10.

Cardinals +7 (-105) at Seahawks
Why do I bet on the Cardinals?

Vikings at Packers -2.5
I've been very bearish on the Vikings so far this year. This seemed like a fairly easy one. It was a lot closer than I expected but the Packers still hung on for the cover 28-24.

Week 8 Recap
NCAA: 8-5-1 +3.58 Units
NFL: 3-4 -1.04 Units

Week 9
NCAA

Northwestern at Indiana +3 (+115)
This one was bouncing around 3 and 3.5. I had my choice and took 3 for cheaper. I think Northwestern is so overrated and I've only been somewhat impressed watching one of their games (vs MSU). I figured Indiana could easily win this one. At the very least, Northwestern did what they always do at the end of the game, and that's blow the cover. NU ended winning 20-17, but a loss became a push.

Tulsa at Notre Dame -8.5 (-103)
I guess Notre Dame is a lot worse than I thought too. Tulsa with the win 28-27.

Purdue at Illinois Over 41 (-105)
The Illini continue to roll, this time with a 44-10 win.

Auburn at Mississippi Under 61 (-104)
This didn't work so well. Auburn with a 51-31 win.

Auburn -7 (+107) at Mississippi
This did work, however.

San Jose St at New Mexico State Over 45.5 (-107)
Two bad teams. Two bad offenses. Two bad defenses. I think a great defense beats a great offense, but a bad offense beats a bad defense. NMSU pulls out the squeaker 29-27.

NFL

Panthers at Rams -3 (+117)
The Panthers blow. I was surprised it was as close as it was. Rams 20-10.

Redskins at Lions -2.5 (-107)
This one wasn't looking so hot until late. Thank you, Rex Grossman. Lions win it 37-25.

Titans +6 (-108) at Chargers
Got this one in at the last second as a bunch of money was moving the line against Tennessee. I was looking really good early on with a 19-7 Titan lead. However, that quickly evaporated, along with the cover. Chargers win it 33-25.

Vikings at Patriots -4.5 (-108)
This one was between 5 and 6 all day and then I was able to snag 4.5 right before kickoff. I'll bet against Vikings and Favre all day (if the price is right, of course). The price was right here. Patriots 28-18.

Buccaneers +3 (+110) at Cardinals
Tampa had a 17 point lead and then all of a sudden were down 35-31. But then Derek Anderson came to the rescue throwing a pick in the red zone when all the Cardinals needed was a field goal to tie. Bucs hang on for a 38-35 win.

Week 9 Recap
NCAA: 3-2-1 +1.24 Units
NFL: 4-1 +3.75 Units

Season-to-Date:
NCAA: 37-29-2 +7.61 Units
NFL: 18-9-1 +7.23 Units

Everything YTD
+16.22 Units
9.26% ROI

Week 6 & 7 Recap; Schoolyard & Illini

2010-10-17T22:24:00.002-05:00

A good Week 6 and a lackluster Week 7. Here we go...

Week 6 NCAA

UCLA +8 at California
I thought UCLA had been playing well and Cal maybe wasn't as good as people thought. Unfortunately, I was wrong. Cal wins 35-7.

Michigan State +4.5 at Michigan
I've been a big Michigan ever since their defense got exposed for the joke that it is against Indiana. Michigan State is legit and actually plays defense. Final score: MSU 34-17.

Michigan State at Michigan Under 65 (-105)
Same reasoning as above.

Minnesota +22.5 at Wisconsin
This is a lot of points to cover and Wisconsin generally doesn't blow teams out, even if they are as bad as Minnesota. A last minute score by Minnesota leads to the win. Wisconsin 41, Minnesota 23.

Indiana +24.5 (-105) at Ohio State
Again, a lot of points to cover but Indiana couldn't do it. Ohio State 38, Indiana 10.

Oregon State at Arizona Over 51 (-105)
This just seemed like too few points for these two teams. This one came down to the wire however, with Oregon State pulling out a close victory and the over hits with their 29-27 win.

Temple +3.5 (-105) at Northern Illinois
Temple has looked pretty solid this year. Northern has as well but I thought Temple had the edge in this one. Wrong again. NIU with the easy 31-17 win.

NCAA Season to Date: 24-20

NFL

Only three NFL plays last week but they worked out well.

Bears +2.5 (+105) at Panthers
If you like offense, you hated this. Very ugly game but the Bears win easily 24-6.

Rams at Lions Over 43.5 (-108)
I didn't really expect this outcome, but the over got there nonetheless. Lions 44-6.

Titans +7 (-107) at Cowboys
Cowboys very overrated. Titans are solid. Titans with the win 34-27.

NFL Season to Date: 11-2.

Week 7
This was my worst week of the season. I'm not planning on playing the Monday night game so I'll just get the recap done with now.

NCAA

Air Force -1 (+100) at San Diego State
SDSU coming off a loss to pathetic BYU and Air Force has looked really solid most of the year. It took me a while to bet this one but I finally did, unfortunately. SDSU pulls out a close 27-25 win.

Iowa -3.5 (-105) at Michigan
Continuing on the hating Michigan train (and perhaps clouded thinking since I have Iowa +550 to win the Big Ten), this one looked like a good bet from the get-go. Iowa wins it 38-28.

UNLV at Colorado State Over 51 (-105)
I have a saying...Great defense beats great offense, but horrible offense beats horrible defense. Both of these teams are what we like to call "horrible." Each 1-5 going into the game. Colorado State took a 34-10 lead into halftime so I figured this one was all locked up. However, I had to sweat it the rest of the way and it wasn't until a field goal with a few minutes to go in the game sealed the deal. CSU 43, UNLV 10.

Ohio State -3.5 (-102) at Wisconsin
I didn't particularly love this bet but this was the best line I found anywhere. Plus the line had moved from -6 earlier in the week. Wisconsin with the win 31-18.

NFL

Only three NFL plays today. Two losers and a push.

Chargers at Rams Over 44.5 (-101)
Glad this one wasn't televised in my area. Rams 20, Chargers 17.

Raiders at 49ers Over 41 (+102)
See reasoning for UNLV at Colorado State. However, this one was never even close. I'm also glad I didn't get to watch this one. 49ers 17-9.

Raiders +8 (-108) at 49ers.
I didn't really think Oakland would win, but eight points is a lot in the NFL. This one pushed.

Stats:

NCAA
Week: 2-2 -0.19 Units
Season: 26-22 +2.78 Units

NFL
Week: 0-2-1 -2.83 Units
Season: 11-4-1 +6.47 Units

Sides Season to Date: 21-17-1 +2.35 Units
Totals Season to Date: 16-7 +9.00 Units

Everything YTD:
+10.28 Units
7.63% ROI

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The Schoolyard is my favorite Illini bar in Chicago. It's located in Lakeview on Southport Ave. However, living in River North I don't get up there very often anymore but I was in the area on Saturday night and had a good laugh at a banner outside the bar. I forget the exact wording, but it was something like this:

"Your Home for Fighting Illini Football: The 1999 micronpc.com Bowl Champions"

With Illinois football being down for most of the last ten years, it's easy to poke fun, and I do think it's quite funny. However, winning that bowl was not the most recent "win" we've had. In 2001 we did win the Big Ten title. But yeah, outside of that and the fluke Rose Bowl appearance in 2007....not a lot to cheer about.

However, I have to say I am impressed with the team this year. Even though they're 3-3, they've been competitive in each game and I do expect them to reach some type of bowl game this season. That will be quite the accomplishment considering I was expecting a 3-9 year - which technically could still happen - after all, this is Illini football.

Week 5 Recap

2010-10-07T20:34:00.002-05:00

Kind of another wishy-washy week, but still positive. I've had a pretty good run and am due for a pullback here soon.

NCAA

Wisconsin at Michigan State +2.5 (+100)for 1.2U
I'm not sold on Wisconsin being that great of a team and kind of see both of these schools with the same talent level. With MSU at home and getting points, I thought it was a good bet. It was. MSU 34-24.

Virginia Tech at N.C. State +165 for .66U
NC State has been playing really well and Virginia Tech has had its missteps this season. This one was looking good for most of the game, but NC State folded at the end and Va Tech took home a 41-30 win.

Michigan -10 (+101) at Indiana for 1.2U
This one opened at Michigan -14 and I figured Michigan's offensive firepower would be able to compensate for their horrendous defense. Nope. Michigan gets the win, but not by enough: 42-35.

Duke at Maryland Under 62 (+104) for 1.2U
This just seemed like way too many points for these two teams. I feel like Duke is still getting credit for their game against Wake that ended 54-48 a few weeks ago. This one was never in doubt. Maryland 21-16.

Arizona State at Oregon State Over 54 (+106) for 1.2U
Both of these teams can put points on the scoreboard and it just seemed like a low total for these schools. I barely covered, with a 31-28 Oregon State win.

Florida at Alabama -9 for 1.1U
I bet this one as soon as it came out. I am so impressed with Alabama and just think they are in a league of their own (of course, they'll probably lose this week after I wrote that). I thought this one was a no-brainer and bet it instantly. I'm not sure why anyone thought Florida was good all of a sudden, after a good second half at home against S. Florida and a solid offensive performance against Kentucky. Of course, the line moved against me, all the way down to 7.5 before closing at 8. However, my intuitions were right. This was a rout from the get-go. Alabama 31, Florida 6.

Penn State at Iowa Over 40.5 (+109) for 1.2U
Silly me, thinking Penn State's pathetic offense could score a touchdown or two. This one was never in doubt either. Iowa 24, Penn State 3

Stanford at Oregon Under 65.5 (-105) for 1.2U
Everyone was billing this as the shootout of the year, so naturally, I faded the world and took the under, thinking that someone's defense would step up to the challenge. Well, there was no defense played anywhere. However, what really pissed me off wasn't losing the bet. It was getting the Washington-USC game instead. What the hell is that? Give us the good matchup, ESPN. Oregon 52, Stanford 31.

NFL

Texans at Raiders Over 43 (-106) for 1.2U
This was my only NFL play this week. Both the Texans and the Raiders have been putting points on the scoreboard while also letting other teams score. I thought this was a little low and was right. Texans 31, Raiders 24.

For the Week:
NCAA: 4-4 +0.31 Units
NFL: 1-0 +1.13 Units

For the Season:
NCAA: 20-17 +2.50 Units
NFL: 8-2 +5.81 Units
Sides: 16-12 +2.93 Units
Totals: 12-5 +7.01 Units

Everything YTD
+8.87 Units
7.88% ROI

Week 4 Recap, Struggling on PokerStars

2010-09-29T19:32:00.002-05:00

All right, here's my Week 4 sports betting recap. I made 17 bets across NCAA and NFL. Betting totals went pretty well. Betting sides...not so much. Here we go:

NCAA
Central Michigan at Northwestern -6.5 (-105)
I'm pretty sure this was the best price you could get on Northwestern. I felt like NU wasn't getting enough credit coming into this one. The bet was looking great until about 35 seconds left in the game when Central Michigan scored a TD to cover. Northwestern 30, C. Michigan 25

UAB at Tennessee -13.5 (-106)
Apparently Tennessee sucks a lot more than I thought they did. It took them OT to pull this one out. Tennessee 32, UAB 29

Temple at Penn State Over 43 (+100)
This is just a really low total for a college game - and with good reason. I start off the week 0-3 as Penn State wins it 22-13.

UCLA at Texas Over 42 (-108)
Texas' offense looked absolutely pitiful and I was about to chalk up loss #4 until a flurry of scoring in the 4th quarter put it over. If you had told me Texas would score 12 points in this game I wouldn't have even asked how much UCLA scored. I would've just handed over the cash. Luckily, I didn't do that. UCLA with the big upset on 15.5 point favorite Texas, 34-12.

Stanford at Notre Dame -4.5 (-104)
This one was at 3.5 at the beginning of the week so I didn't get the best price but I wasn't sold on Notre Dame and Stanford is pretty solid. This was never in doubt as Stanford cruised to a 34-17 victory

Stanford at Notre Dame Under 59.5 (+100)
I think the highest this got was 60. This just seemed like a lot of points for a game at Notre Dame. Stanford's defense is very good so I wasn't expecting a high octane affair. This was looking like a walk in the park as the score was 19-6 for the longest time, but I had a minor sweat at the end with the teams trading touchdowns. 34-17 kept it under.

Wake Forest at Florida State Under 63
The best price I saw on this was 64, but by game-time it had come down all the way to 61. Wake Forest put up 54 on Duke, but Florida State isn't exactly Duke. With a 10-0 score at halftime this was never in doubt. Florida State wins 31-0.

Nevada at BYU +5 (+103)
I saw that I was able to get BYU at +5 where everywhere else they were 4 or 4.5 so I just took it. As soon as I did it I kind of regretted it - and with good reason. Betting against Nevada hasn't worked so well the last two weeks and the cruised to a 27-13 win.

Fresno State +2 (+103) at Mississippi
This was kind of a tilt bet to make up for the last one. And not surprisingly, I lost - by a lot. Mississippi 55, Fresno State 38. Serves me right.

Oregon State at Boise State Over 56 (-103)
Boise State scores a lot of points. Boise State HAS to score a lot of points every game to stay near the top of the BCS. There was no way they would call off the dogs if they got ahead by a lot, and would have no problem running it up if they could. That said, Oregon State is no joke team either so I was expecting a very high scoring game. This one went over pretty early in the 4th or maybe late in the 3rd, but there wasn't much scoring afterward. Boise State 37, Oregon State 24.

Baylor -3 (-112) 2ndHalf at Rice
Rice sucks. But this was a stupid bet considering I wasn't even watching the game and Baylor already had a comfortable lead. Each scored 10 in the 2nd half for the loss.

Oregon at Arizona State Over 55.5 (+100)
Oregon likes scoring. Thankfully Arizona State liked scoring too. Oregon 42, Arizona State 31.

Oregon at Arizona State -11.5 (-103)
I was trying so hard to get Oregon -10.5 and when the line started moving up I made a last minute bet on this one, figuring I was getting a great spot since Oregon was already -13 at many other books. Unfortunately, that extra point was really necessary this time as Oregon won by 11.

NFL
Browns at Ravens -11 (-113)
Maybe the Browns aren't horrendous or maybe the Ravens didn't give it 100%. Whatever the case, the Ravens won 24-17, so I lost.

Chargers at Seahawks Over 43.5 (-105)
With a 10-0 halftime score this was looking pretty bad. But then there was Leon Washington. Thank you thank you Leon Washington. His two kickoff returns for touchdowns - the second throwing the game over - were the only reason I had any chance in this one. Seahawks won a pretty sloppy, but interesting game, 27-20.

Raiders at Cardinals Over 39.5 (+106)
Two crappy teams with two crappy defenses. This one was almost won at halftime. Cardinals take it 24-23.

Jets +2.5 (+103) at Dolphins
I liked the Jets here because they were dealing with a lot of adversity this week, and I feel like good teams generally step up to the occasion in these situations. I believe this one opened at pick'em or maybe even Jets -1. Jets take it 31-23.

For the week...
NCAA: 6-7 -1.29 Units
NFL: 3-1 +1.96 Units
Total: 9-8 +0.67 Units

Season to Date:
22-16
+6.88 Units

----------------------

I haven't done a poker post in a while so I thought I'd give a quick update. Due to trading during the day, it's been very difficult to put in significant volume. Since June 1, I've played 41,312 hands. To put this in perspective, I used to play that many hands in a single month. Some guys play that many hands in a week. This month I've played just over 7,000 hands. Despite rarely playing, I've done pretty well when I have been playing. Last month was my second best of the year and before last night, September was on pace to be my best month of the year.

Last night was one of those nights where absolutely nothing went right whatsoever. The action was brutally slow and what action I was able to get was just an exercise in futility - especially on PokerStars. For the first time in months I felt myself losing control while playing and ended up quitting down a decent chunk of change - my worst loss in a couple months. Now, I usually hit the desk or make frustrated comments when bad things happen at the table, but I'm always in control of my game. These are just ways to let negative energy out. And believe me, it's much better to do this than release your bad energy by pressing the "all-in" button on the next hand.

I'm not saying the players are better on Stars than they are on Full Tilt, nor am I suggesting there is anything unseemly going on. I'm 99.9% sure there is not. PokerStars is generally considered the creme de la creme of online poker. It really hurts me to say this, but I think my problem on Stars is that the games move too fast for me. Full Tilt's games move swiftly, but steadily. For me, that's the perfect speed. PokerStars is just balls to the wall ultra-fast. At 27, I'm a senior citizen in online poker years and most guys prefer the turbo charged pace of the Stars heads up tables, which is why all the tables are like this. I just think it would be nice if they offered both fast and regular speed heads up tables for the geezers like me.

Oh well. Maybe someday. In the meantime, I have some money I need to make back.

Week 2 & Week 3 Recap

2010-09-19T21:13:00.002-05:00

Week Two went a little bit better than Week One. I only got two bets down this week because I didn't really spend a lot of time watching the lines due to being out of town over the weekend.

Week 2:

Thurs. Sep 9
Vikings at Saints -4.5 (-103) for 1U
Here is a prime example of the value of line shopping. The Saints were -5 or -5.5 everywhere else. I even saw Saints -6 on one site. Final score: Saints 14, Vikings 9.

Sat Sep 11
Duke at Wake Forest -4.5 (-115) for 1.9U and Duke at Wake -3 (+105) 2nd Half for 1U
With the double bet, I liked this game the most but was just an ugly game all around. The O/U was something like 50 and it was 35-35 at halftime. Betting that would've saved me the pain of watching the entirety of this defensive debacle. Wake ended up winning 54-48 so I won both bets.

Georgia Tech -13.5 (-102) at Kansas for 1U
I was way off on this one. Kansas is the winner 28-25

Georgia Tech at Kansas Under 51 for 1U
A little closer here. A late touchdown by GaTech throws it over.

Michigan +4 (-115) at Notre Dame for 1U
Denard Robinson is a machine. I still wasn't sold on ND but these teams typically play a close game and I just thought Michigan was the better of the two. UMich wins 28-24.

San Jose State +40 (+100) at Wisconsin for 1U
This just seemed like way too many points and Wisconsin isn't a team that will just blow you out of the water. This game was never in doubt. Wisconsin 27-17 winner.

Penn State at Alabama -12 (-105) for 1U
If I had bet this earlier I would've been able to get -11.5. I just thought Alabama had way too much firepower even with Ingram out. Bama 24-3.

Sun Sep 12
Lions +7.5 (-135) at Bears for 1U
I just didn't think the Bears could win by a lot due to their less than stellar preseason performance. They ended up getting bailed out at the end of the game and held on for a 19-14 win.

Raiders at Titans -6 for 1U
This was my favorite NFL line out there. Chris Johnson ended up running wild and the Titans won 38-13.

Bengals at Patriots Over 44.5 for 1U
I'm not a huge fan of either team's defense. Patriots 38-24.

Colts -1 (+104) at Texans
The Colts never seem to lose their first game of the season and they never seem to lose to Houston. Well, they lost this one 34-24.

Sat Sep 18
California -2.5 (-105) at Nevada for 1U
Not even close on this one. Nevada 52-31.

Iowa State at Kansas State -3.5 (-103) for 1U
I really liked this one and I think the line ended up moving out to K-State -5.5 (*not totally sure on that, however). K-State wins 27-20.

Week 2 & 3 Results:
Overall: 11-4 +6.22 Units
NCAAF: 7-3 +3.50 Units
NFL: 4-1 +3.67 Units

Football Season to date:
Overall: +6.25 Units

YTD Everything: +5.3 Units

More bets this week...

We sure do love movies...apparently

2010-09-12T20:14:00.002-05:00

This is a two year chart of Netflix (NFLX). With a PE Ratio of 59, this seems awfully reasonable....right.

Week One Recap

2010-09-07T17:48:00.002-05:00

We're off to a so-so start in sports betting this fall. In week one of college football, I bet on six games, finishing with a 3-3 record. Here are the games I bet:

1. Illinois vs Missouri (in St Louis) Under 54.5 (-106) for 1 Unit
- I counted on an anemic Illinois offense led by a redshirt freshman QB, and hoped that Illinois' defense wouldn't give up too many points. I got the anemic offense in the second half, and got a ball controlling, rarely scoring offense in the first half. The outcome of this one was never in doubt as Missouri won 23-13 and the Under was easily covered. As a sidenote, the spread opened at Missouri -10, moved all the way out to -14, before coming back to -12.

2. Cincinnati +129 at Fresno State for 0.8 Units
- I just thought there was value here and figured the game was priced incorrectly. I was wrong. Final score: Fresno State 28, Cincinnati 14.

3. Elon at Duke -7 (-110) for 1 Unit
- I know we're talking about Duke football here, but we're also talking about Elon football. This one just seemed a little too close. Duke 41, Elon 27.

4. Northwestern -3 (-110) at Vanderbilt for 1 Unit
- Here is a classic example of how important it is to get the best line possible. When this line opened, Northwestern was a 1.5 point favorite. Over the next couple weeks the line moved all the way out to N'Western -4.5, before coming back to -3 on Friday night. Northwestern 23, Vanderbilt 21. Gotta be quicker with the trigger finger.

5. Wisconsin at UNLV Under 56.5 for 1 Unit
- This was actually the game I liked the most, and right after I bet it, the O/U moved down to 54.5. However, Wisconsin brought an offensive onslaught, including 24 unanswered points in the 3rd quarter. UNLV added a meaningless TD in the 4th to push it over. Wisconsin 41, UNLV 21. Another sidenote, the line for this one was Wisconsin -20.

6. Boise State +1.5 (+102) vs Virginia Tech (in Washington DC) for 1 Unit
- I was really on the fence for betting this one. The line opened at Boise State -3 and Boise was still a 1.5 pt favorite going into Monday. Lots of money came in on Va Tech late pushing Boise to underdog status. I still really liked Boise State's chances, but I had one final reason to bet...what I perceived to be the book's accuracy in the opening lines for week one. I went ahead and bet Boise State. Final score: Boise State 33, Virginia Tech 30.

Week 1: 3-3 +0.04 Units
NCAA Football to date: 3-3 +0.04 Units
All Sports YTD: -0.91 Units (although this includes paying for three unsettled futures bets: Twins over 83.5 wins, Cardinals over 87.5 wins, Iowa to win the Big Ten title in football +550)

Can I beat the Sportsbook?

2010-09-03T18:38:00.002-05:00

We'll find out!

I've decided to take sports betting a little more seriously as we head into football season. I'm still going to bet small size, but I've opened a few more accounts to see what I can actually do. This is more for me to see if I can actually create a profitable enterprise than a means to make some actual money. I'll post updates at the end of each week.

Gogogogogogo

I've finally caved...

2010-08-11T22:07:00.002-05:00

...and set up a Twitter account. I'm MuckedNuts. So, if you want to know what I ate for lunch today, you know where to go! I'll still keep the blog and I will update it again eventually. I just haven't really been in the mood to write about anything recently. I'm going to New York again next weekend so maybe I'll have some good stories about that, or perhaps the Wisconsin State Fair this weekend! Mullets and wife-beaters galore..

Why oh why

2010-06-26T00:34:00.002-05:00

PokerStars.com is now closed to all French players.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Support? What support?

2010-05-20T22:24:00.003-05:00

Absolutely no bounce at the 200-day moving average for the S&P today. Look out below.

Chelsea takes it

2010-05-09T21:12:00.002-05:00

My boys, Chelsea FC, are the English Premier League Champions! With Alex anchoring the D, and an offensive onslaught of the highest proportions, Chelsea defeated Wigan Athletic by a final tally of 8-0.

Watching the game brought back childhood memories of living off Old Brompton Rd in South Kensington. It's about time to return...perhaps next season.

Update, More stories

2010-04-28T21:16:00.003-05:00

Long time no write. I haven't really even been that busy, just haven't gotten around to updating. Anyway, here are some highlights over the past month...

1. Miami
I spent a weekend in Miami Beach with my girlfriend at the beginning of April. This was an absolute perfect time to go because it was after spring break and there were no big events going on. We didn't really have to wait for anything, the beach wasn't super crowded and the weather was perfect - 82 degrees and sunny all weekend. I highly recommend Miami as a weekend getaway. Stay near the beach (our hotel was at 8th and Collins, approx 3 minute walk), try the sushi at Toni's (very good and reasonably priced), and for drinking...well, you're going to pay a lot wherever you go. The Delano is a really nice spot...for $14 gin and tonics.

2. Blackhawks

On Saturday, I attended my first Blackhawks game in about 14 years. And what a game to see. Not only did the Hawks have a miracle comeback, but I got to watch the game from the luxury of a skybox. Taking full advantage of all the free goodies, I had three lunches (one before the game and between each period) and plenty of Bud Heavy in plastic cups. What more can you ask for?

Anyway, I'm not going to pretend I know a lot about hockey, but it's very exciting to watch and the skill level involved at the professional level is just mind-boggling. But maybe that's partly due to the fact that I can't even ice skate, let alone play hockey on ice.

Next step...gotta find tickets for round 2.

3. Poker

Poker has been going fairly well this month. I played a lot the first ten days or so but I've tailed off of late, being busy with other stuff and just not being in the mood. Hopefully I'll be able to crank out some more hands the last few days this week and really end the month on a high note.

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Now, time for Round 3 of Degenerate Gambling Stories

Story #1 comes from a guy named "justincredible"

spring break last year, a few of us head to vegas, mostly to party and try to hook up with slutty chicks. im the only one who wants to spend more than an hour gambling. first night my buddies all go clubbing, i go play poker at one of the smaller gimmicky casinos. i think it was at a pirate one or some european themed one. im already sauced up on coke and rums.

i was running hot and flopping the nuts every hand. i cash out 3k after buying in for $400. i think it was a 1/2 table, kinda fuzzy cuz i was plastered. i wander down the strip trying to find my friends and end up at a bar sitting next to a pornstar i beat off to multiple times. the dvd i had of her was a little old i guess or the constant **** and coke were aging her cuz she look kinda worn but whatevah. we start chatting and she starts rubbing my **** and telling me all the nasty **** she wants to show me. we get to her room, and its like a swtich goes off and she's all business now. she names a price. 1k. i whip out my roll of 100's i just won at the tables and cut out 1k. we start doing the deed and i nut in about 2.5 minutes. i ask her if thats all i get, and she says she'll take a shower with me. only she says she wants to call her girlfriend to come over cuz im too much stud for her to handle by herself, and to start the shower without her. i get in the shower, after a couple minutes i hear her walk out and figure she went to meet her friend. i wait in the shower for about 45 minutes before my skin starts to wrinkle up so i just had back into the bedroom. i turn on the tv and try to find a porn with her in it so i can set the ambiance of this awesome threesome im about to have. after an hour or so i pass out.

i wake up the next morning and check my pants pockets, my 3k is gone. i feel something inside me rip away and i get this empty feeling inside. a combination of getting ripped off and losing 3k, but im determined to make it back so i head back to the same casino to play more poker, still in the same clothes, but extra extra clean from my shower. i turn my cell off cuz my friends keep calling me. my stack is like a yo yo for about 36 hours, never rising above 5-$600 and i've busted and rebought about 4-5 times. im in for about 2k at a 1/2 table, not alot for some of you, but my entire funds for the vacation and then some. i bust out eventually and have no money to do anything. my friends have to spot me for food, but im too depressed to even go out so i end up just getting drunk in my room for the couple nights before we finally go back home. the sad thing is this trip out of the 4 times ive been has been the best ever.

Story #2 is by "needsFH2win" - not really anything to do with gambling, but still funny.

My friends and I went to an amusement park last week. I visited the arcade section and found a Toy-grabbing-claw game. I proceeded to feed the machine over $300 in 2 hour period. There were little kids who wanted to play but never got to play because I was hogging the machine. The thrill of the claw grabbing onto toys and excitement of picking up the toys were sicker than betting table max and staying on hard 13 against the dealers 7 in blackjack. The amusement park closed and there were a couple of employees who were "cleaning" around the machine (I was told that people complaint because no one else got to use the machine) to keep an eye on me. When I was out of tokens, I pulled out a wad of $100s and one of the employees immediately came up to me and asked what kind of toys I wanted out of the cage. I told him that I didn't want any but I just wanted to play. He took out 4 toys from the cage and asked me to leave.

Story #3 is brought to you by "TitaniumNutz." This is one of my personal favorites, and I hope all the details are true, but I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't. Regardless....enjoy:

Looking back on my gambling adventures, I've been gambling so long it's hard to narrow down one bad beat that tops them all. This story involves in sports betting.

I've had MLB “Overs” before where I've gotten 9 runs in the first 2.5 innings when having a hefty bet on over 9.5 to lose... Hell I had under 20.5 in the last MNF game and was scoreless in the 4th to lose with 4 mins to go in the 4th, not a bad beat but not something that "should happen”.

The worst case for me comes after the best gambling month in my life. Started out with $1000 in my pinnaclesports.com account in July 2006. Went to see the Reds play someone (Rangers I think) in Cincinnati. Bet the entire 1k on the Reds over. Hit that and bet the next day 2k on the Reds over...hit that. Bet the next 2 to 3 weeks on nothing but MLB “Overs” and that month had more “Over” in any month's time frame than I can ever remember. Built my account to about 22k. I found a game in late July where Pedro Martinez was coming back off a bad injury for the Mets. Playing the Braves in Atlanta and I can't remember who was going for the Braves. Pinnacle had an option where you could "sell" .5 to 1 full run for better odds. Over was 8.5 -122 or so and I sold the run up to 9.5 and got +113. Put a total of $14k and some change on it and it was 4-4 in the top of the 3rd inning. Became 5-4 in the 4th and BARELY squeaked over in the top of the 7th on a solo shot by I believe it was David Wright top make it 6-4 where it ended. Was a stressful Friday night but I sure did celebrate after that. I ended up winning a few more “smaller” bets before withdrawing my entire account which was over 48K. I slowly started depositing 1K here and 1K there and betting anything from a 1K straight bet to a 1K 3 and sometimes 4 team parlay. I hit a few of those but as you can imagine I lost a lot more than I hit and it didn't take but 1.5 months to lose everything I had won. The final straw was in October of 2006 I deposited 1K into my account and bet a 4 team parlay consisting of NCAA football on 11AM Central Saturday morning games. I hit and had about 13 K in my account. I went all in on a 230PM game and hit, then bet 10k on a later game and hit. I had 34k or so in my account after that nice streak. I decide to "save" my money for NFL the next day and went out that night with some friends. We went to a bar and I noticed Hawaii was playing a 11pm game. Being the degenerate that I am, there is no way I am not betting BIG on a late night Hawaii game. I bet my entire account on the Hawaii/Nevada OVER 75.5 +106 (real line was 74.5 but I "sold" a point to get "plus money") because I had such a "high" from the run of luck I had all day long and thought for sure I couldn't lost this game. 1st quarter was low, but both teams were passing the ball like crazy and putting points up like it was going out of style. I'm at a bar watching the gamecast on my laptop as I see the plays being updated every 45 seconds or so. 10-7 first quarter, not the best but not bad.

We decided to step out and go watch the game at my friend’s house. At halftime I call in my local sports radio station to find out the score was 31-21 Hawaii. EUPHORIA! You know how they say, they best thing about the best drug in the world is the moments before you take it. That phone call gave me the biggest high of all highs. The walk to the exit, the planning of what we're doing, the drive to his place, the moments between walking in the house and turning on the TV. Ok all I need is 24 points...1 FG and 3 TD's... surely these two teams can get that. They pass all the time...when they don't complete it the clock stops preserving precious time that I need to hit the biggest bet I've ever placed before. I feel like there's no way I will lose this bet, the two teams combined are passing the ball at a 70%+ clip and every completion stops the clock for a first down it seems and every incompletion stops it as well.

3rd quarter Hawaii was the only team to contribute to my over scoring a trizzle...3 points is all I got. All that high pretty much shut until the clock on the 3rd quarter read 0:00 and the number of points scored in the ****** quarter was "-4". Oh well I needed 3 in there somewhere and now I just need 3 TD's in the 4th.

I go back to the bar and immediately as I walk in, with 11:45 to go Hawaii scores a TD and goes up 41-21...now I'm scared, I need Nevada to get 2 TD's because I know with this little time left Hawaii will run clock with this lead. Well it didn't take long at the 9:08 mark Nevada scores a TD making it 41-28...hell a 13 point game with 9+ mins to go in this kinda game I would say I'm back in the driver's seat again. 7 more points and I WIN!!!!. Hawaii does nothing on their next possession but Nevada gets the punt and starts to drive the ball with 6 mins to go. Hawaii is up 13 and I'm watching the game as if my whole life depended on the outcome (it kinda did, I was 22). There is a crowd now. Nevada completes pass after pass but the clock is quickly getting smaller and smaller. Everytime they get a first down, I high five someone. Everytime there is an out-of-bounds, I high five someone. I'm assuming Hawaii is playing prevent D knowing even if they allow a TD they still have the lead with little time remaining. Well at the 3:57 mark it happens... NEVADA SCORES TD!!!! I'm jumping up and down in the bar, I bought a round of shots for the group next to me.. I smoked a cigar and had the greatest feeling I've ever had in my life... THE GREATEST FEELING, HIGH, EMOTION I'VE EVER FELT...but wait, I am at 75 and need 76 to win, no fear I just need the PAT, and ofcourse,

4th Quarter
11:45 Hawaii: TD, C Brennan 6 YD RUN (D Kelly KICK)
9:08 Nevada: TD, A Pudewell 13 YD PASS FROM T Moore (B Jaekle KICK)
3:57 Nevada: TD, A Pudewell 5 YD PASS FROM T Moore (PAT FAILED)

You know the rest of the story, Hawaii runs the clock out, however they did end the game with a 4th a Goal from the Nevada 1 yard line.. had 1st and Goal from the 3 and ended the game on the 1 taking a knee. Yes I would say based on the circumstances at that time in my life that was the single worst bad beat I have ever had. To top it off of course the game hit 75 which went over 74.5 but under my 75.5 because I had to get the ML at plus money.

And now for a story of my own. This is an epic gambling fail on my part. To this day I'm not sure what I was thinking. Anyway, this takes place a few years ago when I was living in Lincoln Park with my friends Andrew and Dan. Andrew was having some computer issues or something and his older brother Tony was coming over to fix it. Now, just as a quick background, Andrew never had his brother over in the 2 years we lived together, and barely even talked about him. That's not to say he doesn't like his brother or anything, but he never really came up in conversation or paid any visits.

So, Andrew says Tony and his wife are about to stop by. Now, I was pretty sure he was BS-ing me because I figured there was no way his brother could've been married, plus, even if he had been married, it would've been in the last couple years and Andrew would've likely mentioned going to the wedding at some point.

I say there's no way Tony is married, and if he's married what's his wife's name? After too long of a pause, he says, "Chelsea." I say he's full of it and responds with "yeah, how much you want to bet?"

So, in order to scare him a bit and call his bluff I have to come up with a moderately sized number, but not too big in the very off-chance I'm wrong. "How about $100?"

"Sold."

Now I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy. How could Tony possibly be married? Is this for real? Sure enough, Tony and a woman come into the apartment. The woman is wearing a wedding ring and Tony has his band on. Ouch.

I quickly called a bunch of our close mutual friends to see if they knew Tony was married. No one thought he was or even knew he had a girlfriend. Nope, apparently they had some super-secret wedding at the courthouse no one was invited to.

Moral of the story - don't bet people on whether or not their immediate family members are married or not.

Adventures in River North, Poker, Degenerate Gambling Stories

2010-03-08T19:44:00.007-06:00

Living in River North is a much different experience than other places in the city, like Lincoln Park and Wrigleyville. People live in high-rises instead of three-flats, everything is closer together, there is unlimited action and excitement, and perhaps best of all - I'm one of the younger people in the typical River North / Gold Coast bar. That's right. I feel like an old creep at John Barleycorn in Wrigleyville.

However, with the increased excitement comes increased traffic and a higher number of beggars than you would usually find up north. My policy is to not give money to beggars because if I give money to one, I have to give money to all. Kind of like with the beggars on Full Tilt (and believe me, they are more prevalent than you think).

Anyway, on Friday night I was walking up State St. near Erie St. when a haggardly looking woman approached me asking for 80 cents so she could take the bus. This is an interesting number because the bus costs $2, but maybe she had already collected $1.20. Who knows. I'm not sure what got into me, but I was in a giving mood so I dug through my pockets. While I was doing this she just walked alongside me with her hand held out, not even looking at me, but instead with a disgusted look on her face as if it were taking me too long to get her the money. Naturally, this really disturbed me so we had the following exchange...

Me: You don't look very happy about this
Ungrateful Begging Bitch: (sighs and rolls eyes)
Me: Ok, I can give you a quarter...
Ungrateful Begging Bitch: F*CK you, man! (storms off)

This response really surprised me because beggars are usually very thankful when you help out, or try to help out. In addition to ignoring beggars, I suppose another way you can avoid giving them money is to just piss them off by taking too long to find your change.

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Poker is starting to go a little better and Saturday morning I had my best session of 2010, and the weekend as a whole went quite well too. It was long overdue. This month is off to a very productive start so hopefully I can keep it going. Although, knowing my luck of late, I probably just jinxed myself with this post.

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More often than not, in the afternoons the market is very slow so there is a lot of time that gets killed surfing the internet. Today, I spent a good four hours reading the 2+2 Poker Forums (yeah, I know - huge dork) and stumbled upon a classic thread with people sharing their degenerate gambling stories. I enjoyed these so much I thought it might be fun to share them on here every week or so, as well as include some stories of my own. My stories are not nearly as spectacular as these (yet), so many of my own personal stories will be just general gambling fails. Also, feel free to send me your own stories. All names will be changed to protect the innocent.

All right, so here is the inaugural edition of Degenerate Gambling Stories...

Story #1 comes from an Aussie poster named "D3v0id"

A mate and I got totally wiped ages back and decided we were gunna crash the Mahogany room at Crown. I'm not a member because I'm degen and my bankroll couldn't buy me a poptart much less let me lay down smackers at Mahogany stakes.

So we go to sneak in using one of our other mates membership (who was overseas and more or less gives us his blessing cos we were pretty sure when he texted 'fk u I'll kill you if I get banned' he was only joking). We didn't realize we needed his card to get in, so we stumbled back to the cab line, went all the way back to my mates joint, got the card and went to the cassius again (degen, should have just gone to the strippers).

The second time they wouldn't let us in when some uppity fkr wouldn't let us through because a) we were crap in our pants drunk and b) my mate had to say he had left his ID at home when asked (because obv he couldn't show his real ID).

So we starting hitting up this old bag who was coming in and had heard us talking to the door man and she actually wound up vouching for us, which was cool because it meant we got in and if she was only about a mirrion years younger you'da bagged her but she wasn't so we said later and hit the bar.

So we get in to the Mahogany room and it's exciting for about two minutes. I chug a half dozen bourbons and realize that there's only two hot chiks in the whole room, and one of them it draped over some bloke that looks like he cooked last nights curry but he has a wrist watch as big as my head and a suit that looks like it's worth a month of paydays. Most of the other women are either over 40 or as attractive as a 12 y/o schoolboy.

I go talk to the other hot chik and realize I can't stop slurring so I figure fug this chit I'm gunna go watch some chucks loosing their manies on the tables. My mate brings me some ass wipe cocktail so I feel like a total muppet standing there with something that looks like three day old urine in a martini glass. GTFO.

I'm watching some folk playing BJ which gets me about as excited as paper cut to my left nut sack and I'm wishing something interesting would happen and am thinking I'd be better off in jeans and a t-shirt and a pot of beer in my hand with the common man degens downstairs.

Finally I stumble on a table where this Japanese bloke and his pug faced wife are playing. This guy's burning a couple of K per hand and playing two seats, which I know isn't really that high but I'm a degen with a three figure bankroll so for me it was kinda exciting. I decided to lean on the end of the table partly because I wanted to watch but mainly because I was gunna fall over if I didn't.

So I watch this bloke drop maybe 5o or 6o grand in about ten minutes. This guy is losing big time and shows absolutely no emotion no matter how many times he sees his 21 pushed or his 20 overtaken. The dealer can't seem to bust and his stupid wife keeps moaning hawwwwwwwww, eeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaar, and chit in annoyance when her lesser $200 bet gets swiped and she seems totally oblivious to the fact that her fella is getting systematically raped by the dealer.

After watching this dude blow off more than my yearly salary I finally can't stand it anymore and go totally degen, point at his chips and say

'Throw me one of those so at least one of us can walk out of here a winner'.

This bloke doesn't even flinch, stops his play...and flicks a 1k chip at me. BAM.

Beyond that one action he didn't acknowledge what I'd said. He didn't even look at me once.

I feel totally degen and am embarrassed and the dealer is watching me and the chip is sitting near the edge of the table. I go to say I was only joking but this guy and his wife have gone back to racking up another round, so I nab the chip, say thanks to you sir, and move away from the table.

Beat - I begged and am a degen.
Brag - I got a grand.
Variance - I lost it on poker n strippers.
Double Variance - I played poker and went to the strippers.

Story #2 Comes from a poster named "MrAmazing"

I was sharing a house with 3 friends.

1 of these friends was working on a saturday and wanted me to take his $1800 "TAG" watch to get a new battery, cuz he wanted for that night doing on a date.

He left for work at 7am and would be home before 5pm.

At 9am I took his watch to a local pawn shop and hawked it for $300.00

I took the $300 to local casino and won $900.00 in 1 hr.

Went back to pawn shop and got watch back for the $300.00 plus $70 juice.

Took the watch to get fixed at took back home.

Come 5pm friend comes home with a 12back of beers to share for the favor I did for him.

good day.

Story #3 comes from a poster named "KingNiche." I'm pretty sure this isn't true, but it's hilarious and I've edited it VERY lightly just to make it more readable (it would take me a month to fully edit the entire thing). There will be more from KingNiche in the weeks ahead...

one time i was sitting in my house on my own i had just split up with my gf who was a crack head but she was nice.. the room was dark i was surrounded by bottles of piss and half eaten sandwiches i even had a crust behind my ear i was quite sad because i was busto and heartbroken i thought maybe we would make it work and she would be my main squeese anyway she left me for a crack dealer.
so at this point im feelin like ten dewey heart aching empty busto feeling and linger tilt from stacking off with a flush draw because some crotch monkey over bets the pot and i run into the swinging blade and throw up 2 clanging bricks and I just punch my ****in monitor almost put my fist through it and then i kicked my coffee table but not like a regular person no no no..i have to hit it as hard as I can with my ****ing shin!!!! wtff was i thinking im not van damme or some **** that hurt so bad i collapsed in agony and started crying i just laid there whimpering in agony sobbing and eventually the pain eased off but i had blood running all the way down my leg..
i just laid there on the carpet for 2 hours staring into space i even knocked one out while laying in the recovery position i felt so lazy like a lazy slob and i smelt so rank like chinese food in a dumpster for days..
i eventually get up im wearing stripey boxers and half of them is up my ass ive got my ass cheek showing but i dont care i sit at my pc and watch some 200/400 on betfair wishing i was in the game..i kept sitting at a table hoping i would have cash in my account i actually prayed to mary magdagascar..i check my emails and boooom titan poker have put free money in my damn account!!!!!!!!!!!!!! woooooooooooooo..it felt like a blessing. Its like 5 dollars..so I go straight to max but in 5c/10c or some BS where u get nit on nits and I run that **** up to 20 in no time, then I but in at 25c/50c and I hit a big overset and and I make some decent bluffs I get my stack to 145..at this point im thinking ok just play this mother****ing cool dont be a degen waste of lung capacity but i say *** it i will take a shot at 2/4...

so I pick the easiest table luckily for me they are all easy and first hand I shove with the doyle brunson just for good luck everyone folds secnd hand i get AA..I shove I get 2 callers an I win and im oer 400 i say**** this and i go to 5/10 with a short stack what else am i suppose to do..i run this up to 3k pretty easily and step up to 10/20 and in 3 hours I have 13k..then it happened..I GET KING ****ING KING and some guy called han solo (TILTED) raises me to 30 dollars I re raise to 180 He raises to 550 I call planning to shove any flop… flop comes AAA ..he says to me in chat I HAVE IT and bets the pot im like wtf ..thats a reverse reversal bluff damn *** he must have it **** i cant fold i felt my heart speed up kind of like a panic attack how can i fold this my dad is in my ear saying DONT CALL he has the 4 of a kind im like no dad let me play my own damn hands why cant you go and play poker with otis redding always ****** interfering ..and i start arguing with him cant believe i have gone from 5 dollars to over a 20k pot in just hours..I call and he flips over QQ..I FIST PUMP LIKE IM JOHN MACKENROE SHOUTING NOW WHAT NOW WHAT DAD HE DIDNT SAY **** TURN QUEEN RIVER QUEEENNNNNNNNNNN>>OMFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
I WAS SO ****IN MAD I STARTED SPITTING up BLOOD FOAMING UP ...PUNCHED MY SELF in teh side of the head AND STARTED SHOUTING AT MY DAD INSIDE MY HEAD IM LIKE **** OFF LEAVE ME ALONE GET OUT OF My HEAD.. OMGG IM BUSTO AGAIN I FEEL LIKE A WORM WHO HAS HAS BIN SHOVELLED WHEN THE GROUND IS COLD OR MAyBE STUCK HIS HEAD IN A TURD..I FELT LIKE SUCH A ****INg DEGEN I COULD HAVE PLAYED 5/10 with 13k so easily and made decent rake and maybe found me some new pussy easily when i tell em im back to being a pro...first i burnt my hand on the stove on purpose omggg i was so wasted i went out in the backyard stark naked i started climbing the trees and just trying to get back to nature and forget the damn poker..loking back id lost my damn mind that pot had eloctrocuted my noodle..it started to rain and i looked so pathetic i couldnt even get a crack whore to stay with me and I had a big hemmaroid and my white pastey body stood out under the grey sky i must have looked like a sagging bag of milk...

..all i wanted to do was grind for 18 hours a day and fester in my own filth and live the life of a poker pro GRIND ON THE MIND till i die make my tomb a house of cards.. i wanted to give up so bad.. now i was busto and i couldnt see a break in the clouds or any hope the next day when i woke up i had to masturbate just so i could get out of bed
i browsed 2+2 and went back to bed for 3 days..I didnt even get up to go peepee i just pissed the bed because i was busto and nothing else mattered..i kept reminding myself that at least i wasnt the fat sloth puppet in that movie seven where he gets locked in a bat cave and is made to eat spaghetti till his guts spill open..but this didnt make me feel any better..

whats urine and the smell of a cheesy ritz cracker ass crack when you lost a 26k pot? i didnt give a **** about pissing on myself by that point..i could of had a milllion dingelberries attatched to my ass i wouldnt have cared...i was so upset the lowest point for so long even lower than when i talked myself out of a guy giving me a BJ for $100 I just couldnt do it..i felt lower than when my mom force fed me flowers..
I almost killed myself on day 2 when metallica came on the radio..i dont know how I ever made it out alive..i always swear to this day it was just the hope of being back in action someday..it lifted me out of the bottomless pit and gave me reason to live and breathe..never quit guys..not even when they are dragging your face through the ****..there is always someone worse off than you..like a guy with a glass eye with a fish in it....keep GRIND ON THE MIND

And finally, I'll share a story of my own. This might be my most degen story to date so why not start things off with a bang?

About four years ago I was at a wedding in the western suburbs and we had decided beforehand that after the reception we would go to the Hollywood Casino in Aurora, which is one of the 8 or 9 riverboat casinos in Illinois. Now, the Hollywood isn't exactly the Bellagio, and we stroll in still dressed from the wedding. Due to getting totally sauced at the wedding, my memory on the details is a little hazy, but basically I pull $400 out of my pocket and plop it down on a $25 min bet blackjack table. At the beginning, things were going ok and I probably ran it up to $550 or so. Then, the downswing hit, and after Martingaling my way down to $50, I went bust on the next hand.

Well, I wasn't giving up that easily and made a beeline right to the ATM. This is the only time I've ever gone to an ATM in a casino. I pulled out $500 and went right back to the same table. Over the next 5-10 minutes, I won a grand total of ZERO hands and pissed away the entire $500.

So here I was...sitting at a blackjack table. With no money. In a suit. At a riverboat casino. In Aurora, Illinois. Nine hundred dollars poorer. At least I was drunk.

A laugh from the past - Bruno in Alabama

2010-02-24T22:41:00.001-06:00

It's even better with the subtitles

Three months of awesomeness

2010-02-20T20:18:00.004-06:00

Another "whining about poker" post, but when I continually get screwed in every way imaginable, it's hard not to complain. Since November 23rd, I'm running a lovely $5,000 below expected on all-in hands. All these hands are at $200-$600NL tables. The red line is my expected all-in winnings and the blue line is my actual. If this isn't fun, I don't know what is.

Not only am I getting unlucky but I'm also getting coolered like there's no tomorrow (or coolered like the dickens, etc). In fact, the combination of the two just led to the last 90 minutes costing me $2,300. YAYYYYYY!!!!!!!!

The red line is my expected winnings on all-in hands, the blue line is the actual

Haiti Donations, Rush Poker, Conan

2010-01-24T22:15:00.003-06:00

After the terrible earthquake in Haiti, many people are looking for ways to donate money to help the relief effort. Clearly there are quite a few ways to go about doing this, but for those of you with online poker accounts, I recommend donating through PokerStars or Full Tilt as any donation you make is matched 100% by the site. You just need to register for what they call a "dummy tournament" (as in, it won't be an actual tourney, just a means of being able to donate the money) on the site. Poker Stars has donations from $1 to $1000 (and you can sign up for all of these if you'd like) and Full Tilt has a $200 donation dummy tourney. So, if you're still looking for a way to help out, get your donation automatically doubled by giving through Poker Stars and Full Tilt. Funds will be donated to Red Cross, UNICEF and Doctors Without Borders.

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Staying on the subject of online poker sites, Full Tilt recently debuted a new type of poker call "Rush Poker." In Rush Poker you are dealt a hand and as soon as you fold, you are immediately moved to another table with completely different players. The advantages are that you get to play many many more hands over your session, but the negatives are that you don't get to see how hands play out after you have folded, and it's nearly impossible to get any type of read on your opponents.

Everyone on the forums seems really excited about this, but I don't think this will be poker's "next big thing" and will be just a fad. If you're a total action-junkie degenerate, then this game is for you. Although, I think it will still be possible to find weak players in normal games as well.

So, while you're donating to Haiti on Full Tilt, give Rush Poker a try...at least until your head explodes.

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Finally, I'd like to share my thoughts on the whole NBC-Conan-Leno fiasco. I've always been a huge Conan O'Brien fan, and if you've read various things I've written over the past six years, this should be pretty apparent. I know his ratings on The Tonight Show weren't that great, but a good portion of that is due to the absolutely abysmal lead-in from Leno's show...and I'm still trying to figure out why they even decided that giving him a prime-time talk show was even a remotely smart idea (other than saving money).

To give Conan only seven months is a total joke. When Leno first started on The Tonight Show, Letterman destroyed him night in and night out. After a couple years, Leno was able to build more of an audience, eventually surpass Letterman, and never look back. Conan deserved the same type of honeymoon period.

As I've gotten further along into my 20s I've watched less and less late-night tv, but the drama of the last few weeks has definitely made me more interested in watching, and I truly think Conan, becoming more and more care-free by the day, was near his very best over those last 20 episodes or so.

Anyway, I think Fox will eventually pick up Conan (who is now riding a wave of increased popularity thanks to this) and put him on at 11:30 against Letterman and Leno.

That will be a battle worth watching, let alone Letterman v Leno II, which I also plan to keep an eye on.

This bear holds a major grudge

2010-01-22T20:51:00.001-06:00

This is the intro video for the University of Alaska-Fairbanks hockey team. If there's one thing I've learned, the day the Earth blows up, I want to be inside the Carlson Center.

Blazin' Wing Takedown

2009-12-24T00:19:00.003-06:00

On Sunday I finally settled my Bulls/Blackhawks/Bears playoff bet from last year. I lost the bet and had to eat 12 bone-in blazin' wings and 6 wings of my choice from Buffalo Wild Wings.

The experience itself wasn't as bad as I thought it would be, but it was no picnic either. I enjoyed my 6 medium wings and then employed a strategy based on speed for the Blazins, and was able to eat all 12 in just under 4 minutes. Here are some pictures from the event...

Other than that, nothing else too interesting to report. Poker has been going a little better than before, although I haven't been playing much lately. After Christmas I'm going to Utah for a few days of skiing so I'm pretty excited about that.

Christopher Walken performs Lady Gaga's Poker Face

2009-12-11T18:29:00.001-06:00

Running $3,400 below expected value in two days is pretty messed up...

2009-11-24T20:45:00.001-06:00

...but not nearly as messed up as this

McKenna for Governor Ad....Seriously??

2009-11-10T18:41:00.001-06:00

This would be so much better if he were bald

Didn't hit my goal, but I'm still content

2009-10-11T17:16:00.004-05:00

Last year for the marathon it was 84 degrees. This year it was about 38 degrees. I wasn't thrilled with the forecast for today, but I had no issues at all running in this weather and almost think that it might be better than running in 60 degree weather.

My goal for the race was to break four hours...a time which I considered somewhat of a reach based on how I trained this year, which certainly wasn't lackadaisically, but wasn't as intense or serious as it probably could've been. And the sole reason for that is because running was often pushed to the side in lieu of more important things that sometimes coincided with my running schedule. So, given that, I thought breaking four was a good challenge for me and a time around 4:10-4:20 to be more realistic.

Unfortunately, I didn't reach the four hour goal but I was pretty pleased with how the race went overall and I had a MUCH more enjoyable time this year than I did last year, where I basically just wilted away in the heat.

Some of my goals in this year's race..
1. Start out a lot slower than last year, around 9 min/mi pace
- Unfortunately I made the mistake of starting too far back in the back and got jammed pretty often on the narrower streets and ended up running the first 3 miles in about 30 minutes, but was still able to run half in about 2 hours.

2. Not have to make any "pit stops"
- I ended up making two, one at 8 miles and another around 14. These combined cost me just under 9 minutes total, but even if I didn't have these I still wouldn't have broken 4 hrs.

3. Enjoy the race
- I know this might sound pretty fruity or whatever, but the Chicago Marathon is a really fun race that takes you through many different neighborhoods and shows many people (myself included) parts of the city you typically don't experience. I definitely accomplished this goal and really made it a point to take in the scenery, the crowds, and actively search for the people who came to cheer me on. My favorite moments included:

1. Someone holding a sign that said "Marry Me Uncle Sex" (huh??), who I ended up seeing three times during the race.

2. Around mile four, a group of 20 something guys were standing on LaSalle St pounding beers with a sign that said "free beer for runners." A runner in front of me actually took one of the beers and drank it. The expressions on the guys' faces were priceless. I wasn't sure if they were in shock because a runner had a beer during the race, or pissed because they had one fewer beer to drink themselves.

3. The all-male cheerleading squad in Boystown. Just one of those moments that gives you a laugh when you could use one.

4. A bunch of fat guys with thick, Italian accents cheering us on in Little Italy. Sorry, I just think Italian accents are funny.

4. Seeing a big group of my friends at mile 24, who I had failed to see at every other point in the race, one of whom came out and ran the rest of the race with me. It sure made those last 2 miles easier to run.

So, overall I had a fun time today. It was really great to see everyone who came out and supported me. I can't emphasize enough how awesome it is to see familiar faces during the race, especially after the 20th mile.

And one other positive note...no work tomorrow!

Can't wait to see this

2009-10-07T22:35:00.001-05:00

Yet another similarity between trading and poker...especially the old guys complaining about technology and "the computer boys."

My monthly post

2009-10-06T21:43:00.003-05:00

This blog has turned into a complete disgrace. Although, I suppose that would mean it was something better than that before I started posting roughly once a month.

Anyway, here's a story about poker, running and Jay Mariotti

Last Friday, after running eight miles in the rain as my final marathon warm-up, I crashed pretty early and ended up sleeping around 11 hours. When I woke up at 6am on Saturday, I was full of energy and decided that it would be in my best interest to degen it up on Full Tilt. Good call, me.

I sat at a bunch of open heads up tables and it was like shooting fish in a barrel. It felt like the good old days, when you only had to wait seconds for a game with a subpar player. There were bad euros left and right, and no other North American players competing with me for their action. After winning ten buy-ins it was time for breakfast. There's nothing quite like the feeling of cashing in before doing a single thing during the weekend.

So I found the key - just never go out on the weekends so I can wake up before all the North American players so I get all the bad euros to myself. The action in the evenings on weeknights is so slow that I might actually consider doing this 2 or 3 times a month.

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Just five more days until the Chicago Marathon and I am starting to get pretty anxious. Last year I had a pretty miserable experience and I've been waiting to change that feeling for nearly 365 days. My shortcomings last year were a combination of the hot weather (84 degrees), running the first 9 miles WAYYYY too fast, and not pausing enough to get water and electrolytes.

This year it's supposed to be 47 and rainy. I'm going to do my best to run slow for the first 16 miles and just see what I have left in the tank for the last 10. This is always easier said than done though, especially with all the adrenaline flowing through your body the first half of the race. Anyway, we'll see how it goes. I'm looking forward to getting it over with more than anything.

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Despite staying in on Friday night, I did end up going out on Saturday with a bunch of friends to what might be my new favorite spot in Chicago, Hub 51. While meandering about the bar, we ran into national sports journalist and panelist on ESPN's Around the Horn, Jay Mariotti, arguably the most hated man in Chicago. I've never had a problem with Jay and actually think he is a pretty decent writer. He's very controversial and always looks for the cloud in the silver lining, but then again, when I had my journalism "career" way back in the day, I was somewhat similar, so maybe that's why I kind of like him.

Regardless, I spoke briefly to Jay and just wanted to meet him. He seemed pretty nice, perhaps a few drinks into the evening and just hanging with "his boys" near the front of the bar, no doubt waiting for Jay Cutler and Greg Olsen to wander in and make their presence known.

What an awesome blog this is...riiiiiiiiiight

2009-09-08T22:21:00.003-05:00

So I haven't updated this thing in a while and I was going to make a really long, funny post but I decided to play poker instead, and now it's late and I have to go to bed.

Or maybe I can just rhyme everything.

Maybe not.

Anyway, here is a list of what I've been up to and some random thoughts interspersed..

1. New job - I am really enjoying my new job, despite having to wake up at 4:30 every morning. As I've said before, trading is just a more complicated form of poker so it's been a little easier transition for me than it otherwise would have been. That said, I still have a ton to learn and a long way to go before being successful.

2. Poker - After my worst month ever in July, I had a very good August, despite playing only 7,000 hands (I've had 24 hour periods where I've played more than that). The heads-up action at Full Tilt has been pretty thin lately, which is very discouraging. I get exhausted when I'm just WAITING for a game, let playing one. However, tonight was the best action I've had in probably 5-6 weeks and outside of dumping three buy-ins to some clown, I would've had one of my better sessions of the entire year. Instead it was a run-of-the-mill 1.5 buy-in win, but I'm not complaining.

3. New crib, as they say these days - At the end of August I moved out of boring Roscoe Village (aka Strollerland) and into a new 2 bedroom condo in River North. Because I live within of walking distance to everything I need, I ditched my car and am trying to see if I can be self-sufficient with no wheels. Nine days into the experiment it's going well. The main downside to the neighborhood is that running is extremely difficult when there is a stoplight every half-block. Other potential negatives will be the obscene amount of money I will light on fire at all the bars and restaurants nearby, and the fact that I'll probably put on about 40 pounds at said nearby bars and restaurants. Other than that, my commute to work is about 15 minutes door to door, my place is really nice, and I'm finally living amongst people my age again.

4. Cars and Pedestrians - Another warning to everyone. If I'm running and you cut me off, your car is getting hit. And if the douchebag who almost hit me at Erie and St Clair is reading this, I know it's a rug. So does everyone else.

5. Illini football - My gosh, where do I even begin. Luckily, I missed most of Saturday's debacle because of a friend's wedding, but holy crap do we suck. I've been to an Illini game every year since 2001 but the streak might get snapped this year. It's very difficult for me to root for a team that I can't like. And by that I don't mean a losing team. I mean a team that has just quit and mailed it in for the season. That is what happened to last year's team in October, and that's what looks like has happened to this team in the first game of the season. This better get turned around fast. But since our coach, well, can't coach very well, I'm not getting my hopes up too much.

6. I really love my new place.

7. I really hate Comcast. Details of why will be saved for its own post. Or posts.

8. 93% of people polled believe that I am the laziest blogger this side of Sharad Mattu.

9. I really hope nobody took my advice in my post right below this one. Oops.

Stock market rally

2009-08-08T21:38:00.000-05:00

THERE'S NO VOLUME! SELL SELL SELL

Get real job, start sucking at poker

2009-07-27T23:27:00.003-05:00

Worst two days of poker in my entire life...I have just run shockingly awful. I never imagined it would be possible to run this bad. Of course, I'll run worse at some point in my life, and then I'll run worse than that. That's what always happens. To everyone. That's just how this sick game works.

No matter what I do, I can't win. I can bet pot in a reraised pot on 3 streets with AA and end up losing to J2 when he hits his flush draw on the river. Win JJ or QQ vs AK all in preflop? Forget about it. Not happening. 50%? More like 0%.

And then of course the real back-breaking hands are when the guy sucks out with a card that improves my hand. For example, a 3rd diamond on the river that gives me trips but gives him a flush. How can I fold that heads up?

I can sit here and whine and stress about this all night but it won't do any good. I realize that. I already have enough ways to tilt at work and maybe I don't need poker to add to it.

An already bad poker month has now spiraled into by far the worst month of my entire life and I've pretty much come to terms with the fact that I will be booking the first losing month of my pro poker career (am I still a pro?). I think I'm just going to take the rest of the month off and start August with a fresh slate...or perhaps cash out all of my money across every site - or maybe cash a bunch out and leave enough to play smaller, stress-free stakes. Who knows. I think I'm too competitive to do that though.

On a more positive note, July has been a great month outside of poker...probably the best month of the year. I really like my new job a lot, plus it's summer in Chicago - although it hasn't really felt like it yet.

Kind of funny how that works out.

Nice work, Lenny

2009-07-08T21:24:00.003-05:00

From KTLA:

LOS ANGELES -- Baseball great Lenny Dykstra has filed for bankruptcy protection, citing more than $31 million in debts.

The former center fielder for the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies has less than $50,000 worth of assets and liabilities of between $10 million and $50 million, according to the petition filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Central District of California in the San Fernando Valley. He also claims to have between 50 and 99 creditors.

Dykstra, 46, whose lifestyle included a lavish house, a jet and a Rolls Royce, says he owes millions of dollars to his 20 largest creditors, many of them banks. He owes JPMorgan Chase & Co. $12.9 million, according to the documents, and Bank of America's Countrywide and credit-card units a combined $4.2 million.

His filing follows at least two dozen lawsuits over his business and financial dealings.

Dykstra, nicknamed "Nails" for his rough-and-ready style, is a former All-Star who spent 12 years with the Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. He won a World Series with the Mets in 1986.

--

Lenny Dykstra was also a contributor for TheStreet.com (founded by the one and only Jim Cramer), and wrote articles touting his "unique" strategy of trading deep-in-the-money options. To be privy to Mr. Dykstra's options "expertise" you had to pay the small fee of $995 per year.

I can just imagine how the hiring process went:

Jim: Oh man, I love Lenny Dykstra and the Phillies! I gotta hire this guy
Jim: Lenny, come work for me. Booya!
Lenny: Hmm, more money for me...sure why not!!
Jim: Ba-ba-ba-booya Lenny!
Lenny: A big old deep-in-the-money, and soon to be deep in debt booya right back atcha, Jimbo!!

And of course, old Lenny has blown up in spectacular fashion (like this was any real surprise) and it really leaves you wondering if he really had any options experience at all. I'm going to go with no. I'm a little confused as to why someone would base their entire strategy around deep-in-the-money options (partially because it sounds completely retarded and partially because I don't trade options) and I would really love to know which trade or trades finally blew Len up.

Thank you, Lenny Dykstra - you are a perfect example of someone I do not want to model my very young trading career after.

June poker recap - the end of an era

2009-07-02T12:28:00.003-05:00

Despite playing only 13,459 hands this month thanks in large part to a Europe trip that took up ten days, I still had one of my best months of the year, and in terms of profit per hand (or as we in the online poker world call "ptbb/100"), this was my best month ever.

June was also the last month poker will be my sole source of income as I begin my new trading career on Monday. Thus, I suspect I will have many future months with fewer than 20k hands played. As for the days leading up to Monday, I'm not sure how many hours, if any, I'll actually play. I've been trying to just relax this week before it's back to the grind. Yesterday I went to the Taste of Chicago for lunch - probably the first time I've gone in about 10-12 years. Despite the rain, unseasonably cold 60 degree temperatures, and being Wednesday, it was still pretty crowded and it reminded me of why I never go. Last night I went out for a drink with my roommate Ben, and nearing the end of the night the waitress asked if we wanted another drink. I sort of balked at the idea while Ben was all about having another. The waitress then asked me if I had to work tomorrow. I turned to her and said, "no, we're both off until Monday."

For some reason it just felt really good to say that. Probably because it's the 100% truth instead of the half-truths I've been telling people over the past year and a half.

What I do to Automobiles

2009-06-28T20:00:00.003-05:00

Is there a smudgy hand print on your car window? Or a new dent near the back of your white, child-molester van? If so, there's a good chance I created the new artwork on your vehicle.

Some of you might be thinking, "Oh, Chris, you vandal, why would ever do such a thing??" Well let me tell you why. These people/cars deserve it.

Let's use an example: Last Wednesday I was running westbound on Aldine Street at Halsted. There is an insanely clear THREE-WAY STOP at that intersection (three-way bc Aldine is one-way running east). Well, a three-way stop that is clear to everyone except the fake-baked middle-aged cougar in her white BMW SUV who instead decided to 'slow' to 25 mph to make a right turn as I was entering the intersection - incorrectly assuming that she possessed a brain and would stop her car as required by law. As the car came within five inches of turning me into a flapjack looking for some Mrs Butterworth's, I gave its back right window a futile, yet sweaty and sticky, open-handed bitch-slap.

Here are my rules on the road: If your car is in motion and close enough for me to touch when I'm running, you're getting hit. Plain and simple. I figure a little dirt and possible dent is the least I can do in retaliation for your attempted murder of me.

The other thing is that you won't do a single thing about it either. First, you're probably overweight and won't be able to catch up to me if you get out of the car to chase me. Second, even if you can get me, you've also just left your car running in the middle of the road holding up traffic. You've suddenly become an even bigger douchebag than you were before. I suppose you could pull out a gun and shoot me, but in broad daylight in the middle of a busy intersection I'm willing to take my chances on that one.

Hits and near-hits are very commonplace for most runners in Chicago. This can all be avoided if people would just slow down and actually STOP at stop signs. Or at the very least, look for pedestrians as well as cars before proceeding through the intersection. I feel like a good chunk of the folks who drive around Chicago would probably fail driver's ed if they took it now.

We'll see how things go this week...

Searching for Vegas desire

2009-06-23T23:18:00.005-05:00

So I get home from a great Europe trip. Each city we visited was fantastic (London, Oslo, Stockholm). Even things in Chicago look great. Summer has finally arrived, my street is FINALLY repaved, and Jermaine Dye's batting average has dipped into the .260s. What else could I possibly ask for?

However, the absolute last places I want be right now are an airport, an airplane, and the most shallow place on earth - Las Vegas, Nevada. I'm still trying to decide whether to go play in the $1,500 event starting on Monday anyway. I've learned to not play poker when I'm not in the mood. Does the same apply for just going to Vegas itself? If I bust out of the tournament (bad) there will be plenty of cash games to play (good), but I'm also going to miss yet another week of marathon training (bad). I'd be in Vegas from Sunday through Thursday so there will be less temptation to go party and I'll be able to focus solely on work.

Time to watch Rounders to see if that changes anything.

Money Pit, Europe & Las Vegas

2009-06-07T21:27:00.002-05:00

Saturday was a pretty miserable day weather-wise, so I decided to try something a little different and went down to Stretch Run in River North, which is a restaurant/bar/off-track betting facility. The Belmont Stakes was taking place, but you're able to bet on races at any track in the country.

I'll be the first to admit I know absolutely nothing about horse betting (other than what each bet means) and have no strategy whatsoever (other than picking names I like the best - definite winner there). However, I do like watching horse racing (preferably at the track itself), and it can sometimes be fun to just totally degen it up with some micro-stakes gambling.

John came with me and for the afternoon we probably made about $110-$120 worth of bets between the two of us. Our total winnings: $3.60 on a $2 show bet placed by John. Despite the atrocious performance, I am happy to say that I made the "Bet of the Day" and it happened to be on the Belmont Stakes itself.

I made three bets on the race, and all of the bets included the top four finishing horses: Summer Bird (#4), Dunkirk (#2), Mine That Bird (#7) and Charitable Man (#6) - the latter being the nickname the OTB gave me that day. Anyway, the bets I placed were:

Exacta Box with 4,6,7
Show 6
Exacta Box 2,7

Despite these bets all including the top four finishers, I was able to pull off the feat of losing every single bet. And to rub salt in the wound, there was an inquiry at the end of the race as to whether Dunkirk had bumped another horse enough to warrant a DQ, and had that happened I would've won the 4,6,7 box and 6 Show since 2 would've been out. Unfortunately, there was no DQ and all we could do was just sit back and laugh about it.

Overall it was a pretty fun time and I would definitely go back. It's a great way to kill an afternoon, and your wallet, when the weather is really bad.

Speaking of money pits, I played the PokerStars Sunday Million this afternoon and it was more of the same for me in tournaments. I'm not really too steamed because I thought I played really well - things just didn't fall my way when I needed them to. It's amazing how easy it is to outplay a lot of guys after the flop and there are SO MANY pots you can steal on the turn and river. It got to the point where I would just call a raise in position with anything decent and then make a play at the pot whenever I totally missed.

My demise came a few minutes from the 3rd break with the blinds at 600/1200 and a 50 ante. I had about 23,000 chips on the button and was facing an 11,000 all-in from a guy in mid-late position. He had been pretty active early on but his stack was beginning to dwindle and he had tightened up considerably. I had 77 and was really debating whether to fold or shove. I decided to make a play and go all-in since I only had 19 big blinds left. The blinds folded and he flipped up K8 hearts. I'm a slight favorite here but for all intents and purposes it's basically a coin flip. A K hit the flop and I was down to 12,000. My stack stayed in the 8,000-13,000 range for a bit until I had KQ in the big blind with 8,000 left after I posted. It folded around to the small blind who shoved all in and I insta-called. He had J9 hearts. I'm a 3 to 2 favorite here but he spiked a J on flop and I was unable to improve and that was that.

Granted, it's disappointing to once again not make it into the money, but I'm actually feeling pretty good about my tournament game and picking up on some things that never really fully registered with me in the past. I was also fortunate to have a pretty good day at the cash tables, although I was surprised how slow it was for a Sunday.

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I have nearly all of my Europe trip planned. I'll be leaving on Friday for London with John and Andrew, and will also be visiting Oslo and Stockholm, returning to Chicago on June 21. We still need to find a hotel in Stockholm but other than that now we just need to plan out each day and make sure to see as much as we possibly can in each city.

Over the past couple days I've also been toying with the idea of going out to Las Vegas once I get back from Europe. I've actually been really into following the World Series of Poker this year and with my trading job starting up in early July, now would be a good time to go. I've also found some pretty ridiculous deals on airfare and hotel, so I almost have to do it from a cost standpoint alone.

I've been talking a lot with Sharad (who is out in Vegas for the entire summer covering the WSOP) who said the cash games are as soft as ever and it would be good just to experience the WSOP itself. However, I will have to miss yet another week of marathon training, but I think I can schedule it so I won't have to miss a weekend long run.

I would probably head out June 28 and return July 2, and will most likely play the $1,500 no-limit hold 'em event on the 29th, although the structure looks pretty crappy. There aren't many other NLHE tournaments going on that week at the WSOP, but a couple others that look interesting are:

$3,000 Triple Chance NLHE - June 28-30 This is a new event this year where you receive two add-ons in the first three levels

$5,000 Six-handed NLHE - June 30-July 2 The structure for this tourney suits my game a lot better than the $1,500 but plunking down $5k for a tournament isn't really appealing considering my tournament success isn't exactly world-class...

...but I'm going to break through eventually.

The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien

2009-06-02T23:43:00.002-05:00

As none of you probably remember (nor should you, for that matter), on October 1, 2004 I wrote a Daily Illini column about the naming of Conan O'Brien as host of The Tonight Show.

The only reason I know this exact date is because I clicked on the link on the right of my blog named "Daily Illini Columns" only to find that I get re-directed to www.dailyillini.com. Alas, there is no more direct link to the columns I wrote half a decade ago, and even sadder, when I searched the DI Web site, only a few of my columns still remain on the internet - thankfully, they're all the good ones.

But Chris, aren't they ALL the good one?

You're too kind.

Thus, the extreme narcissist in me did a Google search for my columns and they are still available on High Beam Research - which you have to pay for...and I'm wondering, do I get any cut of that? I'm going to guess probably not. Screwed again.

Not only are all my columns still available online (albeit, on a much more difficult to access Web site), but I also have every final draft of every column I wrote saved on my computer - and of course every print edition stored away in my closet at my parents' house (along with about 50 million baseball cards from the late 80s and early 90s).

So, tonight I was going to write part two of my Conan O'Brien series (part one has been copied and pasted below because I'm starved for attention). However, I'm going to have to keep it brief because I decided to spend so much time writing about myself instead. Here's a simple timeline everyone should be able to follow...

1993 - Conan takes over Late Night; everyone thinks he'll fail

1995 - Conan actually good

2000 - Sidekick Andy Richter leaves Late Night; everyone thinks Conan will fail

2001 - Conan still good

2003 - Conan still good

2004 - Conan announced as new host of The Tonight Show, starting in 2009; everyone thinks he will fail

2006 - Conan still good

2008 - Conan still good

2009 - Conan takes over The Tonight Show

2009+ - Why should we go against the trend?

I thought the first episode was quite funny and I expect that to continue for many years. I really think that the only people who don't like Conan are the half-wits who were Jay Leno fans and thought gimmicks like "The Dancing Itos (after OJ judge Lance Ito)" and staged questionnaires with random people who "didn't know" the answers to simple questions were actually clever. The only part of Leno's Tonight Show I actually thought was funny were the "Headlines" - something he didn't even have to write since people around the country mailed him the material.

I will say this for Jay though: He knew his audience and he played to it well. And I suppose that's part of the business too.

(on a final sidenote, I didn't actually re-read my 2004 column until I was done writing this blog post - it's amazing how my opinion hasn't changed one bit over this time)

Herrrre’s Conan
By Chris Kozak
October 1, 2004

It’s been ten long years, but better later than never. This week, NBC announced that Conan O’Brien will assume hosting duties on “The Tonight Show” when current host Jay Leno retires. Unfortunately, the funniest and most talented personality in late-night television won’t receive this promotion until 2009.

Conan, the red-headed, nerdy high school class valedictorian, uses uncanny self-deprecating humor as one of the main tenets of his comedic presentation. My translation: He is an icon to those of us who got little to no action in high school and stayed in on Friday nights to watch his show, while our friends were out with their significant others (Important side note: Since arriving at the University, I have become a total player and am no longer in need of Conan for self-esteem boosts).

While I’m grateful Conan will be on an hour earlier, I’m disappointed that this change won’t happen for another half-decade. Jay Leno brings nothing more to “The Tonight Show” than his gigantic chin, and very obvious, lowbrow jokes. The only part of his show that’s even remotely funny is the weekly “Headlines” segment. Here, people from around the nation mail him clippings of poorly worded headlines and phrases from various newspapers (e.g. “Implant group may need a bigger room”). For Jay, this is basically the equivalent of a night off. I think the show would be better if he took every night off. After all, there’s nothing like having someone to scour through the Cedar Rapids Gazette for your material.

Thankfully, I have David Letterman’s “Late Show” on CBS to keep me entertained before “Late Night with Conan O’Brien” begins on NBC. Letterman brings 22 and a half years of experience to the late-night talk circuit, and also began as Conan’s predecessor on “Late Night” in 1982. Unlike many other entertainers, he has managed to stay fresh and witty despite hosting shows in three different decades. Two examples of his continued cleverness are the infamous “Top Ten” lists, and newer skits like the one involving two ‘rough around the edge’ stagehands called “Pat and Kenny read Oprah transcripts.”

But like many others my age, I relate more to the youthful exuberance Conan brings to his program night in and night out. It’s difficult to go wrong when you can interview President Bush, Senator Kerry, Governor Schwarzenegger and Michael Jackson at the same time “via satellite” (well, at least their mug shots with someone else’s lips doing the talking). Plus, it’s difficult to not love costumed characters like Triumph the Insult Comic Dog, the Masturbating Bear, and my personal favorite, Pimpbot 5000 – whose looks and mannerisms frighteningly resemble those of many engineers on this campus - minus the whole pimp persona, of course.

Nevertheless, various critics believe Conan is not the right man to take over “The Tonight Show.” They say his humor is too off-the-wall and ridiculous to be appreciated by the generally older audiences that now watch Leno. I beg to differ. Conan’s humor is too crafty and sophisticated to be appreciated by the generally dumber audiences that now watch Leno. Anyone can walk around Santa Monica with a microphone and camera and ask people to pretend they don’t know where the Statue of Liberty is. Where’s the creativity, Jay? I’ll gladly take a scenic “Desk Drive” with Conan instead of sitting through that crap. It’s hard to blame Leno for dumbing down his show, however. After all, he does live in Los Angeles.

Conan has been on too late for too long. Since many TV viewers need to wake up early for work or school, they typically choose sleep over television and thus can’t experience his comedic genius on a nightly basis. With a move up to “The Tonight Show,” that will change. The rest of the country will soon be introduced to this pale-skinned, six foot-five inch behemoth – even if it does take five more years.

Saving Face, Sorry!, I'm Back For More Cash

2009-06-02T00:43:00.003-05:00

So in my last post I talked about how poorly I ran the last time I played poker; dumping six buy-ins at 600NL - four to the same player. Well, today was my first day playing since then, and things went a little better. Granted, I didn't win the six buy-ins back, but I was once again challenged by the player who who took four of them off me. I was basically in complete control of the match from the first hand, didn't run into many sick spots, and he eventually quit me after I won two buy-ins off him. I'm hoping to see more of this player, as I feel I have a pretty significant edge on him. Time will tell...

I'm planning to cut back on the number of hands I play this month, since it's my last month before I officially start my new trading job and I want to try and relax and enjoy the summer before I start waking up at 4:30 every morning to get ready for work. I already have ten days blocked off for a trip in the middle of the month. My final destination options were: Europe, Alaska, and Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker. I chose Europe and will be heading to England, Norway, and Sweden. I would really like to go to Vegas for the WSOP and this year might be the best year to do it, but I felt that I would just get more out of a trip across the Atlantic (not more money, however).

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A new rage in my apartment now (at least between Ben and myself) is playing the board game Sorry! for money. Each of us occupies two colors (the one closest to you and the one diagonal to that color) and the first person to close out both colors is the winner. There are bonuses awarded to the winner if the opponent fails to close out either color. We play for really small stakes, but if you happen to run cold, your cost of playing the game can escalate pretty quickly. Two weekends ago I played John in seven games, winning six of them. Tonight I played Ben in eight games, winning just two of them. Now, nearly every game comes down to the last pawn from each player basically racing to home, so to win or lose more than three in a row is pretty difficult to do. Tonight, needless to say, I had trouble finding Home.

It's interesting how there is probably a mathematically correct move for each card you pull in every possible situation on the board, but there is so much randomness in the game that it probably doesn't matter a whole lot.

Now, this brings up an important question: What's more pathetic? The fact that I lost six games of Sorry! in a row, or the mere fact that I was just playing the game Sorry!?

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Over the weekend I started reading "I'm Back for More Cash" by Tony Kornheiser, who is best known as the co-host of ESPN's "Pardon the Interruption." The book is a compilation of his humor columns over the years at the Washington Post and I have to say, they're pretty funny. It's made me more motivated to actually make interesting blog posts (and if not interesting, then posts about things other than poker and trading) so be on the look out for those in the future. I know, I've said this before, and haven't always followed through, but this time, it might actually be the truth.

Maybe.

Seriously doomed at NL600, Trading tilt

2009-05-27T17:19:00.003-05:00

Variance in heads up is so sick. Today I ran the worst I have ever run in my entire life in a single day, and most of the damage of course was at $600 NL, where I proceeded to dump six buy-ins - mostly to the same (retarded) player. I don't even know where to begin...flopped straight over flopped straight, top pair and straight draw vs middle 2 pair on a turn overbet shove (which is typically bluffy but not in this case of course), top pair + flush draw in a 3 bet pot vs AA (I'm actually 53% vs the aces here, but yes it is a coin flip - would be nice to F'n win one though), 2nd pair vs. donk overshove where he had over cards and no draws and proceeded to hit one...flopped trips vs runner runner flush, flopped trips vs rivered flush...Here's a tip: drawing to your 5 high flush (or any flush for that matter) on a paired board is an insanely stupid idea and you might as well just take all your cash and throw it into a bonfire...unless you're playing against me, in which case it will likely turn out to be very profitable for you.

This loss would've stung much more 6 months ago but it's still seriously frustrating as hell to just not be able to get a single all-in pot to go your way.

Well, these days happen and they're going to happen more and more for me once I introduce trading tilt into my life come July.

I'm still trying to decide which type of tilt is worse - poker tilt or trading tilt. In trading, it's easy to exit a losing position and just move on to the next opportunity. In poker, it's difficult to quit a losing session when you're playing against someone you have a huge edge on, because over time you will eventually take all his money. In poker, you can dictate the action but in trading the action gets dictated to you and you have to be more reactionary rather than setting the tone for the moment (unless you're a huge trader).

However, in trading, the lack of control can be annoying especially after 5 or 6 losing trades in a row and there is just nothing you can do about it. In poker if you lose 5 or 6 big pots in a row, yes its annoying, but if you're still playing the same opponent you actually have control over the situation and can do something about getting the money back.

Something I've often thought about...I guess we'll see in a few months.

Back to the Grind

2009-05-21T16:01:00.003-05:00

Last night I played poker for the first time in about eight days. The long break mainly because of an extended weekend in Virginia for my sister's graduation and I just had some other things going on/didn't really feel like playing.

Anyway I played just over 2,000 hands last night and finished down about $400, which for middle stakes is a really small loss. Some people would even consider it breaking even. I thought I played pretty well except against one hyper-aggressive lagtard who was flat calling preflop 4-bets out of position with hands like 95, Q6 etc. I mean, what am I supposed to do with AK on a KQ6 flop when almost half the money is already in the middle?? I dumped about 4 buy-ins to him, although I certainly could've played a little better and was a little tilted.

The bulk of my losses came at $3/$6 where I only got action from two guys all night (3/6 HU is a really really dead limit) and they each got up on me quick and then quit instantly after stacking me, so I was down $1,200 after only playing like 40 hands. But, things went a lot better at $2/$4 and $1/$2.

I also folded QQ preflop for the first time, oh, probably ever. This was either an incredibly brilliant move or the stupidest idea ever. Probably the latter. I was in the BB and re-raised to $40 preflop. The button then thought forever and made what seemed to be a very calculated 4-bet. I just had a really bad feeling about it and mucked the hand after thinking forever. He was pretty conservative and that was his first 4-bet. 99% of the time I'll be shoving it all-in there but this time I just had a bad feeling about it. It's just hard to explain. I was really hoping he'd show but he didn't.

Also, today I received my second gift from the Full Tilt Store. Basically, for playing on Full Tilt (and all poker sites for that matter) you receive points for how long you play and you can cash those points in for items in their store (items range from electronics to books to cars to clothing, etc) Last summer I used a bunch of points for a 42" Panasonic plasma TV. Of course, that used up a big chunk of my points so a few weeks ago I was bored and looking through the store and decided to buy some slippers. These are the flimsiest things ever and if they last longer than a week I'll be shocked. However, they are quite comfortable as long as you are not walking around in them.

Back to Reality

2009-05-11T01:49:00.002-05:00

Come July, poker will revert back to being job #2 for me as this week I accepted an offer to join a Chicago trading firm which specializes in fixed income futures. For the past four months or so, I’ve been looking for the right opportunity in the trading world and I’m confident that I have finally found it. Of all the places I interviewed, this firm was the one I was most interested in so I’m especially thrilled to have received an offer.

Poker has become fairly dull for me and I don’t enjoy it nearly as much as I once did. The poker lifestyle has become very monotonous and lonely, and it’s time for a change. When I first started playing professionally, I always thought the only reason I would ever quit poker is if it stopped being profitable for me. I have unlimited freedom, I’m my own boss, I work my own hours. And I play a game for a living. Isn’t that every guy’s dream? Of course, “game” is usually basketball, baseball or football, but I think you can apply similar logic here.

But, I had no idea how much the poker life would wear me down mentally. I get a lot of condescending looks and responses from people when I tell them what I do for a living. I get asked some of the dumbest questions too. Here are my personal top five:

5. “And you actually make money from this?” No, I lose money but I grow money trees in my backyard, so it works out nicely.
4. “Do you play for real money?” Seriously. Do you get paid with monopoly money?
3. “So you basically play online blackjack, right?” Right.
2. “Don’t you know that the casino is eventually going to beat you?” That’s a good thing for me to remember, you know, in case I ever play a game against a casino.
And my favorite…
1. “How have you been able to stay out of jail?” I’m the D.A.’s boy toy.

At first I thought it was really cool to tell people what I did for a living since it is very unique and entrepreneurial. And each person I spoke with thought it was really cool too – as long as that person was a male between the ages of 21 and 25. Little by little I started wearing down and then began just lying to people I never thought I’d see again. Examples:

For when I’m not feeling very creative or talkative, I’m a…
CONSULTANT
I’ve done it before so what I say is believable. Just spew a bunch of supply chain jargon into their ears and the conversation ends pretty quickly.

For when I’m feeling somewhat creative and somewhat talkative, I’m an…
INDEPENDENT STOCK TRADER
This is technically the truth since I do trade stocks. However, there are usually a lot of stupid follow-up statements that follow, like “oh you must be having a rough go of it” or “wow, I’m surprised you have any money left.” Because clearly, no one knows what shorting is. And most people who do know what it is think it’s illegal (it’s always funny how the government tries its hardest to make things it doesn’t like seem illegal to the general public, even though they are perfectly legal – like shorting and poker). Telling people you’re a stock trader is like telling people you play poker for a living, except it sounds a lot better.

For when I’m feeling really creative and want to chat I’m a…
BOOKMAKER
I particularly like this one because most people think that you actually make books. I’ve been asked if I bind the pages to the cover, if I design the covers, and even if I’m actually writing the book itself (uh no that would be an ‘author’). You can really get a lot of people going on this and it can be pretty entertaining.

Anyway, I guess from here on out I’ll have to tell people I’m a futures trader. Although I think I’ll still keep bookmaker in my repertoire for when I get really bored with the people around me.

As much as I kind of despise how I’m viewed by a lot of people, I can honestly sit here and say I do not have a single regret for doing this and I would do it again in a heartbeat. Ever since I started making more money playing poker in the evenings than I did consulting during the day I’ve wanted to give pro poker a shot. Being young with no one to depend on me for money or food, if I went broke it wouldn’t be too catastrophic and I could just restart my career. Unfortunately, I grossly underestimated the negative social implications of the poker career and I kind of wish I had been better prepared for it going in. I guess you can’t feel it until you live it.

Others think I’m getting a job because I’m losing money or I’m broke. That’s not true at all. 2009 has gotten off to a great start. March was my best month ever and Q1 was my best quarter ever. The past three weeks have also been one of my top three or four three-week stretches as well. I am a much better poker player now than I was a year ago at this time. I’m getting a trading job because I want to trade. The only jobs I applied for were trading jobs. I’m not quitting poker. I’m just adding trading. Poker will be pushed to the side, but you’ll still find me online on the weekends and evenings during the week.

To me, trading seems like a much bigger and much more complex poker game. I need a new challenge and trading will provide that for me on a daily basis. I’m confident I have the right personality, background, and education to succeed as a trader and am really looking forward to getting started.

For now, I just need to figure out how to spend these next two months. Europe, anyone?

The Dead, Tourney Poker

2009-05-07T00:51:00.002-05:00

Wow I've been pretty bad about posting lately. Just been busy with a lot of stuff I guess...Also, why don't I have the option to change my font anymore?

Anyway, Monday night I went to the (Grateful) Dead concert at All-State Arena in Rosemont. I've never been a huge Dead fan but I like their music and thought it would be cool to go check them out even though they're not quite the same without Jerry Garcia. Honestly, the concert was a little boring and near the end I was wanting it to be over. I guess the show got good reviews from Greg Kot at the Chicago Tribune but I just have to disagree. The best parts of the show were Space & Drums (which, ironically, was Kot's least favorite part) and watching all the messed up 50 somethings staggering around. Aside from Space & Drums I really don't like having two drummers on stage. If you want to have a drummer and a percussionist, then fine. At times it can just sound really muddled and sloppy. Also, I was probably the most over-dressed person there wearing sandals, ratty jeans and polo shirt. That's saying something. The only time I'd ever see the Dead again is if they were playing at an outdoor festival, and even then I probably wouldn't stay for the entire set.

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I am so glad I never really got into poker tournaments. Cash games are so much better and I really just sort of feel sorry for all the tournament pros out there - who in my mind, must be some of the most miserable people on earth. Yes, this is another complaining post. I decided to play the $15k guarantee on Stars tonight just to kill some time (while simultaneously 3 tabling heads up cash). I thought I played really well and had some solid reads on a number of players at my table. Of course, my ultimate demise came when we were 34 people away from the money and I was sitting on a slightly below average stack. I pick up KK under the gun and make it $500. Folds around to the small blind who makes it $1,600. I decide to just shove over the top for about $6,000 more and he thinks for a bit before finally calling. He has AK and I'm in great shape...until the flop. The ace hits the flop and I'm sent to the rail. Had I held up there I would've had about $14,000 and in great position to make some noise. However, it was not to be. Again.

Now, I hardly ever play any tournaments, but to give you an idea of my tournament ineptitude, here are my results over the past couple years...

2009 to date
3 tournaments, 0 cashes

2008
11 tournaments, 0 cashes

2007
8 tournaments, 2 cashes, 1 final table (7th place Pot-Limit Omaha)

2006
20 tournaments, 5 cashes (the last year I was profitable in tournaments)

2005
9 tournaments, 2 cashes

And here I am thinking of going to Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker this summer. Granted, I'm not exactly Mr Tournament Poker here as there are guys who play more tournaments in a week than I have over the past four years. I guess it would be fun to do and this would be a good year to give it a shot.

Blackhawks 1 My stomach 0, Poker

2009-04-17T02:20:00.001-05:00

Calgary...seriously. You guys are 0-5 against the Blackhawks this season. Get it together. I don't want to have ulcers at 26, but I'm starting to think that might be where we're headed here. However, this is really the Bulls fault. How in the hell did they make the playoffs?

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Poker has gotten off to a pretty rough start this month. In fact, this is my worst start of a month in about a year - something I'm not very pleased with especially after how things went last month. Anyway, I've been re-evaluating a lot of hands I've played and I noticed I'm forcing action with a lot of guys I shouldn't be forcing action on. I tried out a new strategy against these types of players today and it seemed to work out fairly well so hopefully we have that little issue fixed. I've also ran pretty poorly. In heads up it's very rare to have an AA v KK, for instance, all in preflop. Before this month I think I had seen it four times ever (with me on the losing end 3 times). This month it's happened twice. I lost both. I've had a knack for getting monster hands all-in preflop only to have them completely crushed (e.g. QQ v KK, AK v AA, TT v JJ etc). So, while I'm certainly an underdog in those hands, it's just unlucky that I'm getting QQ all in preflop against KK instead of AK or JJ. But, I guess that's how it goes sometimes. That's not to say it isn't incredibly frustrating though.

Tonight I'm hoping I had a breakthrough and build off the momentum of the monster session I had this evening. I think this was my 2nd or 3rd best session of the year so it's definitely a confidence booster. I'd like to share the final hand of the evening and my thought process. It's a fairly interesting hand with a pretty decent sized pot. Again, I've changed the name of my opponent.

FullTiltPoker Game #11726791677: Table Suede (heads up) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:18:44 ET - 2009/04/17

Seat 1: Mucked Nuts ($535.25)

Seat 2: Villain ($584.85)

Villain posts the small blind of $2

Mucked Nuts posts the big blind of $4

The button is in seat #2

Villain is an ok regular who is capable of making moves and can get out of line from time to time. However, I would say for the most part he is pretty solid, but certainly has exploitable leaks in his game (as do I and everyone else)

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Mucked Nuts [Tc As]

Villain raises to $12

Mucked Nuts raises to $38 – Here I elect to re-raise for value. Villain had been defending almost all of my preflop three-bets and insta-folding to continuation bets

Villain calls $26

*** FLOP *** [Qh 9d Qd] – Not the greatest flop. Very drawy but I continuation bet anyway and hope to end the hand right here

Mucked Nuts bets $48

Villain calls $48 – With the call he can have any number of hands…

*** TURN *** [Qh 9d Qd] [Ac] – great turn card for me although the board is still scary

Mucked Nuts checks – I decide to slow down here

Villain bets $80 – this is somewhat of a curious bet and I’ll elaborate on it later

Mucked Nuts calls $80 – with top pair I’m going to call a less than half-pot bet

*** RIVER *** [Qh 9d Qd Ac] [3s] – very benign river card

Mucked Nuts has 15 seconds left to act

Mucked Nuts checks – I check here hoping to just showdown with no further action

Villain has 15 seconds left to act

Villain bets $336 – a whopper of a bet. Just over pot-sized. Wow.

Mucked Nuts has 15 seconds left to act

Mucked Nuts has requested TIME – I time it down for about 40 seconds debating what to do here. First of all, my hand is practically face up. He has to think that I likely have an ace. However, the bet is so big, it looks bluffy. That said, I believe this opponent is capable of making a gigantic bet to disguise it as a bluff, especially considering that I believe that he believes I have an ace. Secondly, I replay the hand in my head. Villain gave off a tell on the flop (yes, believe it or not, there are tells in online poker) – he called VERY quickly – which led me to believe that he might not have a queen. Additionally, it seems like his turn bet is somewhat small for betting a Q for value, especially on a somewhat scary board (unless he has Q9 or AQ or something) and his river shove seems way too big to get value from a Q (especially if he has AQ or Q9). However, I also think he’s capable of making those sized bets to make them look like bluffs. Ugh, this was incredibly difficult but I just felt with how fast he called the flop, in addition to the bet sizing on the turn and river it seemed like he bricked off a draw so I called, but I think it’s very close here and there are certainly times when I would fold this.

Mucked Nuts calls $336

*** SHOW DOWN ***

Villain shows [Ts Js] a pair of Queens – and sure enough he was bluffing his missed draw

Mucked Nuts shows [Tc As] two pair, Aces and Queens

Mucked Nuts wins the pot ($1,003.50) with two pair, Aces and Queens

Had he taken some more time on the flop and adjusted his bet sizing on the turn and river (especially the river), I would’ve folded. A bet of like $125 on the turn and then a river shove of $325 would’ve probably got me off the hand. That would’ve looked much more legit.

Now I just need to hope that future opponents don’t read this and do the same thing (except with an actual hand)…I’ll just have to be one step ahead I guess.

Bets with Ben

2009-04-15T21:28:00.005-05:00

I thought I would do a little review of a few bets I have with my roommate Ben.

First, as you might remember, back in January I told Ben I would take the other side of any sports bet he wanted, with no vig, as long as the line was published and verifiable on sportsbook.com. I accepted action up to $200/bet. Well, after 3 months and 458 total bets, we have decided to end the experiment. Ben finished down a total of $76.63, which I would consider basically breaking even. At first, he was making a killing betting against DePaul in men's basketball, as they at one point were 4-19 against the spread. However, he continued to increase his size, which eventually ended in a $200 misstep in the Big East Tournament when he took Cincinnati -8. DePaul won by 9. That was basically the downfall and he didn't do much more betting after that. I did get a sweet DePaul hat for free though (thanks, Ben!).

And now for the other, and much more exciting bet I currently have running with Ben. This bet was made back in the fall and is soon to near completion. Here are the details...

1. Of the Chicago Bulls, Chicago Bears, and Chicago Blackhawks: TWO must make the playoffs and at least ONE must make it to the second round for Ben to win. Any other combination and I win.

Well, much to my dismay, the Chicago Bulls somehow started to play well and have clinched the all-important playoff berth in the Eastern Conference. How this happened I have no idea. So now, I am on the ropes because the Blackhawks have home ice advantage in the playoffs against Calgary - a team they went 4-0 against this season. Game One is tomorrow at 7:30pm.

So what do the winner and loser get?
The loser must eat 12 Blazin' wings (bone-in) and 6 wings (bone in or boneless) of his choice at Buffalo Wild Wings. The winner gets 12 wings (bone-in or boneless) of his choice. The loser also pays for all of it.

As of right now, this bet is looking particularly bad for me. I'm hoping the Blackhawks come out flat in the playoffs and the Flames are able to pull the upset. It's my only hope, otherwise...goodbye stomach.

More updates to come in the near future. Go Calgary.

Year to date so far

2009-04-03T00:26:00.002-05:00

I haven't done an update in a while so here it goes.

On the poker front, I'm pleased to say that March was my best month ever, and not only that, but the first quarter of 2009 was also my best quarter ever. I'm pretty happy with the progress I've made but there's still a lot of work to do. I'd like to play even bigger so I need to keep cranking away and improving my game. Of course, now that I've mentioned this, I'm already down for April, but it's less than a buy-in so I'm basically "breakeven" especially for high variance heads-up. While I was playing today, I remembered a funny yet accurate quote a very good heads-up player once told me...

"Against some guys, thinking is a leak."

A lot of the really bad players do some incredibly bizarre things that are just completely out of the realm of comprehension, and if you try to find methods to their madness you'll just drive yourself crazy. Don't think. Just play.

On the trading front, I'm also pleased to say that the first quarter was my best quarter of trading ever. And of course, now that I've mentioned this, I'm down for April thus far. I made a bad decision to short the market two days ago and yeah, I might have to cover it on Friday. I actually think we might've hit the bottom. The market looked like it was about to roll over at the end of last week, but the buyers swooped in (or the sellers got tired) this week and the S&P has shown a lot of resilience, when in the past if the market showed strength, the sellers would just take control and drive it down. So, it will be interesting to see what happens from here.

I'm pleased with how the year is going so far and hopefully I can just continue to build and improve in the second quarter. I've had a number of interviews and I'm still trying to find a trading firm I think would fit me the best. Despite hitting my poker peak to date, I'm still looking for a change. The poker lifestyle isn't really wearing me down, it's just bringing me down. I'm ready to get back to having a normal life, giving up some of the perks of being a pro poker player, and exchanging them for the perks of a "real" job. So, we'll see how I progress on that front as well.

On all fronts, hopefully Q2 is even better than Q1.

Pitches to television execs

2009-03-24T22:21:00.011-05:00

This is the second and final part of a post I made back on March 9. To recap, a few of my friends told me that I should try out for a reality TV show or have a reality TV show based on my life. First of all, I don't think my life is interesting enough for it's own show, nor do I have a volatile enough personality to be on an already running show. Therefore, I think I could host my own show. Over the past two weeks I've been pitching ideas to various networks and I thought it would be fun to share my ideas with the rest of the world. I have six potential shows I could star in and I'll list them in order from least likely to most likely. Here we go....

Show #1
This reality series will be somewhat of a spinoff of the E! hit Dr. 90210, which "takes you into the world of Beverly Hills' most beautiful" and films various ideas for plastic surgery and whatnot. I'll be honest, I've never even seen the show, but that just means my show won't be skewed by the original. I present to you....

Dr. 60614
That's right, Dr. 60614 will take you into the world of Lincoln Park's most beautiful trixies, with plenty of drama, slicing, dicing, and silicone; hosted by me, "Dr." Christopher M. Kozak.

Show #2
Based on the hit MTV reality show From G's to Gents, which aims to take 12 "G's" out of the hood and transform them into gentlemen, this show seeks to take those with gambling problems and transform them into upstanding, cash-saving men. So, ladies, do you have a significant other who blows the rent money at the track every month? Is your husband unable to provide for your family because he spends too much time at the casino? If so, send these lost souls to me, and I'll stop the degeneracy (or at the very least, make it profitable for me) on my new show...

From Degens to Gents

Show #3
You've seen the first few seasons of the VH1 hit, Rock of Love with Brett Michaels. This season, the show apparently takes place on a bus, and is appropriately titled Rock of Love Bus. I guess the bad economy even affects washed-up 80s rockers. However, I know we can do better than a bus. We can at least have our program in some type of building. In accordance with my nickname, HOU$E - because I'm built like one, obviously - I present to you...

Rock of Love HOU$E

Show #4
Sticking with whole nickname thing, A&E's Flip This House teaches folks to buy property, fix it up, and quickly sell it for a nice profit. I can't imagine it's working too well right now though. Therefore, I invite you check out my new reality show....

Flip This HOU$E
...which is basically just me hosting a talk show upside down

Show #5
Back to the VH1 shows now. Starting last month, a dating show called For the Love of Ray J premiered. This show is similar in format to Rock of Love and Flavor of Love. Here is what Ray J himself had to say about it:

"I've been in this game a long time... I've been with a lot of women but I'm ready to get out. I want to do this show to find a ride or die chick, a chick that makes me want to get out of the game."

You know what Ray J? I couldn't agree with you more. That's why I am starting my own reality series...

For the Love of C.K.

Show #6
And finally, being a not-stupid (most of the time) human being who generally makes good decisions and knows how to deal with conflict, this next show is almost a gimmie for me. Ever since the cancellation of Hogan Knows Best, television has had a dearth of shows about men who can take charge and dish out an ass-kicking. Last but certainly not least....

Kozak Knows Best

So, television execs, please feel free to contact me about any or all of these reality show ideas. I think we'll have some very profitable brands coming up in the near future. I'm looking forward to working with all of you.

"Ingram to bat the ball away...Williams to tie it with a three! He Does!"

2009-03-19T12:11:00.001-05:00

Let the madness begin

This is what I get for wearing green on St Patricks Day

2009-03-18T02:20:00.002-05:00

Me on ABC7 Chicago
Click on "Luck of the Irish? 70 degrees in March"

Karen interviewed me for about three minutes and I figured they'd cut it down to like ten seconds but they cut it down to about two seconds! And yes, I realize I need to buy some sunglasses.

That said, I think we all agree that there needs to be more Chris Kozak in the mainstream media. Next stop, Charles Gibson, then Larry King Live. Bring it!

Friday night action, NCAA Tourney

2009-03-15T23:59:00.002-05:00

Because of the St. Patrick's Saturday of all-day drinking, I decided to not go out at all on Friday night in order to preserve my energy (and liver) so I could be at 100% the next day. So, with nothing to do, I thought I would check out the Friday night action on Full Tilt - which is something I almost never do because I hardly ever play on the weekends. I was not disappointed. Most of my opponents played pretty poorly, which isn't that unusual. What was unusual, however, were the number of people who asked me for rebates after I had busted them. On Friday night, three people asked for their money back claiming I took their entire bankroll, or because they have a problem, etc...I can't remember the last time anyone asked for money back. It's definitely happened before, but it has been a long time and on Friday night three people asked.

Below is the conversation I had with one of my opponents (I've changed his screen name so I don't feel like I'm outing anyone on here)....

Opponent: thats fcuking rigged
Mucked Nuts: ummmm
Mucked Nuts: you did suck out with K9 remember
Opponent: bro every flop u hit hard
Mucked Nuts: not exactly
Mucked Nuts: "bro"
Opponent: well look can u ship me some back lol
Mucked Nuts: sorry
Opponent: man just 20 please
Opponent: i cant belive it it was my whole ro;;
Opponent: roll
Mucked Nuts: i cant. if i give you money then i have to give everyone money
Opponent: ill keep quiet man
Mucked Nuts: and then i'll be begging
Opponent: bro u snaped me plz
Opponent: its all i got
Mucked Nuts: im sorry man. i cant do it
Mucked Nuts: just my policy
Opponent: fair enough
Opponent: not even to make someones day ay
Mucked Nuts: ugh youre killing me here
Opponent: lease man
Opponent: u have 1000s
Opponent: i only have ever had that
Opponent: ill ship u back i promise
Opponent: consider it as a loan
Mucked Nuts: well i mean no offense but i cant trust anyone on the internet to pay me back
Mucked Nuts: how about i give you 10
Opponent: i totally understand
Opponent: but ill even do a contract through chip me u[p
Mucked Nuts: for a sng
Opponent: can it be 20 do i can do a 10 dollar bounty and a 6 dollar 1
Opponent: and ill give you a bit extra promise\

I was all set to send him $10 but he left the table so I didn't end up giving him anything. I really shouldn't be sending anyone any money anyway, but to be honest I did feel kind of bad for him. Of course, it was also about 2:30am at this point so perhaps my brain was a little off.

For the session as a whole, I played a few thousand hands between 11pm and 3:15am and ended up a good chunk so hopefully I can keep it going. As a result of this, I didn't actually get to sleep until after 4 am so my day of drinking got off to a late start, which was probably a good thing.

----------------------

It's been a few years since I've been able to enjoy watching the NCAA Tournament Selection Show. Last year the Illini sucked and didn't make the tourney. Two years ago, it was a nerve-wracking experience just seeing if we'd get in (which we did as a #12 seed vs. Virginia Tech).

This year, I was pleasantly surprised to see us get a #5 seed but it kind of sucks that we have to go all the way out to Portland to play. Thankfully, our first round opponent, a very tough Western Kentucky team, has to travel out there as well. But, if we're fortunate enough to advance, we'd likely play Gonzaga, which will be a very tall order. Plus, for those who don't know, they are from Spokane, Wash. Not a very far distance at all.

I had such low expectations going into this year that just making the tournament is a huge success in my eyes. However, I've upped the stakes a bit and now would like at least a first round win. Anything after that is just icing on the cake.

However, this is where Illinois basketball should be every season - with a high seed in the NCAA Tourney. And with the big recruits we have coming in over the next few years, I expect absolutely nothing less, and in fact expect much more.

I-L-L...

Bracket Prediction

2009-03-15T16:52:00.002-05:00

I predict if Illinois gets a #6 seed, Kansas will be the #3 in our pod. Otherwise, I believe Illinois will be a 7.

The Joys of Being Short, Reality TV

2009-03-09T23:42:00.003-05:00

On Friday, I received some bad news from my broker. He told me they could no longer borrow the shares for my short position in HEV and I was forced to cover at $2.50/share. Sadly, my dream of riding one of my short positions all the way to $0.00 will have to wait for another day. I had a great chance with this one, and quite honestly, the only thing that could've stopped it was this buy-in because $0 is precisely where this pig is headed. Just watch.

----------------------

Part I
Today I came to the sad realization that I watch too much reality television. The only "normal" shows I religiously watch are 30 Rock and Entourage. I can't even watch The Office anymore because it kind of makes me uncomfortable and quite honestly, I never thought it was really that hilarious in the first place. Plus, it's hard for me to relate to any of the characters on The Office, other than maybe Jim - but just because he's not a total weirdo like everyone else. On 30 Rock, I see a lot myself (for better and worse) in many of the characters - most notably Jack (Alec Baldwin) and Liz (Tina Fey). In fact, I feel like the only character I can't relate to in any way is Tracy (Tracy Morgan). Maybe this helps me enjoy the show more. Or maybe it's just because the writing is second to none.

Now, by this logic you would assume that I like certain reality shows because I relate to the people on them. I really think nothing could be further from the truth. I don't think there is a single person on any reality show I've watched that I can really relate to at all. For the record, the reality shows I watch include:

Tool Academy - Maybe I'm a tool, but not in the same way as these dolts.

Hell's Kitchen - I'm a mediocre cook, have never worked in a restaurant, never will work in a restaurant (hopefully), but somehow find the show interesting. What can I say? I like food. I feel like in order to be on this show, however, you must meet at least 3 of 4 requirements: 1. Be ugly 2. Be stupid 3. Be overweight 4. Smoke two packs a day. From what it seems like, knowing how to cook is just an added bonus.

American Idol - I like the episodes early in the season with all the bad contestants. Plus, Simon is pretty hilarious and is the one who can actually verbalize what the rest of us are thinking.

From G's to Gents - I am the complete opposite of every single person on this show, yet watch it anyway.

What I've realized is that I like shows with "fake" people (aka characters) if I can relate to them. I like shows with "real" people, if they're complete morons. I guess I'm one of those people who just enjoys a good trainwreck, and gets a sick pleasure watching it devolve into utter chaos.

For Part II of the series, I will come up with various working titles of reality shows that I could star in myself.

So much for that...

2009-03-05T10:29:00.002-06:00

Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all currently trading below their previous lows. No seabreezes for me. Stay tuned for the panic sell.

Doug Kass, you silly man

2009-03-05T00:17:00.004-06:00

Doug Kass, a noted short-seller and the founder and president of Seabreeze Partners said the market bottomed out this week and we will only go higher from here. I happen to disagree with Mr. Kass and propose a little wager. As you might remember, last winter, in defiance of the clowns from Bernstein (who said the S&P would close at 1460 at the end of 2008 - good one, guys), I said that I would wear and eat a hat made out of various meats stapled together if in fact, the S&P closed at or above 1460. I didn't lose too much sleep over it.

So here is what I propose to Mr. Kass, who I am sure is an AVID reader of Mucked Nuts:

If the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P do not trade below 6,661.74; 1,312.98; and 692.30 respectively before the end of 2009, I will order a Seabreeze as my first drink at every bar I go to for 3 months straight. That's right: EVERY bar. I can even work out a program where I can send a phone photo to a designated "witness" to make sure that I am adhering to my punishment.

Clearly, there is a little more risk associated with this one, but that's what will make it more fun. I knew I had those idiots from Bernstein smoked the second they said those stupid words. This one is more up in the air (although I think I will still be right when all is said and done).

Why I'll be crying myself to sleep the next few nights

2009-03-03T11:05:00.004-06:00

In a previous post, I talked about one of my weaknesses trading is taking a profit too quickly. Hence, I present to you Exhibit A: The UltraShort Real Estate ETF.
Yes, I booked a 22% gain in just under a week, and this ETF is extremely volatile, but I had received no sell signal and decided to dump it anyway because I was scared/uneasy, whatever. As punishment for my jumpiness, I now see that I held until right now, I'd have a 72% gain and an extra $27/share. Ouch. Also, if the market has a panic sell in the next few days (which I think is very possible and am very hopeful for so I can start buying the oversold market), because of the leverage, this thing could easily go to $160 or more.

Most fun I've had in a long time

2009-03-02T21:28:00.002-06:00

So I spent this past weekend in Boston visiting friends and checking the city out for the first time. I have to say, I came away very impressed and think Boston is one of the most unique cities in the U.S. (right up there with San Francisco). On Friday, I spent the afternoon walking around the Back Bay and Beacon Hill neighborhoods, both of which were very nice. Back Bay reminds me a bit of Lincoln Park in Chicago, and the main thoroughfare, Newbury St, is somewhat similar to Halsted St between Webster and North.

There is no equivalent Chicago neighborhood for Beacon Hill though. In fact, there might not be a similar neighborhood anywhere (as far as I've seen). Beacon Hill is a very hilly (what a surprise), colonial/Euro-style neighborhood with red brick sidewalks, narrow streets and seems like such a cool place (and likely incredibly expensive). Yes, I have a huge crush on Beacon Hill. What can I say?

Amazingly enough, I was able to part ways with Beacon Hill and headed across the river to Cambridge and walked around MIT for a bit. Generally, nothing makes me feel older than walking around a college campus, but I didn't feel too out of place at MIT - except for the fact that I'm white. Unfortunately, I didn't have enough time to head up to Harvard, so I traveled back over the bridge and checked out Boston University. Here, I felt super old - like the creepy 8th year senior who just can't get his act together but somehow has over 200 credit hours. One thing I found interesting at BU was how a bunch of the fraternities and sororities are cramped together in these red stone buildings, literally touching each other, instead of the quarter- or half-acre mansions commonly seen at more rural schools.

On Friday night we ate at Union Bar and Grille (I had the cod - it was excellent) and then went for drinks at Clink; a very fancy hotel restaurant/bar, which has a lounge area that takes up the entire 2nd floor lobby area. So, plenty of room to stretch out, breathe, and actually have a conversation without saying, "excuse me? what? what did you say???" every five seconds. I'd say the clientele was a mix of 20-something to 50-something professionals all dressed to impress - less one individual who was decked-out in a tight orange Nascar t-shirt. Clearly, this guy was a bit out of place at the onset, but this wouldn't have been that big of a deal had he not decided to take his shirt off and start rubbing his nipples on everyone he was with. Needless to say, I thought this was hilarious and figured I should take some pictures with my phone. However, I forgot that my camera has a flash and his group started looking at me like I was some kind of nutjob. Umm....hello. Your friend is topless. Although, I suppose I was taking pictures...

On Saturday, we had a plan to turn our Freedom Trail walking tour into a Freedom Trail/Bar Crawl. The bar crawl portion was a massive fail as we only stopped at one bar - the Cheers Bar, which was pretty crowded, but actually kind of cool. However, I was a little confused as to why they were playing Ace of Base and the Eurythmics at 2 in the afternoon. The Freedom Trail itself was pretty good, despite the frigid temperatures. I'd say the highlights were seeing the site of the Boston Massacre, the old cemeteries which housed the tombstones of the likes of Paul Revere, Sam Adams and Mother Goose, the lobster bisque soup at Faneuil Hall, and the massive brownie I got at Mike's Pastry, which has the trademark "Ben's Chili Bowl line outside the door at all hours of the day."

Saturday night we met up with the HBS barcrawl for a few drinks at a place I can't remember the name of. However, I do remember getting hassled at the door because of my Illinois license with the renewal sticker on the back. The owner of the bar told us that "anyone could make that and put it on the back, but I'll let you guys slide this time." Thank you, State of Illinois, for somehow finding a way to punish the good drivers too.

Despite this near setback, I was happy to bring the bearfight (an Irish car bomb followed immediately by a jager bomb) to Boston, as we downed a few, along with some other various shots and beers. I seem to have lost my credit card receipt from this bar, so I'm a little curious to see just how bad the damage was.

After, we stumbled over to a bar called 21st Amendment where the drinking continued and we crashed the back room, which was hosting a 40th birthday party for some guy named Ric. I don't know who Ric is or if he was even there, but I do know that he had a giant posterboard card for the guests to sign. Ten minutes later, half the messages on the card were from us with two or three being stupid rhymes written by me. For example...

"I traveled so far...to be in this bar. Happy B-Day Ric. You're the man!"

Anyway, it turned out to be one of those nights where I drank enough to make dancing seem like not that bad of an idea, so congratulations to everyone got to witness that rare occurrence.

The next morning, I was groggy enough to call United to see if I could switch my not-so-early 1:30pm flight to later in the day. I was willing to pay the $150 to do so. They didn't have any open direct flights so I just sucked it up, threw on a hooded sweatshirt and cabbed it over to the airport, which was probably a good thing because Boston got about a foot of snow later in the day so I would've paid $150 extra to get on a flight only for it to be canceled.

Feeling like absolute death, I had the joy of getting admonished by the loudest and bitchiest security line person ever. Instead of asking me to remove my hooded sweatshirt (apparently the fact that it has a hood makes this a removable item since I've never had to tear off any sweaters in the past - and yes, I knew I had to take it off but didn't really feel like it) she announces to the entire line, "anyone wearing a brown hoodie needs to remove it IMMEDIATELY!" I wanted to strangle her with my sleeves but didn't really have the energy to do so, nor did I want to get charged with domestic terrorism and sent to Guantanamo Bay (although the weather would be pretty nice). However, I did get her back by not removing the liquids from my carry-on bag. Ha. Eat that!

So, I get up to the gate right as they're boarding the plane so...no time to eat any food. My seat was assigned at the gate and as expected, I get a middle seat (although, it was in Economy Plus so that somewhat made up for it). When I got home, I scarfed down a quick lunch, went into my room, and CRASH.

I had such a great time and can't wait to go back - maybe in April or May so I can catch a game at Fenway. I'm not sure if a March trip is going to happen unless anyone wants to go skiing in California or Utah (I can probably get free or deeply discounted lodging) or go to Arizona for spring training.

I heart Rick Santelli

2009-02-19T23:37:00.001-06:00

Rick Santelli is the only person with half a brain on CNBC. You have to love his passion and the reaction of all the traders in the background. I agree 100% with everything Santelli says. Down with the market!

A letter to the girl upstairs

2009-02-19T01:56:00.002-06:00

Dear Girl Who Lives In the Unit Above Me,

I know you really enjoy having sex. I mean, who doesn't? But seriously, it sounds like a herd of buffalo trampling around up there. I'm scared the ceiling might collapse and this mound of flesh is just going to fall right on my desk. Can you at least get some padding for your headboard or put your bed on carpet so it doesn't move and bang around so much?

Sincerely,
Disgusted and Scared in Unit 1

Poker, Trading, Life

2009-02-17T23:25:00.008-06:00

I've been trying to put in more hands this month than I have in months past. A year ago I was putting in anywhere from 30k to 40k hands a month. However, ever since October, I have yet to be able to crack the 20k barrier. I'm not overly concerned about this because I think I actually play better when I play less and my winrate has actually increased a lot since then. Last month I played just over 18k hands, although 6,600 of them were in a single-day 14 hour degen-fest that left me seeing four blurry images of everything and an overheated 23 inch monitor. So far this month I've played a little over 11,000 hands, so we'll see if we can get to the 20k mark (at this rate, probably not). Another hang up is that action can be brutally slow at $400NL heads-up and there have been times I've been sitting for over 90 minutes waiting for someone to sit with me. However, I'm fine being patient and picking my spots. I just wish it didn't have to take so long sometimes.

Anyway, the last couple of days have been sort of interesting. Yesterday I swung about $3k but thankfully ended on the good end of it. The culprit was an overly aggressive guy who was playing just about every hand. So, whenever I picked up monster hands like 10-10 and JJ I want to be playing for stacks preflop against this type of player. Of course, when I had those hands, he had JJ and QQ. Bleh. However, I was able to recoup it all and more (but not as much as I could've) so all's well that ends well I suppose.

On Sunday, I decided to play in the PokerStars Sunday Million Tournament. This week they had a guaranteed $2.5 million prize pool with $286k for first. Like most people, I wouldn't mind having an extra $286k so I decided to give it a shot. Of course, I totally suck at tourneys and haven't cashed in one since 2007. That said, I've only played about 15 tourneys since then - which is fewer than what some tourney pros play in a single day. Also, it's not uncommon to go 20-25 tourneys without a cash, which is why I think it would be so hard to be a tourney pro. The variance is just so huge and you're so reliant upon a deep finish since only the top 4-5 spots pay out the big bucks to give you the ability to go 20 tourneys without a cash.

So, the downfall began near the end of level four, right before the first break. I flatted a middle position raise with AQ diamonds on the button. The flop came A7T with two hearts. The raiser bet out for about a quarter of the pot and I decided to just call. Another ten came on the turn and the raiser made it about 1/5th pot. I just called again. The river brought a total brick and he bet about half pot. Alarm bells were sort of going off in my head now, but I made the call and he flipped up QT for trips, leaving me with about half my original stack. I was pretty pissed about how I played the hand. There are two ways I could've done this better:

1. Re-raise preflop and fold to a shove.

Or even better...

2. Raise on the flop. His line was really weak and I should've raised to fold out draws, second pair etc. If he had just called, then I could be pretty confident he had a weaker ace and then ideally I could just take him to value town on the turn and river.

It sucks that I had him totally dominated and got two-outered but that seems to be my M.O. in tourneys. My ultimate demise came at the beginning of level five when I had about 4,800 left with the blinds at 200/400. An active player opened for 1,200 in the cutoff and I picked up A8 diamonds in the small blind. I thought for a bit and decided to ship it, praying for a fold. Of course, he snapped called with QQ, so I'm not in great shape, but he's only 2 to 1. A Q32 flop basically sealed the deal and I wasn't able to hit a runner-runner 4-5 for the straight and it was see ya later, Chris.

Tourneys make me want to pound my head against a wall.

----------------------

Trading has been off to a decent start here in 2009. I've been short the overall market, some individual stocks, and also have been in and out of a couple long positions. This year I'm keeping a spreadsheet of every trade I make and I think so far it is helping me to become a better trader. I still have the tendency to be too trigger-happy when booking a gain, and that's something I'll need to work on. However, that's a lot better than not being able to pull the trigger fast enough when taking a loss. No one ever got hurt taking a profit.

Some of my positions are short the S&P 500 by being long SDS (2x inverse S&P ETF), short HEV, short APOL and long GIGM.

1. Ener-1 Corp. (HEV)
This company makes no money and I don't even think it even makes any products. They say they make lithium ion car batteries. This dubious claim, plus the fact that gasoline is inexpensive again, makes me believe this thing is going straight to $0. This one is a huge pain in the ass to short, as it is almost impossible to borrow shares, but I was fortunate enough to be able to back at the end of 2008. As you can see, there is a nice breakdown on decent volume at the beginning of the year, and it's sort of been languishing between $4 and $5 since then. I'd like to see a breakdown below $4 as the next sign of this baby going lower.

2. Apollo Group (APOL)
You might know this one better as the University of Phoenix. I have long despised the for-profit education industry, and I believe this is the final bubble to burst. I guess when the market tanked, everyone figured people would lose their jobs and then go back to "school" at one of these "education" companies so investors just plowed money into these stocks. Other good short candidates include DeVry (DV) and Career Education (CECO). I chose APOL, and have been short since mid-January. I like how it's formed a double top, which is often indicative of a bearish trend to come. I would've liked to see more volume though, and a close below the 50-day moving average would be a welcome sight.

3. GigaMedia (GIGM)
In all of the carnage, some stocks have actually been going up. GigaMedia is one of them. GIGM has been consolidating nicely and now is in a full-fledged "rising bottom" pattern. I bought at the beginning of February on the huge volume day. There was no news (that I saw) to accompany this volume so I'm hoping I've jumped on the coattails of the insider traders who know what's going on. Time will tell. Other stocks that exhibit this pattern that I would consider buying include Silver Wheaton (SLW), Yamana Gold (AUY), Alaska Air (ALK) and Quest Diagnostics (DGX).

----------------------
As for life updates, I'm still looking for jobs at trading firms. I've only applied to a few places, but they're almost all options market making firms. I think I'm going to start applying to these "true prop shops" where the perk/downside is your total compensation is 100% performance-based with no salary. This kind of turned me off a bit at first, but then I realized that my entire life has been 100% performance-based for the last year and a half so I'm pretty used to the pressure and stress of that lifestyle. Also, many of these places specialize in trading equities, which is by far where I have the most experience, so I think I might be a good fit at one of those places. Just need to send those resumes in.

Also, I'm going out to Boston next weekend, which should be pretty exciting. I've never been there and it's been a city I've wanted to see for some time now. So far, my new years resolution of going on a trip every quarter is looking pretty good. I went on two in January and now I have this one coming up at the end of February. I think I might adjust it to just go on a trip every month. Spring Training in Arizona, anyone?

Illini > Hoosiers (but then again, who isn't this season?)

2009-02-16T01:46:00.002-06:00

It might not be any surprise to anyone, but I have always hated Indiana University - especially their basketball team. However, I typically make it a point to root against them in every sport. Today, my Illini finished a regular season sweep of the Hoosiers in men's basketball. This isn't really much to brag about, as Indiana is having quite possibly their worst season ever and has lost 14 of their last 15 games. However, I will never turn down the chance to relish an Illini victory over the Hoosiers no matter how bad they are.

Here is a quote from Illini first-year junior college transfer Dominique Keller:

"I've only been in this rivalry for one year, and I can tell you right now, I do not like this school," Keller said. "I don't like the coach, and I don't like the fans. As a matter of fact, I don't like the gym. It's just something about Indiana I just don't like. You can quote me on that."

Amen, 'Nique. You and every other Illini.

Forbes: Chicago 3rd Most Miserable City

2009-02-10T17:01:00.006-06:00

Last night I was surfing the internet for a few minutes and came across another "legendary ranking" from Forbes Magazine. Forbes seems to have a ranking for everything...from best public universities (where somehow the University of Michigan is ranked #15 and New College of Florida is #3) to top suburbs to live well, to drunken cities, to best cities for singles blah blah blah. I'm looking forward to the Forbes Worst Stock Picks issue. Oh wait, that's basically every stock they tell you to buy at the beginning of each year. Anyway, last night they unveiled their Top 10 Most Miserable Cities.

After reading the article I just had to laugh at how absurd it was, and the criteria for which supposedly makes people miserable. Before I begin, the list is as follows...

1. Stockton, Calif.
2. Memphis
3. Chicago
4. Cleveland
5. Modesto, Calif.
6. Flint, Mich.
7. Detroit
8. Buffalo
9. Miami
10. St. Louis

First of all, for Chicago to be in the same company as any of those cities is a complete joke in and of itself. The article begins by stating some of the great aspects of Chicago: A finalist for the 2016 Olympic Games (I'm surprised how the Olympic Committee would choose such a "miserable" place as a finalist), the fact that the Cubs had the most wins in the National League, and of course, our new President, Barack Obama.

However, these positive attributes, which are just the absolute tip of the iceberg, mind you, apparently pale in comparison to the negatives: it snows here in the winter, there's traffic, unemployment is rising, we have a high sales tax, political corruption, the Cubs not winning the World Series (funny how the Cubs are a positive AND a negative), and struggling companies like Motorola, Tribune Co., and Midway Games. Hmmm.

Lousy Weather
Yeah, I get it. It snows here. And yes, it gets cold here too. But you know what? It snows and gets cold in New York and Boston too. But really, the weather is bad for about 2.5 months out of the year, and for how crappy the winter can be, the incredible summer more than makes up for it. Another thing I find interesting is how weather is only considered lousy if it's cold. Many people think that the summers in places like Phoenix, Las Vegas and Atlanta are much more miserable than the winters in Chicago. Would you rather have it be 120 degrees or 20 degrees?

Traffic
When you have a metropolitan area of nearly 10 million people, you're going to have traffic. Is there any city that size anywhere on the planet that doesn't? As for commuting within the city, people really shouldn't have that big of a problem if they're willing to take public transportation. Living in Lincoln Park, I could be downtown in 15 minutes on the El. Same goes for all the gas-guzzling SUV-driving suburban whiners who travel into the city every day. Take the Metra, assclowns.

Rising Unemployment
Umm, hello. The country is in a recession right now. So yeah, unemployment is sort of going up EVERYWHERE. But let's forget about the fact that Chicago has one of the most diversified economies in America and isn't tied to a single industry the way places like Detroit and Las Vegas are. Yeah, that's not important at all....

Sales Tax
At 10.3% Chicago has the highest sales tax in the country. Yeah, that sort of sucks but I don't exactly go out of my way to not go out to eat or stop at the grocery store. In fact, the only way I could see this being a large problem is when you're shopping for a big ticket item and have to drive out to the suburbs to make the purchase. Of course, most people aren't exactly buying new couches every weekend either.

Political Corruption
The (former) governor is mentioned prominently in the article, but last I checked, he runs the state, not the city. Plus, does political corruption actually make individuals miserable? I don't wake up in the morning and have trouble getting out of bed because some alderman was charged with bribery. In fact, I could really give a crap. My street gets plowed, the city is absolutely beautiful (and is probably the cleanest big city in the U.S.), and I can get where I need to go efficiently and safely. I don't give a damn if some construction contract was awarded to one of the mayor's buddies - as long as the construction is worthwhile and adds value to the city I live in.

The Cubs
This one I found most amusing. While the Cubs had a great season, they've still gone 100 years without a World Series. So, it's good and bad. But bad in this case, since the author needed it to be. What I find most interesting is that apparently the Cubs are the only team in Chicago. From what I remember, the White Sox, like the Cubs, won their division and made the playoffs last season too. The White Sox also won the World Series in 2005. The Bears went to the Super Bowl in 2006. The Bulls won six titles in the 90s.

However, what is most appalling is how sports is the only thing that counts as entertainment. Chicago is home to a collection of museums that arguably, is only topped by Washington DC, a theatre scene surpassed only by New York, a music scene that is second to none, the best symphony orchestra in the western hemisphere, and some of the best restaurants and nightlife in the entire world. I'm sure I'm missing something, but there's just too much to try to remember. But hey, I'm sure the people of Flint can say the same thing.

Struggling Companies
Motorola and Tribune Co. have been run into the ground, but Chicago's largest company (in market cap), pharmaceutical giant Abbott Laboratories actually has a higher stock price now than it did at the beginning of 2008. Another Chicago company, you may have heard of it - McDonald's - can make the same claim. Also, Chicago-based Kraft Foods, is now a Dow 30 company as of last fall. Oh, and the mention of Midway Games in the original article? It was just the 135th largest company IN CHICAGO in terms of 2006 revenue and employed just 850 people at the time. Seems like someone was reaching a bit on that one.

The fact is, many companies are struggling everywhere. But with the aforementioned diverse economy, Chicago is not nearly in the dire straits as places like Detroit, Las Vegas, or any other city tied to manufacturing or tourism.

Maybe I'm making too big a deal about this, but when I read the article it was so preposterous I had to write something in defense. All I know is that while I was running outside today in the 64 degree weather, I saw Lake Michigan on my left, the world's most beautiful skyline in front of me, and the feeling I had was the absolute furthest from misery.

Where can I get some Ambien?

2009-02-04T23:01:00.001-06:00

It's still legal, Steve. Please come back.

Back

2009-02-04T22:40:00.002-06:00

First, I'd like to thank everyone I stayed with out in Virginia, Maryland and Washington last week. I had a great time and I'm looking forward to heading out there again soon. A few things from my trip...

1. Williamsburg, with its three total bars, is quite possibly the most boring college town in all of America. I don't understand how anyone could go to school there for four years, yet alone LIVE there year round. However, Williamsburg does have some great restaurants and very nice people.

2. I think there is a police officer stationed about every 100 yds on every single road in Virginia. Must be nice now that Virginia is clearly a crime-free state.

3. To get truly good crab, you need to eat on one of the coasts. To get truly good crabcakes, you need to eat them in Maryland. Football and crabcakes! Or so the saying goes...

4. The most profitable business on earth is located in Washington DC. It's called Ben's Chili Bowl.

5. If you're a journalist or at all interested in journalism, the Newseum is a must-see on your trip to DC.

6. After a night of drinking in Adams Morgan, grab a jumbo slice. There's nothing anyone needs more at 2 am than a piece of pizza as long as their arm.

7. As a veteran of the Rush/Division bar scene, I've seen my share of bad white girl dancing. However, what I witnessed at Third Edition in Georgetown on Saturday was appalling. Think Elaine Benes - on speed.

8. I'm not sure what's more pathetic: That a bar in DC has bathrooms twice as disgusting as the bathrooms at C.O. Daniel's, or that that bar employs a bathroom attendant to sit in there.

Next stop: Boston

Two Weeks Into the Experiment, Things You Shouldn't Do Part II

2009-01-25T19:23:00.003-06:00

It's been about two weeks into my "bookmaking" experiment with my roommate Ben. For those who are unaware, I told him I would take the other side of any sports bet he wanted - as long as it had published odds - for up to $200 a game (but no Illini games) with no vig to see if he could be profitable. As of right now I'm around even overall and have the Bulls +4.5 and Missouri State -1.5 in action - as well as two more NBA games tonight (can't remember them at the moment).

We did a break-out of Ben's profit by sport and he is doing well at college basketball and NFL, but just spewing money on everything else - most notably women's tennis. A quick note to all: do NOT bet on a tennis player because her name sounds like the name of your favorite vodka. Once the experiment is over, I'll make a more in-depth post about some interesting things I've noticed in his betting patterns but I'll save that for later in case he reads this.

I decided to make a couple wagers myself this afternoon and neither did well. First, after reading about how everyone thought Pittsburgh would beat West Virginia and after watching the line move from West Virginia -1 to West Virginia +1.5, the contrarian in me bet on West Virginia. What happened? I ran right into the Pittsburgh Pain Train (they won by 12). It kind of reminded me a little of buying a stock in freefall. Don't go against the big money. It would be interesting to analyze every game over the past five years or so that has had that big of a spread movement in such a short period of time to see if those teams who were taking the money covered the entire spread range more than 56% of the time.

Another theory I have on sports betting is "if the line looks too good to be true for one team, then bet on the other one." I honestly think this works MOST of the time (at least it has for me). However, tonight it most certainly isn't. Northern Iowa is playing at Missouri State right now. N. Iowa was a 1.5 pt underdog but is in first place in the conference. Missouri State is in 9th place (out of ten). So of course, I took Missouri State, thinking that "somthing must be up." There isn't. Northern Iowa is winning by 17 points with 4:25 to go. Whoops. Maybe I'll just stick to having Ben bet. That way, I don't have to out-think myself on these stupid games.

----------------------
Things You Shouldn't Do II

1. Not keep your eyes open as wide as possible at Funk Groove Bar. By not doing this, you will be escorted off the premises by wannabe secret service agents. Sweet earpieces, guys.

2. Say "yes" when asked if you would like to see what's in a self-proclaimed drug dealer's trunk. Maybe you'll get lucky and it will just be his sound system. However, I'd be willing to bet that more often than not it will be a gun or an icepick.

3. Run on a treadmill in Jesus sandles (or ANY sandles for that matter). Not only does it look ridiculous, but you'll probably destroy your ankles. Oh, did I mention it's also the end of January? Seriously, what is that?

4. Take a dip in the water at the San Antonio Riverwalk. The water's not quite as warm as the air temperature, is it?

5. Drink 17 handles of Svedka vodka BY YOURSELF in a six-month time period - unless of course, getting cirrhosis is a dream of yours.

6. Let Alfonso Soriano bat in the playoffs.

7. Try to make Barack Obama jokes. They're just not funny.

8. Pull your Ford Mustang out of your garage and into an unplowed alley. It just won't end well - unless you're lucky enough to have me walking by to push you out.

9. Get arrested at your company holiday party.

10. Appear on the VH1 reality show "Tool Academy."

Tough Day for Ben

2009-01-25T01:44:00.002-06:00

Back in black, thanks to a cold day for Ben. He dropped $35 to me today over about 14 bets ranging from big time college basketball to women's tennis. My new second favorite team is the California Polytechnic Institute at San Luis Obispo. They're terrible and are big underdogs in almost every game, but whenever Ben bets against them, they not only cover, but win the game outright. Go Mustangs! Ben's strategy of always betting against DePaul also blew up in his face today and it was for a pricey $30.

Overall Total: +$15.50

Do you want a banana?

2009-01-24T18:03:00.001-06:00

Scary American Idol Audition

2009-01-24T17:15:00.001-06:00

Yikes.

Ben the Degen

2009-01-24T11:34:00.002-06:00

I went 6-4 on Thursday night and 7-4 last night thanks to the horrendous NBA and BCS Conference betting Ben is known and loved for. Unfortunately I lost a women's tennis bet for +160 because Flavia Pennetta couldn't win (whoever the F that is) but now I'm only down $19.50. Definitely a nice catch-up last night.

Tonight's games

2009-01-22T15:17:00.003-06:00

The degeneracy continues. Last night Ben the Degen went 5-4 so I'm back to -$63.50. This afternoon he sent me a text with ten bets - two of which weren't even actual games because the teams he picked weren't even playing tonight. However, that didn't seem to phase him as he still took the side of whoever was playing the team he bet against. I don't know about you, but I think that is one solid strategy right there (and watch, he'll probably win anyway). Here are my given sides to tonight's games, all are $10 each.

St Mary's at San Diego +4
Cal Poly SLO +14.5 at Pacific
UCLA at Washington State +5
USC at Washington -5.5
West Virginia +5 at Georgetown
UWGB +9.5 at Butler
UL-Lafayette +13 at W. Kentucky
Wofford +2 at Georgia Southern
Magic/Celtics Over 192
NBA Parlay (his picks):
Lakers -14.5 & Wizards/Lakers Under 207.5

He's basically killing me on non-BCS NCAA Ball (something like 14-5) but losing to me in everything else. I might have to start making my own odds on those games.

Obama, Illini, Results

2009-01-20T22:55:00.002-06:00

Watching the inauguration was pretty cool today. I was at the gym during Obama's speech and I was pretty impressed with how they actually turned off the crappy dance music, turned every TV to CNN and played the audio throughout the entire room. Every single person I saw on a treadmill was also watching the Inauguration, which also surprised me - some of the garbage people watch while they run/walk is pretty astounding.

On an additional note, I also think it's funny how if you told me five years ago that in 2009 the new President's name would be "Hussein" I would've thought that we really messed up that Iraq war pretty bad. I mean, we messed it up pretty badly, but thankfully, not as bad as one would've otherwise imagined four years ago.

----------------------

First college basketball post of the year...I've been holding off until now because I just couldn't bear to write something positive about the Illini and then have them fall flat on their faces (which they could still do). But this year's team is the complete opposite of last year's, despite having basically every single player back. These guys are actually FUN to watch and remind me of the 2005-2006 team, ironically enough, the last Illini team to be ranked in the top 25 before this week. To put it in perspective how long ago that was - Dee Brown was the point guard.

After tonight's dismantling of a good Ohio State team (albeit, without their best player), I'm now a believer and fully expect this team to make the NCAA Tournament (something I didn't even dream I would say at any point this season). At 16-3, they've already matched their entire win total from last season (16-19). What's even more exciting is the fact that the next two recruiting classes are arguably the best recruiting classes Illinois has had in years, so the quality of talent will be even greater in the near future. There is definitely light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm glad it's starting to get brighter this season.

----------------------

Results of Ben the Degen's bets vs. Me tonight (all were $10 each)...

Western Michigan at Ball State +2.5
Ball State 50, Western Michigan 44

Delaware +6.5 at Drexel
Drexel 79, Delaware 69

N.C. State +19.5 at Duke
Duke 73, NC State 66

Michigan at Penn State -2
Penn State 73, Michigan 58

E. Michigan at Northern Illinois -5
Northern Illinois 72, Eastern Michigan 52

DePaul +5.5 at South Florida
South Florida 70, DePaul 61

Total for Day: +$20
Overall Total: -$53.50

My sides vs Ben the Degen 01/20

2009-01-20T17:21:00.002-06:00

Ben just texted me with the games he wants tonight. Here are the sides I have...

Western Michigan at Ball State +2.5
Delaware +6.5 at Drexel
N.C. State +19.5 at Duke
Michigan at Penn State -2
E. Michigan at Northern Illinois -5

My (sort of) bookmaking experiment

2009-01-19T22:08:00.005-06:00

My roommate Ben is a notoriously bad sports bettor. He basically insta-bustos his Sportsbook account whenever he puts money on the site, so I offered to take the other side of any sports bet he wanted except for Illinois games (according to lines on Sportsbook) with NO VIG WHATSOEVER (except on parlays) for any size up to $200/bet. Last week he accepted my offer and what I expected to be maybe a bet or two a week has quickly devolved into a level of degeneracy I could not have possibly imagined. And even worse - he's running super hot against me. Anyway, I thought it would be fun to post the lines I have each day until I decide to pull the plug on this experiment, as well as keep a running total of my P&L. What won't be fun is the fact that I'll have to root for some teams that I really hate (like Kansas and Indiana - which has already happened)

Can someone with an above average knowledge of sports beat a rakeless book? We'll find out here! Here are the completed bets as of this evening with my side indicated. Some of them are pretty hilarious.

01/12
UCLA at USC +2 for $10
UCLA 64, USC 60
Total for Day: -$10
Overall Total: -$10

01/13
Indiana +16.5 at Ohio State for $10
Ohio State 77, Indiana 53
Total for Day: -$10
Overall Total: -$20

01/14
Toledo +10 at Western Michigan for $10
Western Michigan 70, Toledo 52

Bulls +4.5 at Raptors for $10
Bulls 102, Raptors 98

Total for Day: Even
Overall Total: -$20

01/15
Everything was fairly normal up until now, and then Ben starts itching for Ivy League action.

Yale +2.5 at Brown for $10
Yale 70, Brown 62

Wright State at Detroit Mercy +4.5 for $10
Wright State 60, Detroit Mercy 51

Loyola (MD) +6 at Manhattan
Loyola (MD) 58, Manhattan 54

NY Rangers +160 at Blackhawks for $16 (I win $16 or lose $10)
NY Rangers 3, Blackhawks 2

Total for Day: +$26
Overall Total: +$6

01/17
Wake Forest +125 at Clemson for $12.50 (I win $12.50 or lose $10)
Wake 78, Clemson 68

Georgetown at Duke -9 for $10
Duke 76, Georgetown 67

Penn State at Indiana +5 for $10
Penn State 65, Indiana 55

Arizona State +6 at UCLA for $10
Arizona State 61, UCLA 58

Pacific at Cal St. Fullerton -1.5 for $10
Pacific 77, CS-Fullerton 62

San Jose St at Hawaii -1 for $10
SJSU 73, Hawaii 61

Total for Day: -$7.50
Overall Total: -$1.50

01/18
Ben brings out the true degenerate that lives inside him - and proceeds to win nearly every single bet.

Marist +4 at Loyola (MD) for $10
Loyola (MD) 83, Marist 73

Seton Hall at UConn -18.5 for $10
UConn 76, Seton Hall 61

Fordham +19.5 at Rhode Island for $10
Rhode Island 98, Fordham 67

Minnesota at Northwestern -1 for $10
Northwestern 74, Minnesota 65

Missouri State +10 at Illinois State for $10
Illinois State 68, Missouri State 56

Phoenix Coyotes +135 at Edmonton Oilers for $13.5 (I win $13.50 or lose $10)
Oilers 6, Coyotes 3

Eagles at Cardinals Under 47 for $20
Cardinals 32, Eagles 25

Ravens at Steelers -6 for $10
Steelers 23, Ravens 14

Bradley +4.5 at Southern Illinois for $10
SIU 68, Bradley 62

Joe Flacco 1st Pass Incomplete +120 for $5
Despite starting out 1 for 8 passing, the one he completed was his first

Balt-Pitt will either team score in last 2 minutes of 1st half Yes (-160) for $5
Despite having the ball deep in Baltimore territory, the Steelers let the clock expire before scoring an easy field goal

Flacco total rushing yards Under 6.5 for $5
I don't think Flacco crossed the line of scrimmage all game

LeRon McClain 1st rush Over 3.5 yds (+125) for $5
1st rush was 3 yards

Todd Heap Receptions Under 2 (+125) for $5
Heap had 3 catches, all in the 2nd half and 2 in the 4th qtr

Ray Lewis Tackles Under 9.5 (+125) for $5
9 tackles for Ray

Willie Parker 1st rush Over 3.5 yds (+115) for $5
1st rush was 3 yards

Mewelde Moore 1st rush Under 3.5 yds (-135) for $5
1st rush was 6 yards

20 Coin Tosses Heads (Even) for $0.25/toss
14 Heads, 6 Tails. WINNER FINALLY!

Total for Day: -$72
Overall Total: -$73.50

01/19
Syracuse +9 at Pittsburgh for $10
Pittsburgh 78, Syracuse 60

UL-Lafayette +14.5 at UAB for $10
UAB 97, ULL 62

Texas A&M at Kansas -10 for $10
Kansas 73, A&M 53

St. Peter's +9.5 at Manhattan for $10
Manhattan 62, St Peters 60

Cincinnati +6 at Providence for $10
Providence 72, Cincinnati 63

Raptors +7.5 at Hawks for $10
Hawks 87, Raptors 74

Bulls at Knicks -2
Knicks 102, Bulls 98

Spurs at Bobcats Under 178.5
Spurs 86, Bobcats 84

Wizards +4.5 at Warriors
Warriors 119, Wizards 98

Parlay: Blazers -250, Celtics -360, Clippers +6 for $10 (I owe $24.15 if I lose)
Clippers did not cover

Total for Day: Even
Overall Total: -$73.50

Stopped the bleeding today, although I did win the first three games that finished and was only even. Will see what Ben the Degen has in store tomorrow...

Mucked Nuts

Super Bowl Props Updated

A Winning Week - Finally

Rough start to the season (to say the least)

My Thoughts on the Full Tilt Situation

The market and football plays

Week One Recap

The Season

Summer Break

The Eight of Clubs - A Short Story

PokerStars cashout

On the Shutdown & Poker Life - Part Three

On the Shutdown & Poker Life - Part Two

On the Shutdown & Poker Life - Part One

Trade idea: BIOD

Matchbook, Going forward

Sports betting, Poker

I'm back

Week 10 & 11 Recap

Week 8 & 9 Recap

Week 6 & 7 Recap; Schoolyard & Illini

Week 5 Recap

Week 4 Recap, Struggling on PokerStars

Week 2 & Week 3 Recap

We sure do love movies...apparently

Week One Recap

Can I beat the Sportsbook?

I've finally caved...

Why oh why

Support? What support?

Chelsea takes it

Update, More stories

More degen gambling stories

Adventures in River North, Poker, Degenerate Gambling Stories

A laugh from the past - Bruno in Alabama

Three months of awesomeness

Haiti Donations, Rush Poker, Conan

This bear holds a major grudge

Blazin' Wing Takedown

Christopher Walken performs Lady Gaga's Poker Face

Running $3,400 below expected value in two days is pretty messed up...

McKenna for Governor Ad....Seriously??

Didn't hit my goal, but I'm still content

Can't wait to see this

My monthly post

What an awesome blog this is...riiiiiiiiiight

Stock market rally

Get real job, start sucking at poker

Nice work, Lenny

June poker recap - the end of an era

What I do to Automobiles

Searching for Vegas desire

Money Pit, Europe & Las Vegas

The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien

Saving Face, Sorry!, I'm Back For More Cash

Seriously doomed at NL600, Trading tilt

Back to the Grind

Back to Reality

The Dead, Tourney Poker

Blackhawks 1 My stomach 0, Poker

Bets with Ben

Year to date so far

Pitches to television execs

"Ingram to bat the ball away...Williams to tie it with a three! He Does!"

This is what I get for wearing green on St Patricks Day

Friday night action, NCAA Tourney

Bracket Prediction

The Joys of Being Short, Reality TV

So much for that...

Doug Kass, you silly man

Why I'll be crying myself to sleep the next few nights

Most fun I've had in a long time

I heart Rick Santelli

A letter to the girl upstairs

Poker, Trading, Life

Illini > Hoosiers (but then again, who isn't this season?)

Forbes: Chicago 3rd Most Miserable City

Where can I get some Ambien?

Back

Two Weeks Into the Experiment, Things You Shouldn't Do Part II